1/22/16

D-Whit - The Cespedes Dilemma

19 comments


 


The Mets just signed Antonio Bastardo. That move creates the potential for the team to have a back end that could challenge as one of the top 5-10 in the game especially if Mejia stays clean.  It’s a solid signing and they didn’t have to go three years. But unfortunately, this move is being overshadowed by the news that the dreaded Nats have offered a five year -$100+ million deal to Yoenis Cespedes.  You talk about an example of someone pissing in your cheerios.  But unfortunately, like the Mets, this Washington team would like to win a division and possibly a World Series too. The Mets can build the best rotation money can’t buy to strike fear in enemy hitter’s bats but the Nats want to counteract that strategy with a more offensive one of their own.

 It’s a great and shrewd move by Washington. It’s a nightmare scenario for New York. They are forced into a position where they would have to overspend on both money and years to retain the services of Cespedes or watch him go to their biggest rival. Sandy would be spending future money that is probably allocated in the coming years to retaining their starting pitchers. Also, agreeing to a long-term deal for a 30 year old player goes against Alderson’s philosophy and actions as a GM. But with Washington in hot pursuit, how can he not consider breaking his own rule?. Did I mention that this is the worst case scenario in the Cespedes saga? 

The ramifications of this outcome will impact the short and long term for the Mets. Washington acquiring Cespedes on a 5 year deal is a game changer that puts a huge kink in the idea that the Mets superlative starters will lead them to postseason glory in the next 3-5 years. The problem is, that for all his talent and impact as a player, Cespedes could become a Bay-like albatross by the final two years of five year pact. The wise move would be a heavily front-loaded deal with a buyout in year four. But the seemingly cash-strapped Mets probably can’t go that route and if the Nats are guaranteeing 5 years New York would probably need to meet or exceed that kind of commitment. This is a serious conundrum for the Metropolitans and its braintrust. Maybe they could go the Bonilla route and pay him into his golden years. The way Sandy should and probably will play it is by really selling the stardom factor of New York to Yoenis. That could save the team a few million on the bottom line at least. 

It’s going to be an interesting 48-72 hours either way. If they let Cespedes sign with the Nats it would be a PR nightmare, rile up further a disgruntled fanbase and hinder the Mets chances of winning the NLeast let alone repeating as NL pennant winners. It would also be a s***storm that would linger into spring training and beyond. Sandy has to bite the bullet and sign Cespedes to a long term deal before the Nationals do. Would that be a hasty move? Probably, but can the Mets really expect lighting to strike twice with another deadline deal in 2016. Who could they get? Jay Bruce? Cargo? Corey Dickerson? And if so at what price? If you were Alderson would you want to take that chance? There are a lot of questions but in the end for Met fans really only one answer.

19 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

They could easily have paid for any slugger had they not squandered money on Bartolo Colon (Verrett, Gilmartin and others as 5th starter until Wheeler returns), De Aza (a guy who could have been picked up for major league minimum when he was released last year), Cuddyer's sudden development of a conscience, and various other questionable roster moves that would add up to several other million to spend. That's $24 million right there.

Going after Bruce or Cargo would require the sacrifice of both talent and money. FAs only require money and allow you to retain talent for internal use or more pressing needs later.

I think Cespedes would be foolish to take a short term NY deal with a longer term guaranteed deal awaiting him in DC. I also think that while the club needs a middle-of-the-order bat, he's sub optimal and played over his head for 6 weeks last year and wants to cash in on it. Still, you could probably pencil him in for 25/90 and there's no one on the club currently that could guarantee that level of production. If Cespedes wants some kind of crazy short-term deal with an opt-out, I have no problem with it.

IB said...

After a month the NL figured out how to exploit the holes in Cespedes' swing. I agree, it will be a PR disaster if he signs with the Nats, but I don't see him getting near any of our starting 5 throwing high and hard. It sure will be interesting to watch if this Nat's deal goes down.

Thomas Brennan said...

Do the Cespedes deal. He is not Bay and can be traded in a few years if necessary.

Metsiac said...

You really think the NL pitchers found out in a month what the AL pitchers couldn't in 4 YEARS?

Gee, they're smart! 🤔

bob gregory said...

Cespedes was hurt.
His production went down.

IB said...

@Metsiac - No I'm not saying that at all. The AL knew what they were doing. His numbers in the AL were no where near his amazing hot streak the first month in the NL.

I'm just a fan but it seemed to me, watching, there were a lot of pitchers throwing to his strengths down in the zone. He seemed to fade when they kept the ball up at 95+.

Adam Smith said...

If you an get him on a 3-year deal - one that stops paying out before you have to pay the starters, then you have to pay him. Does he have trouble with elite heat that can locate? Sure. But so does almost everyone, and he can crush everyone else. Especially given the sudden revelation that he really, really wants to be here (or really, really doesn't want any part of the trainwreck that is the Nats), I think you have to go ahead and grab the guy. I honestly think that with him in the lineup, and given the state of the East, we're way better than even money to win the division in '16. Without him, we're still in "anything can happen" territory.

Metsiac said...

IB-- No one in history has ever had a full season with numbers like those of Yo's first month here. But he was a slid run producer for 4 years in the AL, and any decision should be made based on the expectation that he'll be that kind of player for the next 3 or 4.

His August to November numbers are a classic example of "you're never as good as you look when you're winning or as bad as when you're losing".

Anonymous said...

Done deal! All of the Sandy critics need to apologize.....played this very well and he should be praised.

Lew Rhodes said...

And Sandy wins again - all you nay sayers going to finally give him credit?

Nice to go into the season as the NL East favorites

Lew Rhodes said...

And Sandy wins again - all you nay sayers going to finally give him credit?

Nice to go into the season as the NL East favorites

bob gregory said...

What Cespedes signing proves is that the Wilpons are not preventing Alderson from acquiring talent by limiting his payroll. Indisputable now.

It proves Alderson was the driving force in the organization that did not want Cespedes. Disputable, but apparent.

It proves that Alderson felt pressure to acquire a player that he did not really want. Twice. First instance was reported last year. This year Alderson himself made the "square peg in round hole" comment for anything more than 2 years. Well, this contract is possibly 3 years.

bob gregory said...

Where is the praise for the Wilpons for allowing Alderson to acquire Cespedes by raising payroll?

Lew Rhodes said...

It also proves that he got Cespedes at a very good contract for the club - for all you know his earlier comments were negotiation tactics.

And frankly - we all win if this ends up as a one year deal - that will mean Yo had a huge season and likely results in abother run for the Mets

This could not have played out any better for the Mets organization - especially since they puked the Nationals at the end

bob gregory said...

Negotiating tactic in which you insult the person you are trying to acquire??

Imagine a man getting down on one knee. Looking lovingly up at his betrothed, as he insults her just before asking her to marry him.

Anonymous said...

What a shock......the eternal wet blanket bob gregory manages to spin a positive into a negative. I swear you are a trolling Yankee fan, simply here to piss everyone off. You certainly aren't a Mets fan........

bob gregory said...

Seriously?

Do you ever actually read and THINK about the words I actually type?

I do nothing but, want the best for the Mets.

Hmmmm...
Maybe you are just trolling me?
Where's your bridge?

Anonymous said...

I think you are the one who should actually read your "contributions" to this site, bob. Your consistent, negative tone and your borderline psychotic hatred of Sandy Alderson drips off of every word. If that is not your intent (and I highly doubt it), then you should take a step back and analyze your posts.

If it is your intent, then I feel sorry for you. The Mets just completed a great season in 2015 and have actually improved this offseason, making 2016 a season to look forward to. The endlessly negative routine gets old and it is completely out of place, considering the current state of the team.

You should be thanking Sandy and Co, not tearing them down.

bob gregory said...

Psychotic hatred?
Wow.

I guess you read my posting yesterday acknowledging and appreciating Alderson's good qualities as well as you "read" all of my other posts.

You are embarrassing yourself.

Mack's Mets © 2012