Mike Friere - Unrealized Potential - The Zack Wheeler Story

As many of you know, or at least you should know, I try to put a positive spin on most things in life and that usually translates to my articles and comments on this blog.  There’s enough bad news and negativity in the media these days that adding fuel to the proverbial “fire” would be an unnecessary waste of time.  However, I am also not the type to proceed through the world with “rose colored glasses”, either.  I just try to take an honest look at most issues, from all perspectives, before forming an opinion.

With that said, this article is not necessarily going to be viewed as a “positive” piece, but it does ask a fair question concerning one of our pitchers (Zack Wheeler).  Keep in mind, this is not a “snap judgement” either, as Zack has accumulated enough time at the major league level to form a solid opinion on who he is and what may lie in his future.  I also feel that one of my favorite quotes is right on the money when it comes to ZW…….”the best predictor of future behavior is likely what lies in one’s past”.

So, let’s talk about ZW for a bit.

ZW was born on May 30, 1990 in Smyrna, Georgia where he grew up prior to being the 6th overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft by the San Francisco Giants.  He proceeded to pitch in 116 innings over the first two years in the Giants system (A and A+ levels), showing enough promise to be ranked inside of most evaluator’s top 100 prospects’ lists (actually well inside the top half of those lists).   

He produced the following statistics in the lower levels of the minor leagues;

23 Appearances (all starts)

116 IP

3.49 ERA

1.31 WHIP

10.0 K/9

4.1 BB/9

***Pretty good overall statistics, especially for a player in his age 18/19 and 19/20 seasons, but take a look at his WHIP and his BB/9 rates and you can see what will become a familiar pattern in the ensuing years.

Moving forward slightly, ZW was subsequently traded to our very own Mets in July 2011 for Carlos Beltran and cash.  At the time, most folks felt like this was a very good deal for both sides, but with a slight lean towards the Mets if you took a long view with regards to ZW’s potential.

Once he joined the Mets’ minor league system, he completed the 2011 season with St Lucie (A+) before starting the 2012 season with Binghamton (AA) and ending that season in Buffalo (AAA).  The following season (2013), ZW started the year in Las Vegas and made 13 starts before being promoted to the parent club.  During that time, ZW did not do anything to diminish Mets’ fans hope that he would develop into the “ace” the team so sorely needed.  

He produced the following combined minor league statistics for the Mets during that time period;

38 Appearances (all starts)

218 IP

3.47 ERA

1.23 WHIP

8.9 K/9

3.8 BB/9

***Still solid statistics overall considering his age and the pace at which he progressed through the listed levels of the minor league system.  However, much like above, there is still an alarming BB/9 rate and a corresponding WHIP.

Again, moving along in our analysis, ZW has pretty much been a mainstay on the Mets’ roster since the 2013 season (with the exception of the well publicized absences due to injury that wiped out a huge swath of time).   

Here are his MLB statistics with the Mets since 2013;

66 Appearances (all starts)

371 IP

3.90 ERA

1.40 WHIP

8.5 K/9

4.0 BB/9

***His statistics comprise roughly two seasons worth of starts, if you use thirty starts as a bench mark for one season.  Keep in mind that is for five seasons of possible starts (2013 through 2017), which illustrates how “unavailable” he has been to the Mets’ pitching staff.  Furthermore, his “control issues” have only gotten worse when compared to his minor league statistics (and those were questionable).

Bringing us up to today, ZW will pitch the 2018 season as a 27/28 year old.   At that age, he is no longer considered “young” or a “prospect” in my personal opinion.  He should still have many productive years left, but you have to wonder how much more he has left in his arm, considering all of the time he has missed already and those things don’t normally improve as a person ages.  He is also reaching the point where he is a candidate for a “second generation” contract, as his last year of arbitration will be next year, followed by free agency in 2020.  How risky would a long term contract be for him, knowing what we know up to this point?

Further clouding the picture was his first outing today (02/28/18) against the Braves where he needed 26 pitches to complete one inning!   That would result in a four or five inning start, if we use 100 pitches as a threshold.  Come to think of it, that is a pretty common theme for one of his starts, as it seems that he is always laboring though innings like the one he produced today.  I have shouted "just throw a strike" more then one time while watching him pitch.

So, when you add up his injury history (not necessarily his fault), an overall lack of control (BB/9 and WHIP), a LOT of pitches thrown per inning (extra stress on his arm) and the fact that he is about to get pretty expensive and you arrive at a crossroads, if you will.  Ask yourself what is most likely to happen with ZW going forward? It is no wonder that Sandy was still looking for starting pitching depth late in the off season (especially with the injury histories of several Met starters, to include ZW).

This article isn’t designed to “trash” ZW, as much as it is an illustration that he has not lived up to the hype and the hopes that were attached to the trade back in 2011.  He has talent in spades (solid K/9 rate and a decent ERA, despite the control issues), but it simply has not translated into performance.  It is fair to wonder if the proverbial "lightbulb" will ever go off for him.

In closing, I think ZW’s future is in the bullpen where the stress on his arm would be lessened.  Granted, his control issues would not magically go away, but perhaps they would be mitigated by the shorter appearances that he would make.  He could dial up his fastball without as much of a concern about lasting multiple innings and trying to fool the same hitters two or three times through a lineup.   I wouldn’t necessarily put him at the back of the bullpen, but he could be effective as a middle inning pitcher, or as a bridge to the later inning arms on the roster.

Either way, I would hold onto him through his last arbitration year (2019) and subsequently let him test free agency in 2020.