Tom Brennan - NOW, ABOUT THAT SPRING RECORD...
The Mets' spring record...well, it frankly stinks.
As I wrote this a few days prior to publication, the Mets were 6-15-3. Sounds like a bad hockey season's start for the perennially underwhelming New York Islanders squads.
Sometimes, there is real correlation between a team's pre-season performance and what transpires in the regular season thereafter. 4 straight Islanders' Stanley Cups followed by 30 years in the Mojave Desert. Impossible - and true.
Sometimes spring records are a harbinger of things to come.
The Mets' spring record to the date of this writing (6-15-3) to me is, however, highly misleading, even if other pundits are more doubtful. Why am I positive?
1) The pitching starters we'll count on are increasing their innings load now, and once increased, will be 3 things: TOUGH, TOUGH, AND TOUGH. I think deGrom and Thor will be huge aces, and I think Harvey and Matz will come around decently, and Vargas (when healed) and Wheeler will capably pick up the back end of the rotation.
2) The relief corps should be solid with mighty Jeurys Familia back, along with Ramos, Blevins and Swarzak - I also think Sewald will step forward this year...and they also do have Lugo and Gsellman (and others) who should help.
3) Despite smaller nagging things this spring, I think Cespedes will be fine and start (and star in) 150 games.
I also think that, like Jack Bruce of Cream, Jay Bruce will cream baseballs and have a season comparable to 2017. I think Todd Frazier will give us Joe Frazier pop, on base %, and defense.
I think Asdrubel Cabrera will be solid, and that the Mets will figure out 1B, even if it means Wilmer the Hitman Flores gets more time there. And I think Rosario will dramatically improve this season and give us some strong SS play. And I think MC Hammer Conforto will return soon, and strong.
I also think that, like Jack Bruce of Cream, Jay Bruce will cream baseballs and have a season comparable to 2017. I think Todd Frazier will give us Joe Frazier pop, on base %, and defense.
I think Asdrubel Cabrera will be solid, and that the Mets will figure out 1B, even if it means Wilmer the Hitman Flores gets more time there. And I think Rosario will dramatically improve this season and give us some strong SS play. And I think MC Hammer Conforto will return soon, and strong.
4) Catchers will hit - just ask d'Arnaud and Plawecki - they'll tell you themselves. This is their year to shine. BAM!
5) Bench players led by Big, Bad Brandon Nimmo will do well enough. Better than many past Mets' benches, IMO.
Despite a strong spring record so far, a 77 win Marlins team in 2017 that thereafter lost their 3 lethal bats ought to represent a weak and easily beatable opponent, too. Braves and Phillies? Should beat them up - the Mets remain better.
All told, I think the Mets win 88-92 games, if health holds up.
And no, I do not think the return of David Wright is needed to get to that lofty level - but you knew I thought that about Wright back in 2016 already, didn't you?
So, when the hockey season for 2018-19 starts in October, hopefully I will be right about all of the above and the Mets will be playing serious October baseball. After 88-92 (or more) wins.
Because we need another one of these:
14 comments:
Tom, I agreed with everything you wrote, until you said that the Mets will beat up the Phils and Braves. Those teams are difficult teams that have improved. It won’t be so easy.
How about the "Who are they? " Marlins?
Texas Gus, can't argue that much on the Braves, who will have a full season of Triple F - Freddie Frickin' Freeman, the Ambassador of Pain in Queens.
The Phils were awful in 2017, so they better improve some in 2018...wait, am I feeling bad for Phils' fans there? Let me erase that.
Reese, the no name Marlins are sure winning a lot - that has to change for the worse. I remember a year or two ago the Mets hit in the .290s in spring training and started the real season in Mendoza territory.
Some former Mets in the news today...
Erik Goeddel cut loose by the pitching-starved Rangers (yet who was a go-to guy for Callaway's predecessor) is about to become a Marinter, though hardly an ancient one at 29.
For people who think only the Mets are snakebitten when it comes to injuries, the man Sandy Alderson inexplicably cut loose who signed up with the Dodgers, Justin Turner, had his wrist broken on a pitch in Arizona yesterday.
Tom, believe me, I’d love to crap on them too, LOL. But, they added Arrieta and Santana and their kids are a year older, including a full year of Hoskings. Also,I think Gabe Kapler was a huge mistake.
@TexasGusCC -- why are you down on Kapler? His ideas about sports nutrition seem to be quite sound and he was always better known for his physique than his ability. The Dodgers thought enough of him to have him in a front office capacity.
BTW, where in Texas are you? I'm in El Paso.
TexasGus, good points on Arrieta and Santana. They will also have a Black Magic Woman in the dugout :)
The Sparkling City by the Bay...
Corpus Christi
We used to have the Corpus Christi Army Depot as a client. I've been there a few times. Water...what a concept! I'm a desert rat.
Still having trouble shaking the Terry obsession, Mr Monk?
Is Rosa's Cantina still open? 😁
Indeed it is on a street called Doniphan across from the power plant.
Tom Brennan, do you still think Brandon Nimmo is a bench player?
Nimmo is the Mets centerfielder. He is only going to get better and better as we have already witnessed this Spring. Lagares is simply not improving at the plate. The four outfielders will be Yo, Captain Nimmo, JBrew, and MC if and when ready to get back whole here. Injuries to this team happen as water runs downstream (except in very few exceptions I know) so they all will play a lot in 2018. You can count on it. Trust me here, no fork tongue. Or if a key injury were to happen at first base, one could end up there as well. But these are the four men.
Todd Frazier is A-L-I-V-E! OMG!
I thought they had put a warm corpse out there in Todd's number 21 uni! It's nice to see life in the 21. "Get'rdone 21!" (Some vets just don't like ST games I guess. But the fans do!)
Am I worried about Zach?
[Nah!]
I won so many times with him starting a few seasons back. He was virtually automatic out there! Can he be that again? Oh yeah Granny Mae, oh yeah! It's coming, be a tad bit more patient as he sorts through his time away rust. That's all it is really. The smooth mechanics are right there. The guy is butter.
Adrienne!
Rocky says he loves Adrienne. Homerun Adrienne! Not bad. 37 or whatever age he is, it isn't that old. "You are only old when you think that you are old." Know this. Right Mack!
What's my take on leg weightlifting? (Although no one should actually care, I know.)
For football YES overall. You need it in football. (Does anyone even watch the NFL anymore? (I don't and won't...Idolize someone else.) Anyway...Leg lifting for baseball, be very careful here.
I prefer running and jogging to leg lifting with the legs and back straining. Jogging and running is what I have done and have seen work for others as well. Why no leg lifts beyond just using very marginal weight early on in ST to avoid those nasty hammy pulls? Because what is it you are trying to accomplish with your leg lifts really...Huge muscles? A sore back? Muscles so large that you pop them when running full tilt? Think about it once more.
Upperbody weightlifting I like, a lot actually. It can be the difference between making the baseball team or not, sticking in MLB too once you get there. It's actually why some recent Mets went down to AAA I think. They cannot, have not ever hit for power into the outfield gaps. Upperbody weightlifting could have made this difference. All I can say here is that hey must like being in AAA. But maybe it will suddenly dawn on them when they are 65? "Oh man, I should have hit the weightroom and increased my upperbody strength. Maybe I could have been something.
Just getting into the weightroom daily so that you can stay maximal and add power to your offense, it's so vital and obvious a thing. You don't even have to have an IQ. Fish get it.
What's better for developing the leg muscles that you will be using every game? Jogging really. Perhaps rollerblading esp. if you are a catcher because it covers the inside upper leg muscles you will be using a lot in games crouching.
Just my take. Feel free to disagree. Most do I realize.
Anon -
I actually believe that Nimmo has now proven to be an outfield starter; however, he is on a team that has (at least) three more... Cespedes, Bruce, and Conforto.
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