Mack’s Morning Report – 1-3-16 – Negative Waves, David Thompson

Good morning.

I’m going to try and start anew here on Mack’s Mets, starting today.

I read the comments left here by our wonderful readers and it’s hard for me to believe that this blog is written about the National League Champs!

I’m going to try and stay positive as we move into the new year. There’s nothing I can do about who the Mets sign or who they pass on.

jshapps77, one of our fine readers said the other day:

Why torture yourselves by living in this fictional world where the Mets will sign anyone to a 5+ year contract? The kind of impact bat everyone here seems to clamor for is always going to get that 5-8 year contract, so the Mets are not in play. The Wilpons own this team, and will continue to own it for the foreseeable future, and so, the Mets will not have a big-market payroll for the foreseeable future. I for one, don't care. Sure, it'd be nice, and so much easier, to be able to throw Dodger/Cub/Yankee dollars at a Cespedes/Heyward/Upton-type. But that's not reality. It's time to come to grips with this fact and start enjoying what we do have. We basically know the parameters in which the club will operate:
- Payroll < $130M

- No contracts longer than 4 years
- Offense is more important than defense
- OBP is more important than Batting Average
- SLG is more important than Strike Outs
- Bullpen parts are interchangeable

 Let's focus on players within those parameters, rather than dream on things that will not happen, time and again. If the right players, on expiring deals, are available the trade deadline, Sandy will make that deal again. A short term commitment (Cespedes, Uribe, Johnson, Clippard) for relatively little dollars, that they can move on from. This is the plan. Get on-board. It's makes everything Mets more enjoyable.

If you bother to do the math (and I did) you would find that the 2016 payroll plus the projected arbitration increases for this season are almost identical to the 2015 payroll minus the cost of the part time ballplayers added after the all-star break (Cespedes, etc.) This, to me, seems to be the new template for the Mets who will:

          -continue to try and put out the best product they can at a salary range that will allow them to pay down a mountain of debt.

          - add to the roster key short ranged players to get them to the playoffs

I’m going to try and learn to live with this and root for ‘my’ team with these limitations. Sure, we don’t have our late 2015 season replacement in CF, but you have to be excited with an outfield that now has de Aja and Conforto replacing John Mayberry Jr. and Michael Cuddyer.
I welcome you to join me or I welcome continued criticism. This is a blog. That’s what it’s for.

Did you know… that the Mets drafted last year the guy that hit more home runs and knocked in more runs than anyone else in college?

The Mets drafted 3B David Thompson in the fourth round of last year’s draft, out of ‘the U’, the University of Miami. He finished the 2015 season leading the nation with 19 home runs and 90 runs batted in.
Though Thompson did struggle getting used to ‘the grind’ when he finished the season playing every day for Brooklyn (206-AB, .218), the Mets think they stole this guy when he fell to the fourth round and look upon him as a possible replacement at third when David Wright either retires, moves to another position, or becomes a part time player.

Look for Thompson to play the hot corner beginning in April for Columbia.


Ernest Dove said...

David Thompson is an interesting prospect.
Guys with those stats dont simply fall like that into into the 4th round.
I believe he's the one who had some serious medical issues in the past. Perhaps teams were worried that he would not be able to succeed and be an everyday professional baseball player because of it.
Obviously I wish him well and hope he dominates like he did in college.

Thomas Brennan said...

2016 will be a big year for David Thompson. Just remember he hit .218 in the same league that Danny Muno was .355/.466/.516 in during his debut season a few years earlier. And Danny gets no love.

We will have a solid, competitive, cheap team until further notice. Did I mention cheap? Oh yeah, I did.

Hopefully it will out perform. We don't own the team. We have little say in the decision making process other that to prod and suggest.

Interesting that the Post was stirring the pot over a possible trade of Wheeler and Montero and de Aza for Miller and Gardner. Likely just a writer speculating. Anyone have an opinion?

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

You are right.

He is, at best, a wild card right now, but definitely worthy of a 4th round pick.

Ernest Dove said...

Hey mack regarding the 3B position on the farm where will thompson, urena and eudor garcia be playing and who would be your favorite to be the one to crack the majors of the 3B?

Gary Seagren said...

Look Mack overall I agree with you but it wasn't that long ago that "going for it " meant signing Beltran and trading for Delgado which I also know is like hoping for another 69' 86' season so I'm on board but it's still fun to talk about. (hey Metsblog hasn't had a new post in 4 days) Harper's post about a trade with the evil empire won't happen but what does everyone think...would you do it or not? Not me because I still want to see him post TJ surgery and I love a guy who wants to play for us and that was before our run to the World series. Also did you all see the end of Harper's post about Koufax? He was my idol back in the day and to be reminded of his brilliance and dominance and a time when class and professionalism ruled and he's done nothing since to change my mind. Happy New Year to all.

Anonymous said...

I'm a big fan of the U and watch Thompson on TV and live during the ACC championship tournament in Durham. I noticed a pattern, he struggles big time against 90 plus fastballs. His swing is ferocious but long. It looked like college pitchers knew this as he was attached with fastballs and very little off-speed pitchers. Much like D. Wright is pitched at the ML level. From what I saw I don't expect he will come close to Wright's accomplishments unless he changes his approach, but then the power may trail off. I viewed him as a wish & a prayer draft pick.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

On OD 2016, Urena will be a B-Met, Garcia will be in St. Lucie, and Thompson in Columbia.

My bet, if any, is on Garcia someday.

eraff said...

I would hope Thompson's Sally League stay is Brief. I guy with his exposure and record should be playable at A+... his position is "Bat in Hands", so I wouldn't worry about the overlap at 3b---they can find him ab's at Lucie, and I hope it's very early that they do.

Ernest Dove said...

Does anyone think it actually hurts the development of Urena and Rosario to be starting in Bingo in 2016?
I LOVE Rosario.
Urena basically had a lost 2015 due to injury.
But since there are a bunch of prospects right behind them at their positions they are almost forced into the AA level despite both of them still being very young.
I've been agreeing for awhile now that stats don't really mean a bunch at minor league level (see danny muno stats) ;)
But can Urena and Rosario start producing sexy stat lines at all at the 'showme level' even though they hhaven't dominated any level yet?
(Sorry its still offseason and im taking a work break right now so asking more questions) lol

Mack Ade said...

Gary -

I want to see the 'Big 5' pitch at least one season on the same staff

Herb G said...

2009 payroll - $149 million
2011 payroll - $142 million
From 2008-2011 payrolls among the highest in MLB. What did it get us? Bupkis! Why? Because it was built upon big ticket, longer term contracts. (I'm not saying that the Beltran and Santana deals were bad, but they also had Gary Sheffield, Ollie Perez, Luis Castillo, and an aging Carlos Delgado, who I loved when we traded for him, and later joined by the enigmatic Jason Bay.) Alderson's current approach, avoiding bloated contracts, seems to be working just fine so far. Let's see if his strategy is to use the payroll flexibility that he has created to retain our outstanding core of young players, or of he lets them walk as they outgrow arbitration.

I saw the Harpur trade proposal yesterday, and at first was enamored of it. On further thought, I grew more and more against it. I really don't think Gardner will perform much better that the Legares/De Aza platoon. A little bit higher OBP, but not as much pop. And 3 more years to Miller, a relief pitcher, is risky. So I'll stick with what we have.

greg b said...

This year's Mets Colombia team will be a prospect loaded team from both draft picks and top international players.

Thomas Brennan said...

I agree with Mack...I want to see the Big 5 pitch together. If we wanted Andrew Miller, we should have signed him last year. You can like the Yanks sign a big free agent like Miller, and if you want to change roster, trade him...as Mets could with Cespedes. Just avoid the Bays...that bay water can be swampy.

Herb, I'm with you, and don't make that trade.

I think Eudor, Smith, Becerra, and Rosario have big 2016's. Urena, I am skeptical. I am really excited to see what Mazelka can do in 2016.

bob gregory said...

Not that simple Herb.

The biggest reasons those teams failed mostly due to
1) injury problems.
2) overpaying for the cheaper choice between 2 free agents
(Example choosing Bay over Holliday)

John Looby said...


I'm with you. I want to see the "Big 5" in my rotation for at least one season. Ideally longer. Hell, I'd pitch Harvey until his walk year and take the draft compensation. These guys give you a chance to win every day.

I needed some Mets optimism after my Jets blew it today. Urgh.......

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