9/13/17

Tom Brennan: SMALL SAMPLES, "WINNING" APPROACH

11 comments

Tom Brennan: SMALL SAMPLES, WINNING APPROACH

Mets get trounced by the Cubs last night 8-3.  The young pitchers for the Mets did not do well, but they were mostly small sample guys, that is guys who have only pitched in a small sample of games.  Flexen got to relieve, and not well...a 7.88 ERA is not at all good in his small sample.  Gsellman stunk again - his enlarging season's sample is up to 101 IP, with an ugly 5.58 ERA. 

Mr. Rhame gave up a run, his first in his small sample of 3.1 IP this year. Keep pitching him.  Milone (7.52) and Smoker (also 5.58) both surrendered homers in their 1 inning, no surprise since we've seen enough of a sample of both already to know they are not answers for a team that intends to win in 2018.  Pitch them to get better draft slots in 2018.

The first 3 guys in the line up, though?


Veteran faces Reyes, Aoki, and Cabrera. 

Reyes and Cabrera we have large samples for - we know what they can do.

Aoki, perhaps the Mets are very seriously looking to sign this off season as a cheap replacement to Jay Bruce (who Cleveland wanted so they could win 20 straight), because the Mets love cheap...if that is the logic for playing him and not Nimmo, I can understand it but not like it.

But Reyes, Cabrera an Aoki played because, what??  Terry wants to win now?  STOP PLAYING VETS SO MUCH!  Let's evaluate young guys, lose more in the process, and get better draft positioning.

We have small samples on other Mets hitters, each of whom warrant larger evaluation samples.  Such as:

PHIL EVANS: he lined out as a pinch hitter last night.  He is now 1 for 3, a lined double and two line outs in 3 at bats.  Very small sample but I like guys who can hit line drives constantly, so can we start him several games at least, please, and see what a larger sample of Evans looks like. 


Did his AAA hitting warrant my optimism?  Well, in July-Sept, he was up 217 times, and hit .332 with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 7 HRs and 31 RBIs, so the answer is EMPHATICALLY YES.

TRAVIS TAIJERON: K King 0-3 last night, and has fanned 15 times in 33 plate appearances.  A logical person would say he is a lost cause, but he does have a .242 OBP to go with his .138 average; his career minors OBP is .372 and his slugging % .514, so I would continue to run him out there for two reasons: to see if he can do a lot better somehow (closer to his minor league #'s), and if not, to lose games while experimenting and get a higher draft pick as a reward.

BRANDON NIMMO: sat last night...he deserves to play every day the rest of 2017, to give him ample opportunity to show whether he is a guy who would be a 2018 asset if he were given 500 plate appearances.

JUAN LAGARES: ditto...he needs to enlarge his small sample by playing daily.  He has been his own worst enemy repeatedly getting hurt...but he is such a good defender...so I would play him every day to see if he deserves 400-500 at bats in 2018.  He was 3 for 23 in a barely used April - toss that out and he since has hit .278 (47 for 169) and decent with extra base hits over that stretch too (18 XBH).  That sort of rate of offense with the top tier defense could warrant nearly full time play in 2018.

AMED ROSARIO: his small sample needs to expand to daily play if healthy. He'll be our 2018 SS, so his expanded sample is simply to push him up his learning curve in a lost 2017 year so we can hopefully get All Star caliber play in 2018.

DOMINIC SMITH: mostly ditto, except there is at least a chance he will be a part timer next year, or even head back to AAA for more seasoning, given his struggling play so far.  Play him daily, vs. righties AND lefties: get him as prepared as possible for potentially lots of 2018 playing time. 

MATT REYNOLDS: the more he plays, the more he seems like another Eric Campbell with the bat, but I would play him as much as possible down the stretch to see if he should be kept around next year.  He has hit .258 in 47 at bats in August and September, so get him another 47 ABs the rest of the way to see if he is any good.


GAVIN CECCHINI: after a poor fielding, strong hitting AAA season in 2016, he had a good fielding, weak hitting 2017 in AAA, and is just 10 for 52 in the bigs this year.  My STRONG guess is he needs a 3rd year in AAA, because a contending Mets team in 2018 does not need marginal hitters.  I do not see where a larger sample from here until year end will change that.


TOMAS NIDO: the just called up defensive catcher hit just .232 in AA.  That says loudly that he needs 2018 in AAA to refine his hitting skills, so I would still give d'Arnaud and Plawecki nearly all the at bats the rest of the season, and not Nido, to get the former two as ready as possible for a platoon 2018.  Nido being here now is a good idea, to get his feet wet now for if (when) one of the former two gets hurt in 2018. 

The idea is to try to win a World Series in 2018, not rebuild, so part of that is assessing what you've got here right now.  Maximize the value of that assessment through larger sample sizes now.


11 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

I'm probably the loudest voice of the "Play the Kids" chorus, but perhaps the reason they keep trotting out Reyes and Cabrera is to decide what to do with them next year. Reyes is a FA and they have to figure out whether or not they want to be in the bidding. Cabrera has a $2 million buyout or an $8.5 option. That's 6.5 million reasons why they need to be sure what to do with him.

Or it could be that the manager is simply an idiot. That's a distinct possibility, too. :)

Thomas Brennan said...

Door # 3

Thomas Brennan said...

How does Cleveland win 20 straight and Dodgers lose 11 straight? Weird.

Reese Kaplan said...

The weirdest part is that they've won the 20 straight with relatively little contribution from our former right fielder.

Thomas Brennan said...

The Bruce Aura must have kicked in. he has a history of being on losing clubs, so maybe Bruce's luck has switched.

Viper said...

Reese, if by now the Mets don't know what they have in Cabrera and Reyes...they are totally clueless?

The Mets have spend half of the year saying how bad Cabrera is for the moral in the clubhouse and if that's the case, just get rid of him.

Reyes would be a good bench player for the Mets.

Aoki is here because these GMs like to pick up other teams garbage players and Collins will play them because they are veterans.

At this point of the season, I would sit Aoki, Reyes, Cabrera, d'NO and play Evans at 3B, Cecchini 2B, Nimmo RF, Taijeron/Reynolds LF, Plawecki C.

Lets see what they have. Nido? I have no idea why he is even here.

No more Milone, Gsellman.

Thomas Brennan said...

Viper is my next manager. Spot on!

Robb said...

I understand them playing cabrera at 3rd base. It would be nice to know if he is a viable stop gap for next year until wright retires and they can go after Machado. The rest not at all. Play the kids. i dont understand not putting the kid relievers they got in trades into high leverage situations instead using sewald, and blevin for the 95th times. Sewald and blevins will be there next year save the innings on their arms.

everyday it should be regardless of pitcher:

rosario
nimmo
Smith
Cabrera (3b)
catcher
cecchini
legares
LF (taijero/Reynolds)
pitcher

if you want to move legares up to leadoff just slide everyone else down one slot.

Thomas Brennan said...

Robb, makes sense, but I want Evans out there myself

TexasGusCC said...

Bozo the Manager wants to win because he figures he won't be back next year. So, since he will go out, it will be his way. Kids sit. It's comical how often I hear what a great guy he is when I consider him the biggest a-hole of all the Mets managers. A loser and not wanted in every place he has managed in before Queens.

Thomas Brennan said...

TexasGusCC, if he keeps playing more than one of Aoki, Reyes, and Cabrera nightly, the term Jackass would not be too strong. Play the kids. Lose games. Get great draft picks. Hope the dumb draft selectors start to get it right more. That is the formula for long term success.

Mack's Mets © 2012