9/19/17

Tom Brennan – RHYS HOSKINS AND JOSH PREVOST



This is another tale of draft philosophies.  Some draft philosophies are correct ones, and then there is the Mets’ wrong philosophy.

The Mets have done pretty well drafting a few starting pitchers (Harvey, Matz) and lucky with others in later rounds (deGrom, Lugo). 
Relievers, not well at all (a bunch of guys have done OK in the minors but lack the velocity to dominate major leaguers. So far, Paul Sewald and Chase Bradford).

Hitters?  Pretty awful, thank you.  Yes, Michael Conforto is great, but he fell to them and was clearly a no-brainer pick. 
Other very high offensive picks? The jury is still out on Dom Smith.  Ditto Brandon Nimmo, who at least so far has clearly substandard power for a first round OF. 
Gavin Cecchini?  A puzzling first round pick at the time that still appears puzzling – devoid of power. 
What about 2nd rounder Des Lindsay?  Still waiting for a season of more than 65 games to see if he is prospect or suspect, and how much power he might provide.

The Mets, with the notable exceptions like Conforto and Pete Alonso, seem to avoid draftfew ing power like the plague.  Heck, their one winning minor league team this year was Binghamton and they hit 66 homers – the 2nd to last team hit 89, and the best of the bunch hit 153, or nearly 2 ½ times the Mets' AA rate.

Some teams seek out power, understanding that power is the straw that stirs the drink.  The Yankees will draft a baseball-captivating Aaron Judge and sign a Garry Sanchez (50 major league homers in 622 at bats).  The Mets, on the other hand, sign 16 shortstops a year who combine for 3 homers and weigh as much in total as Judge and Sanchez.

Philadelphia knows that power is valuable in the bigs, and they draft that way…152 homers for their International League AAA team, one of the league’s best – Vegas was close with 146, but in a hitters’ league; in AA, 153 Phils homers vs. Mets’ 66; in High A, 104 Phils dingers vs Mets’ 78; in Full A, 84 over the wall from Phils’ bats vs. Mets’ 67; in NY Penn ball, 45 “outa here” vs. Mets’ 17; in GCL ball, 25 vs. Mets’ 14.  So on those 6 levels, the Phils hit 175 more homers than the Mets’ teams.  Because the Mets hate to draft power.  Despise it.  Recoil from it.

One such Phils power signing was 2014 5th rounder Rhys Hoskins.  The Mets decided that they did not need to try a power bat in that draft with a relatively high selection, and 3 picks later in round 5 drafted forgettable starter/reliever Josh Prevost, with an underwhelming 125 Ks in 183 IP.  That K rate is far from an OK rate, OK?

Rhys Hoskins in 900 minor league at bats in 2016 and 2017 hit 67 homers; in the big leagues, a major league record 17 homers in his first 33 games through September 13.  But our wonderful organization’s preference?  Not a power hitter.  Nope.  A “solid” minor league reliever in Prevost who was clearly not a flame thrower.  Why, you never know when a guy like him might be the next Eddie Kunz, right?  Eddie was so steady…he got steadily worse, for anyone paying attention.

The round before, the Mets picked Eudor Garcia, a seemingly decent bat but not a HR POWER bat.  He hit just 16 homers in 900 plate appearances before heading to Tijuana to play for the Toros.  The land of siestas!

Who else have they picked in the 4th and 5th rounds recently?  Oh me, oh my, you had to ask?

In 2013, the utterly mediocre Jared King in the 5th round, and equally mediocre LJ Mazzilli in the 4th round.  No power there for either.  In 3,316 minor league at bats the 2 combined for 35 homers, or 1 every 95 plate appearances.  Dead ball era stuff.  Mazzilli went in the same round, by the way, as LAD Cody Bellinger, who will win NL Rookie of the Year over Rhys Hoskins because LAD drafted for power and Cody has hit 37 homers in 116 games in his rookie campaign.

2012, in the 4th and 5th rounds, Branden Kaupe and Brandon Welch were selected.   “Good or bad does not matter this season, boys, just pick me a Brandon or two.”  The 5’7” Kaupe went to the plate 600 times and managed 4 (yes just 4) doubles and 6 triples.  Homers?  “No, sir, those fences are just too deep for me.  I almost hit one in batting practice, though.  And two of my longest shots equaled one of Aaron Judge’s, isn’t that enough?” 

Welch, like Kaupe, was released from rookie ball Brooklyn; the non-fireballer fanned 43 in 65 innings. “Those 6 K per 9 inning guys in rookie ball project out to 1.6 Ks per 9 innings at the big league level, we’ll take 3 of those, please,” said Sandy Alderson.

 In 2015, OK, I concede a bit, they did OK - they picked pitcher Tom Szapucki (very good pick) and David Thompson (modest power, time will tell if his ceiling is AAA or MLB).

2016?  Picked in the 4th round was diminutive IF Michael Paez (another 5’7” guy – so many teams pick future MLB stars that are 5’7” right?) with some power (12 homers in 700 plate appearances, .230).  In the 5th round, a wildly whiffing SS (58 Ks in 179 ABs this season) with little power (Colby Woodmansee) whose career stats are .213/.268/.276.  “Love those low power, high strikeout hitters, don’t you, boys?  Let’s draft several of these this year.”

In 2017, a hopefully good reliever in Tony Dibrell in round 4, and (not to be insulting, since his is a limited sample) powerless Matt Winaker (1 double in 86 plate appearances) in the 5th round.  When I say one double, I am implying there are no triples and no homers, in case you are unsure.

So, Mets' braintrust (seemingly short on brains and we can't trust them), draft for power please – sometimes (when you do, as with 7th round Lucas Duda) you just get lucky.  Stop drafting guys with average speed, low-to-non existent power, and nice smiles.  I’ll take power and scowls myself.  Not that Rhys Hoskins scowls.  He will, howeved, help the Phils win and draw fans.
But I tell you what, can we ask the Phils if we can have Rhys Hoskins and they can have all of the 4th and 5th rounders I list above in exchange?  I don’t think they’ll bite, do you?  But it can't hurt to ask - so much quantity for just one guy.
You want power, draft power hitters - or pay $110 million for 4 years to buy one - it is up to you.

12 comments:

Unknown said...

The really sad part is will this ever change as the philosophy from the top down sucks and there's no indication of anything changing. It took a 11 run deficit in the 7th inning for the Genius to finally play all the kids because he's still not sure he's seen enough of AC, Reyes and Aoki to make a decision on them and this is the team we root for.

Mack Ade said...

good analysis...

I have never understood the Mets draft philosophy. I will say this... rounds 6-10 seem to be becoming the area in which they concentrate on good college relief pitchers.

We're going to get a top 8 pick this ear... maybe as high as 4 or 5. There will a good chance for a 'big bat' here.

Keep up the pressure Tom.

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks, Mack, and I agree...this organization has never sufficiently valued big bats in the draft - and the results show it. Too many punch and judy hitters. Lots of low level major leaguers are produced but few star type hitters. Guys who you look at and say "I want THAT GUY IN MY LINE UP EVERY DAY."

Hoskins was there for the taking. So was Bellinger. So was Bichette. They need to stop making BIG mistakes like that.

Gary, I am all in on the kids - sit the darned veterans already - who the heck is running this show????

Reese Kaplan said...

I'll go back further. They drafted Daryl Strawberry. They signed Nelson Cruz as a free agent kid. Anyone else...Beuller???

Viper said...

You all know how I feel about these idiots in charge so today I am just going to ask a simple question.

Tell me one good thing the Mets organization is good at that relates to drafting, developing, evaluating, training, running a MLB organization.

Anyone, I need to find something to feel good about this team.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, they excel at moving their prospects onto the Tommy John surgery operating table.

That Adam Smith said...

I'm not only all in on the kids for the rest of this year, but next year too. Play Plaw, Rosario, Smith, Nimmo, and Flores full time next season and let's see what we have. I'd be good with Guillorme as utility guy as well. Let's face facts, so much would have to go right for us to contend next season, and the FA clad is so much better in '19, that it seems like the only smart move. Also, draft better. Sheesh.

Tom Brennan said...

Adam, I agree. I will daydream at times as to what the staff could be like next year if all goes right...Wheeler back and ready...Matz ready to excel...Harvey back to close to Dark Knight status... Syndergaard dominant again....Gsellman and Lugo more like late 2016...Montero finally shakes off the ups and downs and establishes himself...but it is much more likely that reality will be "better than 2017, but far from elite starting in 2018 anyway"...and will Cespedes be Superman or super disappointing in 2018...if more sputtering is the likely scenario, playing kids in 2018 and big FA spending in 2019 sounds sensible.

Just remember that the Yanks across town are bursting with talent, including Ruth and Gehrig Part II, so the Mets would have to be willing to concede the town to the Yanks next year.

Viper said...

Thomas, I said something to feel good about. This, although true, doesn't qualify. lol

Adam,
No player can be properly evaluated as long as Terry Collins is the manager. There is no reason why after 3 years, the Mets are still evaluating Flores. He is a 25hrs, 70/80 rbi 270 hitter and that should be good enough for 2B with these Mets. He is the backup to 1B in case Smith doesn't work out. That's it. No more 3B experiments.

Plawecki is to be evaluated, Collins plays d'NO every other day.
He plays Reyes and Cabrera instead of Cecchini and Evans and Aoki instead of Taijeron. I don't watch the games anymore, too annoying just looking at the lineup. How about pitching all those great relievers that the Genius traded for?

Eddie from Corona said...

Bellinger in the same round as Mazzilli ? I cant say what i really think...
The draft process kills as you have to "SAVE MONEY" to sign other picks later in the draft... awful system...
I agree with some of you that we should make it a lost year in 2018 (like we havent had many of those)...
we should not spend much in this free agent class as its really not a good one...
Marchado, Harper, donaldson... Any of those would have to be a target ...
even Harper would hurt the Nationals and help us in the 4 hole... (and by then its only 2 years left of cespedes).

Tom Brennan said...

Eddie, I do not have a problem drafting a son on a former Mets star if it is in the proper round. Mazzilli to me is like a 12th - 20th rounder, not a 4th rounder. What a waste.

Not sure if you knew, but John Franco's son signed with Columbia mid-season and played well - but his chances at 25 of vaulting all the other middle infielders and making the majors is extremely slim - but he seems almost as good as Mazz, and did not require a Mets draft pick, just Atlanta's 38th pick when they drafted him.

Viper said...

With the luck this team has had in drafting pitchers in the first round, I don't understand why they don't pick a position player instead. They don't require TJS as often and pan out more times than pitchers.

Build a great team of position players and buy the pitching in free agency. Isn't that pretty much what the Cubs did?

Mets? no, lets pick the Nimmo's and Cecchini's in the first round.