9/5/17

Tom Brennan - Mets Rule 5 Draft Perspective

9 comments


Certain minor league players each year are eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  Here is a synopsized version of what I read about Rule 5 guidelines in baseballreference.com:


The Rule 5 Draft is held annually during baseball's Winter Meetings (in December).  Teams must file a 40-man roster with the league office by November 20. 

Any player who fits all of the criteria below is eligible for the Rule 5 Draft:
  • Not on 40 man roster.
  • In minor leagues at least 4 years if signed after age 19.
  • In minor leagues at least 5 years if signed before age 19.

The cost of drafting a player is $100,000 as of 2016. A drafted player must remain on the drafting team's 25-man roster the entire first season he is with the drafting club.

At least 90 days of that 1st season must be maintained at "active status" (not on disabled list). If a player isn't active for 90 days in that 1st year due to a legitimate extended injury, whatever remains of the 90 day obligation MUST be met from the beginning of the following year, his 2nd season with the drafting club.

To be sent to the minors in that 1st year (or a 2nd season extension, due to a legitimate extended injury in the 1st year), the player drafted under Rule 5 must be offered back to the club from which he had been drafted for a $50,000 waiver fee. Should the team from which the draftee was taken not accept him back, it is the same as releasing the drafted player from that team's interest, and the Rule 5 obligations of the drafting team cease upon that release.

Drafting teams could return another player in lieu of the waiver fee if they wish to keep the drafted player in their organization, but send him to the minor leagues during that 1st year's obligation. This effectively converts the acquisition of the Rule 5 eligible player into a trade, rather than continuing the Rule 5 obligations of the drafting team.

Minor league teams can also participate in the draft. AAA teams can draft any player eligible from AA for $24,000. Players chosen in the minor league part of the draft do not need to return to the original teams for any reason. 
TPGMets put out a list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft that are not already on the 40 man roster. 

In my analysis below, I excluded all guys from rookie ball teams, because no team would draft a 4 or 5 year guy from that level of ball for obvious reasons.  So all would have no need to be protected, and few if any will ever make the Mets someday.

Using that accordingly truncated list, assuming its accuracy (I did add Phil Evans to it), I tried to look at it from a Mets executive's viewpoint:

1) Do I think the player will eventually make the majors or not?  That could include players projecting anywhere from a long career to a cup of coffee in the bigs, like Tyler Pill got this year.

2) Do I want to protect those who I think will make the majors eventually?  Since teams have to keep any drafted Rule 5 player for the full season or return him, if I felt that no team would want to do that either because of a guy's limited future big league impact or their being too far from the big leagues to really be ready in 2018, I indicated that they should not be added to the 40 man roster.  A good example is Jeff McNeil, who might be a good utility guy or possible position player in the bigs down the road, but who missed so much time this year and last that it is extremely unlikely another team would draft him.

Anyway, here is my list with my rationale in columns 2 thru 4, showing 8 guys I would want to protect (if we could protect 8):



Rule 5 Eligible List (List Source: TPGMets)


I overlooked a few guys as I was making the list up. But I did not want to mess with my tricky table! So here they are!  All 3 MIGHT be minor league free agents, though, not subject to the Rule 5 draft, due to service time.

One is lefty Al Baldonado, pitching since 2010. Struggling in Vegas, he nonetheless ought to be at least a marginal big league relief arm. Some other team MIGHT decide to draft him.  Another is Xorge Carillo, Vegas catcher.  He is hitting decently, in his 7th season, terrible (10 of 68) at throwing out runners.   Lastly, Hobie's son in law Victor Cruzado, who is having an OK season hitting in Vegas.  Lose with them or without them!



MLB Future?

Protect?

Rationale

AAA Vegas 51s




Phil Evans

Yes

Yes

AA batting champ the last 2 months has hit .330/.395/.520 in AAA.

Jayce Boyd

Maybe

No

Iffy possible big leaguer

Jamie Callahan

Yes

Yes

Legit bullpen arm

Jeff McNeil

Maybe


No


Not yet good enough to be drafted

David Roseboom

Maybe

No

Injury and poor 2017 would not yet interest other clubs

Kelly Secrest

Maybe

No

Not good enough now

Logan Taylor

Maybe

No

Not good enough now

Jhoan Urena

Yes

Yes

Good enough to get drafted

AA Bing. Ponies




Tyler Bashlor

Yes

Yes

Lethal reliever - could get drafted

Patrick Biondi

No

No

Not good enough

Luis Guillorme

Yes

Yes

Some team would pick him

Ricky Knapp

Maybe

No

Borderline guy

L.J. Mazzilli

Unlikely

No

Won’t get selected

Tyler Moore

No

No

Not good enough

Matt Oberste

Maybe

No

Iffy big leaguer

Corey Oswalt

Yes

Yes

Potential #4 starter

Tim Peterson

Yes

Maybe

Iffy that he would get picked; similar skills to Paul Sewald

Colton Plaia

No

No

Not good enough

Champ Stuart

Maybe

No

Iffy big leaguer despite his speed

Adonis Uceta

Yes

Yes

Could get drafted

A: St. Lucie Mets




Gerson Bautista

Yes

Yes

100 MPH pen arm would get picked

Andrew Church

Maybe

No

Borderline at best

Mike Gibbons

No

No

Not good enough

Johnny Magliozzi

No

No

Too many relievers ahead of him

John Mora

Maybe

No

Iffy big leaguer

Alex Palsha

Maybe

No

Too many relievers ahead of him

Josh Prevost

No

No

Not good enough

Scarlyn Reyes

No

No

Not good enough

Enmanuel Zabala

No

No

Not good enough

A Col. Fireflies




Matt Blackham

Yes

Maybe

Terrific year: a team could draft him, but he is 4 levels below the major leagues, so it is unlikely 

Brandon Brosher

No

No

Not good enough

Luis Carpio

Maybe

No

Not close enough

Cameron Griffin

No

No

Not good enough

Jose C. Medina

No

No

Not good enough

Darwin Ramos

No

No

Not good enough

Ali Sanchez

Maybe

No

Not enuf experience

Blake Taylor

No

No

Not good enough

Tim Tebow, having just one year's experience, won't be subject to Rule 5, thankfully :)





9 comments:

Hobie said...

Very nice summary, Thomas. And I don't disagree with any observation...could drop Urena to "maybe draftable" status, but that's nit-picking.

So, we need eight 40-man slots (10 if you include the maybe's). How about two parallel lists: protection priority from your cohort, and reverse protection priority (DFA fodder) from the current 40-man?

Mine:
KEEP -------- DISCARD
Oswalt ------ Pill
Bashlor ----- Malone
Uceta ------- Geoddel
Guillorme --- Reyes/Cabrera (one of)
Peterson ---- McGowan
Batista ------ Snoker
Blackham --- Taijeron
Evans ------- Beccera
Urena ------- Robles

Note: a DW retirement would help & Callahan is already on the 40-man

Eddie Corona said...

Hobie your list is spot on except that both Reyes and Cabrera should be gone

Reese Kaplan said...

Mets hold an option on Cabrera. Reyes is indeed a FA. They also have to decide what to do with non-tender candidate Noi Aoki.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hobie - Great follow up list! I would not, though, put Robles on it, as he (one would think) have some trade value. Putting Wright there, now THAT would be terrific.

Someone asked how players feel about Wright - he said many have real respect for his effort, while others likely view him as an impediment in a young man's game.

Thomas Brennan said...

Reese, Aoki does have some reserve OF skills - he might be a guy they'd want in 2018.

Mack Ade said...

as of last night's win, the Mets now qualify for the 6th pick in the draft

Reese Kaplan said...

I don't deny that, but at a likely $6 million salary with Lagares set to earn $6.5 and Nimmo at minimum wage, I don't think he's a likely choice. His skill set is getting on base. Nimmo does that.

Are you prepared to trot out Cespedes, Lagares and Nimmo/Aoki until Conforto returns? Welcome to cellar dwelling, 2018 edition.

Thomas Brennan said...

Reese, you are right - no, I am not willing to settle for those 4 in the OF until Conforto returns, unless someone can tell me by January that Conforto will be ready for Opening Day...which seems like something it would be too early for them to know.

Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, the scary thing is their remaining schedule will likely prove to be easier than normal, so that could add to the win total and lower the draft ranking. I'd like to draft right behind Philly and Frisco if possible.

Mack's Mets © 2012