Good morning.
I know this is early, but I thought you would like to see how
my mind is working right now regarding the Mets first pick in the 2018 Draft.
A few things first…
Let’s remember one
thing. You can’t pick your choice until five other teams pick theirs. And there
is truly no way of predicting that in stone. SS Carlos
Correa is one of the premier shortstops in the game, but it was a shock
when he was picked 1.1 in the 2012 draft by the Houston Astros.
Another thing. Some
teams pick a player because they may have someone else on their board as a
higher pick, but they just feel they can’t afford to pass on a certain player
and let another team pick them. This is how ‘runs’, by position, are created in
rounds. Correa’s pick in 2012 caused four more shortstops to be picked in the
first 25 picks of that draft.
Bur no position can
create a run more often than starter pitching. Have two or three of them picked
early and all of a sudden team execs are trembling not to get in on the action.
I’m not sure how deep
the talent goes in this draft, but I do know one thing. There may never have
been a better top 10 list of starters than the 2018 draft offers to teams.
It will be hard pass on
a pitcher here.
Choices would be RHPs Brady Singer (Florida), Jackson
Kowar (Florida), Casey Mize (Auburn), Kumar Rocker (N. Oconee HS – GA) and LHPs Shane McClanahan (USF), and Matt
Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS – AZ).
On the field, there
really were only four players to pick from that have showed the talent to
warrant a top five pick, and one, Oregon State 2B Nick
Madrigal, hit the DL last week with a broken wrist. He’s still go in the
first round, both not in the top five.
The other three are all
shortstops… Brice
Turang (Santiago HS -CA, Nolan Gorman
(O’Connor HS – AZ), and Nander De Sadas (Montverde
Acacamy – FL).
Now, you know I’ve told
you time and again that a team doesn’t draft early by position. They simply
pick by best player available at the time of the pick. That being said, there
is no whey in hell, with Amed Rosario in Queens,
and Luis Guillorme, Gavin Cecchini, Andres Gimenez,
Gregory Guerrero, and Ronny Mauricio in
the pipeline, are the Mets going to bring in another one to play this position.
It’s not going to happen. No way. Uh huh.
This leaves the Mets to
pick from the pitchers left over that aren’t picked by the teams with the top
five picks.
1.1 Detroit Tigers - RHP Brady Singer Univ. of Florida
The Tigers love
pitchers with killer fastballs and there is no way in hell they are going to
pass on Singer, who is the darling of just about every pundit that is posting
their mock drafts on the net.
Singer, one of the top names from next year's draft class, is
the master of a fastball with potent arm-side run that will draw ugly swings
from batters and make fans drool. He sits in the low-to-mid 90s, but that's
more than enough velocity to make it a real weapon. He pairs his brilliant
fastball with a slider that he threw in high school, but refined in college
with the help of Alex Faedo, another recent
Tigers draft pick known for his vicious breaking ball.
Through the weekend
ending 3-4, Singer is 3-starts, 19-IP, 3-0, 2.84, 17-K, 1-BB
The Tigers could
surprise here and choose someone else, but I don’t think so. I’ve never seen a
more solid lock at 1.1 in a draft.
1.2 San Francisco Giants RHP Ethan Hankins Forsyth
Central HS (GA)
There are great college
pitchers like Kowar, Mize, and McClanahan still on the board, but Hankins is
easily the best high school pitcher in the nation.
McCovey Chronicles
said this about the possibility of the Giants picking Hankins:
Hankins, is ... 18 years old
A right-handed pitcher out of Georgia… 6’6”… able to throw a fastballs
in the mid-90s with movement… able to throw wicked breaking balls… able to
control them better than the typical high-schooler… Which are all things you
would expect from a second-overall pick. Put it all together, and it looks like
this:
M-C points out that
things could change if someone comes out of nowhere and dominates the second
half of their season (my guess: Liberatore), but, for now, Hankins is a lock
for being the Giants pick at 1.2.
1.3 Philadelphia Phillies SS Brice Turang Santiago
HS (CA)
Now we go to the
standout middle infield in the draft. Jonathan Mayo had this to say about
Turang:
Turang entered the summer as perhaps the best player in the
class, high school or otherwise, and he didn't do anything to diminish that
evaluation. He's shown he can definitely stay at shortstop, while also proving
adept at moving over to second if needed. Turang has an advanced approach at
the plate, with power to come, and his speed plays on both sides of the ball.
The Good Phight,
a Phiily Blog, said this about the possibility of them taking Turang in the
draft:
I’ve said this is a weak draft, and I think it is, but it’s
not bereft of talent. All of the talent is pretty flawed, but if that talent is
able to address flaws this year there are 5 or 6 guys with real star potential
and several possible MLB regulars. Most won’t pan out, so this is where the
Scouts will make their money this year.
Brice Turang is a 6’0”, 165 lb. Left handed hitter who plays
Shortstop from Corona, Ca. Somehow he’s the only top ranked High School
prospect from California on most lists. That’s really bizarre for a state that
typically litters the first round of the draft with players. Turang gets some
interesting comps for a shortstop, the most common one I’ve seen is Christian
Yelich. I can see it, we’ll talk tools more below, but they line up pretty well
(if you project some Power as he fills out).
I agree with The Good
Phight. The Phillies will pass on a pitcher and turn to the most talented infielder
in the draft and a projected lock to be a big time star in this game.
1.4 Chicago White Sox LHP Shane McClanahan USF
For a long time,
McClanahan had been projected as being available when the Mets pick would be
coming up at #6 and they had guys like Rocker and Koward being picked ahead of
him. Right now, McClanahan is the better pitcher of the three.
Through the weekend
ending 3-4 - 3-starts, 18-IP, 2-1, 0.00, 3-R, 0-ER, 32-K, 7-BB
Did you catch the
strikeouts and innings pitched just quotes? 32 in 18.
Southside Showdown
is a CWS blog that says it’s not who you draft. But how you draft:
It’s fair to say that White Sox general manager Rick Hahn is building his team’s overall capital, a
combination of developable and marketable (ie. tradeable) talent. With the
amount of young starting pitching the team has amassed, would it make sense to
continue adding starting pitching depth? Sure – if the team determines the
player drafted would have the highest value to the team, or that starting
pitching would be the most marketable talent to trade for those necessary
assets the team isn’t able to develop or sign via free agency.
I agree. You can’t have too much great pitching, both to put
on the mound and the create a quality trade, and right now, McClanahan out
trumps both the rest of the pitchers plus all the field personnel.
1.5 Cincinnati Reds IF Nolan Gorman O’Connor
HS – AZ
The Reds are pretty
deep in their pipeline, created from being a team that has picked early over
the last number of years. They don’t have to go in any particular direction,
including pitching, which they have many of in their system (Hunter Greene, Tyler Mahle, Tony Santillan).
Drafting Gorman could
allow the Reds to move their top prospect, 3B Nick
Senzel, to move to second and creating a star studded future infield in
the 2020s. Sort of what we are trying to do with Amed
Rosario and Luis Guillorme.
I think they go infield
here and Gorman would be the pick.
1.6 – New York Mets RHP Jackson Kowar Florida
Frankly, we had a lot
more to pick from here than we did a month ago when I projected McClanahan or
Mize. Now it’s either Kowar or Kumar, as well as the other two (I still
consider Liberatore a long shot here).
Let me say this… I don’t
think any of them are a miss here, but I said that last year when I
consistently called for the Mets to pick David Peterson.
Kumar is tempting, but
you know I’m a sucker for a power college weekend starter. Kowar would easily
be the Friday starter at Florida if it wasn’t because he was on the same roster
as some guy named Singer.
Through the weekend
ending 3-4 - 3-starts, 19.1-IP, 3-0, 18-K. 7-BB
Yeah… I’m going with
the big guy here.
11 comments:
Nice write up, Mack. I agree you go with the BPA in most cases, but you can never have enough pitching (as you point out). A college arm will pay off faster, it usually with less risk and and lower ceiling (more developed). A HS arm has more risk and potentially a higher ceiling as there is room to grow.
Tough choice since our system has some pitching in the short term. I like the kid from USF because he is a lefty and he is closer to Queens then some of the others. But he may be gone as you stated......the Rocker kid would be intriguing and it would backfill the pitching depth in the lower minors.
Either way, I like the choices at #6 and hope Sandy chooses wisely.
Mike -
Thanks.
I'm usually wrong about these things, but I'm not wrong when I state who the top players are out there.
This is a great draft for picks 1-40.
I don't think the Mets will miss with their first pick and have a good chance of picking another good one with their 2nd round pick.
Hi, Mack, I prefer Gorman...give me a bat.
Matt Olson was the 47th pick in 2012...the 23 year old hit an astonishing 24 homers for Oakland in 189 At bats in his rookie debut. Mets need to look for THAT.
We, by the way, picked Cecchini at 12 and Plawecki at 35.
It’s very hard to predict how kids will develop in five years, so you just draft tools. For all the middle infielders the Mets have accumulated, none are star quality. Further, Mack you start by saying that you draft the best available player, but don’t follow your own rule. I’ve learned in life that is usually a regret. So, I’m sticking with the best offensive bat in a system that lacks offensive bats and taking Madrigal.
Would have preferred a stud outfielder, but, there aren’t any. Have really stockpiled in arms and may also get another good one in Round 2, but offensive guys that we have passed on have included Cory Saegar: No Way Again! For a backup plan, I like Banfield as stud catchers are hard to come by and the Metsies don’t have one, but catcher is also the hardest position to project.
Tom
Picking as early as early as we do means we literally get 2 ++ players in the top 2 rounds.
I expect to go OL in both the 2nd and 3rd... Wait... That's the giants...
Tex
You are wrong.
I am taking the BPA. None of the bats in this draft other than the ones I already projected, are projected higher than 3 to 4 pitchers out there
Madrigal did until he broke his wrist
If Madrigal's writs heals fine (I broke mine once and I never ever feel anything abnormal with it) and he is not deemed brittle, and plays well again pre-draft, I would not push him down in the rankings because of it.
I get a little concerned for a small guy - too easy to get hurt somewhat and have the skill set drop more than for a big guy.
Mack and Tom,
Madrigal is short but not necessarily small. He has a thick frame so the fact that they say he runs well surprises me. In fact, when I saw his highlights, he looked like Babe Ruth running around the bases. But then I remember Ruth was actually quite a good athlete himself and ran well.
Mack, if the pitcher is the best player available, fine. But in a system lacking offense because all they ever did was draft arms, they need offense. The Cubs and Dodgers buy the arms and are loaded with bats. Every year, the Mets lineup looks like the leftovers from the little baseball sister of the poor.
Texas-
Good points.
But I've been doing this for years and one thing is a constant.
There are 10 positions in baseball, if you include DH and RP as a position... and 60+% of the top 10 players picked over the last 20 years have been starters.
They offer a team two things... the quickest road to success and the chip needed to trade and fill any opening you have in the field.
No one wants a big bat drafted more than me... and it kills me to not pick Seth Beer here... but his defense is too flawed.
Past him, the only choice would be Jered Kelenic who would be at least 5 years away
I'm not wasting my 1.6 on a maybe.
Well said Mack...
Hey Mack, you think the Mets would do an overdraft with pick 1.6? Meaning do you think they would draft Travis Swaggerty with their first pick at below slot $ so they can use the savings to spread their draft pool money on other high end prospects at pick #46 and beyond? Swaggerty is having a really good start to his season and as a college outfielder could arrive in time for when Cespedes and Bruce contracts expire?
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