The only way for the Mets to assure themselves a post-season
berth is to unseat the perennial champion Washington Nationals. While there’s always optimism come opening
day, do the Mets have enough to do so?
If you do a position-by-position comparison, it’s going to be an uphill
climb.
1st Base
While the Mets will trot out some combination of Adrian
Gonzalez, Wilmer Flores, Dom Smith and/or Jay Bruce to anchor the infield, all
the Nationals have is Ryan Zimmerman. He
provided 36 HRs and 108 RBIs last year while hitting .303. I think that’s a pretty clear edge to the
Nationals.
2nd Base
The Mets have Asdrubal Cabrera. The Nationals have ex-Met Daniel Murphy. Moving right along…
Shortstop
Wunderkind Trea Turner in most of a full season provided the
Nats with 11 HRs and 45 RBIs while stealing a whopping 46 bases and hitting
.284. The most optimistic among us would
do cartwheels if Amed Rosario could approach these numbers but at this point
the edge must go to Washington.
3rd Base
While the Mets brought on board a 3 WAR player in Todd
Frazier to replace the ever ailing David Wright, the Nationals have to make do
with Anthony Rendon. All he did last
year was hit .301 with 25 HRs and 100 RBIs.
While Frazier’s HR total may indeed be higher, expect the batting
average and RBI numbers to be way lower.
Again, edge to the Nationals.
Catcher
It’s seemingly not often that Washington hits a clinker when it comes to personnel decisions but the former Oriole, Matt Weiters, did not justify their expenditure last year. Providing a .225 average with 10 HRs and 52 RBIs over the course of 422 ABs already pales next to Travis d’Arnaud’s .244/16/57 in about 76 fewer ABs. Add in the strong finish and spectacular spring (along with Kevin Plawecki) and finally the Mets have an edge at a position.
Left Field
Adam Eaton’s first season in DC was a lost one due to
injury, but if you go back to his last full season in Chicago he provided a
.284/14/59 with 14 stolen bases. Those
are solid numbers but should pale next to a healthy Yoenis Cespedes. Edge Mets.
Center Field
While Michael Taylor had his best yet season in 2017, his
slash line of .271/19/53 with 17 SBs is probably what you might get from a
Brandon Nimmo full season. Of course,
Nimmo is merely the 4th outfielder and will give way to Michael
Conforto who hopes to build on his 2017 All Star campaign. Edge Mets.
Right Field
Which Bryce Harper will the Nationals get this year? Is he the .330 hitting slugger with 42 HRs
and 99 RBIs of 2015 or is he more like the last two years where he didn’t
eclipse 30 in HRs and RBIs were in the upper 80s? If it’s the latter then the edge might go to
Jay Bruce in an average year provides 32 HRs and 96 RBIs – both better numbers
than Harper – but the batting average is significantly less at .249. In a walk year for Harper I would expect he’s
motivated to come up big time so I’d still give the edge to the Nats’ right fielder.
Starting Rotation
While you could make the argument that Noah Syndergaard has
more talent than Max Scherzer, the fact is that for consistency and health you
have to give an edge to the 3-time Cy Young Award Winner.
Stephen Strasburg has had a dominant career beset by
injuries. Still, last year the Nat’s
number two had spectacular season, going 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA. For his career he’s at a very impressive
3.07. However, the Mets number two
starter, Jacob deGrom, has an even gaudier 2.98 ERA for his career and his
peripheral numbers are comparable. It’s
a push.
Gio Gonzalez also put together his finest campaign in 2017
but for his career he’s a winning pitcher with 3.64 ERA and a mediocre
WHIP. Even with the injuries and the two
horrific years in a row Matt Harvey’s career numbers are better but until he
proves healthy I’d call this one a push as well.
Tanner Roark was the rare Nats’ pitcher who had a poor year
in 2017 by his standards. His record was
positive at 13-11, but his ERA was 4.67 and his WHIP 1.33. It was nearly 2 full runs worse than his 2016
campaign, but he’s still a respectable 3.41 for his career. Steven Matz is a work in progress due to the
myriad of injuries he’s suffered. If he
could ever put together a full season injury free he would likely be a far superior
choice, but at this stage the numbers and health favor Roark.
The Nationals have something of a wildcard in the 5th
starter slot with A.J. Cole. He’s 4-7
for his caerer over 22 games (17 starts) with a 4.52 ERA. That’s not much of a track record on which to
project, but then neither does Seth Lugo have much of a record either. He’s 12-7 over 26 starts with a 3.92
ERA. If that was the battle I’d give the
edge to Lugo, but it’s likely fairer to do a comparison to Jason Vargas who
would also get the nod with an edge to the Mets.
Bullpen
Sean Doolittle had a terrific first year as closer for the
Nationals with a WHIP of just 1.00 to go along with 21 saves in 22 save
opportunities and a 2.40 ERA. Until
Jeurys Familia proves he’s healthy (and after just a single strikeout all
spring), you have to give the nod to Washington.
Ryan Madsen, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit give the
Nats some formidable veteran arms to back up Doolittle. The Mets counter with the very solid Jerry
Blevins, the somewhat erratic AJ Ramos, and one-year-wonder Anthony
Swarzak. That’s pretty much a push.
Bench
The Nationals’ bench starts off quite well with Howie
Kendrick and Matt Adams, both professional hitters. Then it starts to weaken rapidly with an
over-the-hill Miguel Montero and role players Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin.
The Mets’ bench includes Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Juan
Lagares and Phil Evans. Offensively three
are capable. Defensively Lagares is in a
class by himself. Nimmo likely returns
to the bench when Michael Conforto returns from the DL making a pretty strong
bench that much more solid. Edge Mets.
11 comments:
Morning Reese -
The bottom line here is, if the Mets want to win this division they have to win the series between these two teams.
It is going to be tough, but if we stay healthy (100th time I have written that this year), they could prevail. The 1969 Mets looked overmatched compared to the Cubs, too. That turned out all right.
That said, good analysis - I am still hoping for a totally huge hitting year from Cespedes (go easy on those legs in cold weather, big boy).
Good unbiased observations Reese . That being said both teams have first time managers which most likely are a wash but we do know the Nats are prone to late season swoons (see ‘15) it’s possible that the Mets can capitalize - especially if they augment their roster during the trade deadline so yes theNats most likely will take the division but it won’t be a cakewalk
The late season swoons may be a thing of the past for the Nats just as benching rookies and burning out the bullpen may be a thing of the past for the Mets.
I thought you were going to make it through without the dead horse, but I guess you haven't reached that point yet.
In any case, the Mets will win the division. Losing Murphy for April, with 6 games vs us, will cost them.
Only health can derail us, and so far it looks good. 🤞
Oh? Did you know someone who did that? :)
Did what?
Sort of like Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC East.......they are the kings until someone dethrones them. I think we are capable of doing it, but if I were a betting man I would pick the Nats at this stage.
@Metsiac -- benched rookies and burned out the bullpen?
Joe Girardi?
Reese, as soon as I read your line about the rookies and the bullpen, I knew Bill wasn’t far behind and he wasn’t going to let it go. LOL, I think he’s kind of like stalking you, waiting for you to refer to the New York manager who had more relievers on the DL than some teams had relievers.
Also, Vargas is the #5 guy, and he’s better than Cole, quite a bit. Too, the Nats have no, none, zippo starting pitching depth. That may hurt as the Mets seem to have plenty.
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