3/6/18

Brandon Nimmo - Short Term or Long Term Answer?



While reviewing a bunch of random Mets related articles yesterday (Monday), I came across a piece that was basically a review of the Mets' Spring Training match up with the Detroit Tigers.  As most of you know, the Mets "won" the ballgame 4-2 in Port St. Lucie and one of the "stars" of the game was our very own Brandon Nimmo.

BN was 1-3 on the day, to include a home run and two runs scored, while hitting in the lead off spot for the home side.  At times, Spring Training lineups can be a bit unpredictable since most managers are experimenting with different looks, in the hopes of nailing down the most effective line up going forward.  Despite this fact, I think BN hitting in the lead off spot yesterday has a bit more significance then
your normal result.

During the aforementioned interview, new Mets' manager Mickey Callaway stated "we're looking for certain qualities in hitters in certain spots......he (Nimmo) definitely fits a mold of what you'd be looking for in that leadoff spot."  MC is new to all of us in Mets' land, so I am not quite sure how to read him, yet.  However, early returns are that he is pretty straight forward and he likely means what he says (at the moment, anyway). 

I put together a previous article on the importance of a good lead off hitter in any lineup AND the lack of a lead off hitter on the Mets' current roster. Along with the lack of left handed pitching options in the bullpen, this is a major area of need for the 2018 season, in my opinion.  Complicating the issue is the method in which Sandy constructed his outfield in the off season.

Clearly, Yoenis Cespedes will be the primary left fielder, so that issue has been put to bed.  Most of us thought that a possible platoon of Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo would patrol center field, leaving right field for Michael Conforto (once he recovered from off season surgery).  However, Sandy pulled Jay Bruce out of the hat and he pretty much has to play right field, with the occasional appearance at first base.  This puts a kink in the listed plan, since MC now has to play primarily in center field. That, in turn, results in JL and BN moving to the bench once everyone is healthy and in their normal positions on the field.

I like JB, but I didn't see a fit at the time and I don't see one now. In addition to possible defensive alignment issues, the lineup does not have a true lead off hitter.
In the short term (the first month of the season), that issue will be mitigated by MC's absence as he rehabilitates.  Combine that with yet another injury for JL and you have a "golden opportunity" for BN to showcase his skills.

BN, who will celebrate a birthday in a few weeks, will play the 2018 season as a 25 year old. He is the closest thing to a lead off hitter that MC has to pick from and he is as ready to play as he will ever be, based on his age (no longer a prospect) and not having much left to prove at AAA. 

Here are Brandon's statistics over his two "part time" years in MLB;

295 Appearances (roughly one half of a season)

.264/.367/.392 (.759 OPS)

6 HR/27 RBI/2 SB and 38 R

1.0 WAR (mostly earned in 2017)

Slightly negative dWAR (only 12 starts in CF)

The listed statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, since BN has not had the luxury of being a "regular" at the MLB level, to include a normal position on the field and in the lineup.  He also lacks two vital traits that a good lead off hitter should possess, namely game changing speed and above average defensive prowess.  But, he does have an above average "batting eye" which leads to a lot of walks and a decent on base percentage.  Plus, he is not arbitration eligible until 2020 and free agency does not kick in until 2023.

So, this issue raises a couple of questions, such as;

Do you give BN a chance to be the regular center fielder and lead off hitter until MC is ready to return?

What do the Mets do with BN if he is playing well at that point?

What happens to JL if there is no where for him to play when he is "healthy"?

What say you, armchair GM's?



8 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

Question 1 -- a resounding yes!
Question 2 -- isn't that a nice problem to have? Work him in 3 games a week giving the others time off.
Question 3 -- Defensive replacement until you can find a taker for him on the open market

Tom Brennan said...

I like the Jay Bruce signing - not killer bucks and a proven power commodity. If Conforto returns quickly, no reason why Cespedes, Bruce and Conforto can't hit 100 homers between them. What is not to like there?

The Nimmo/Lagares split of remaining time will become a bigger issue once Conforto returns and Cespedes, Bruce and Conforto suck up the bulk of the time - both Nimmo and Lagares could do well. Maybe Bruce DOES end up at 1B for a while - Adrian G may soon be jobless if he does not pick things up - we don't need another James Loney at 1B. And they may want Smith in Vegas for half a season, so maybe Bruce does partially slide to 1B and splits time there with Wilmer.

Time will tell, but if the 5 man outfield plays as well as it is capable, can you think of a better outfield in Mets history 1 through 5? Not sure I can...and that makes it a good problem to have.

I guess Dekker could fill in in a pinch, but Borenstein has not impressed me, nor has Kaczmarski, so after the top 5 right now, the drop off is sharp. Let's hope all 5 remain healthy and make Callaway's decisions tough ones.

Mike Freire said...

I like the power production potential.....I just see a void at the top of the order?!?

Eddie from Corona said...

well this goes back to the MC comments he made earlier... Now we will see if they are true or just the company line...
the one i am referring to is giving a young guy a chance to succeed and letting the best player play regardless of options or salary...

So if Nimmo is performing here is his shot... I mean its not a long term commitment since its conforto job...

Give Nimmo the CF job 75-80 percent of the time and let him lead off (so he maximizes his at bats) and lets see what he can do...

Sometimes like conforto had to a player forces your hand

Michael S. said...

Long term answer. Always saw him as a #1/#2 hitter. Starting the lineup with Nimmo-Rosario could be strong for this team for a while.

Unorthodox idea - If Cecchini’s bat is really maturing, see if he can handle 3B. Could be a medium-to-long term answer there. That’s 3 inexpensive everyday players to hold down spots. Maybe not spectacular, but good, solid baseball players that provide support.

Mack Ade said...

Hey Michael S. -

Did you notice that Mike Friere is back writing for MMs?

(hint, hint...)

TexasGusCC said...

Nimmo was 1-3, but was robbed twice in a row by two different CFers. First, a diving headlong sprawl in left center, then a headlong dive in shallow center by a replacement.

Michael S. said...

Hi Mack! If something grabs my attention I’ll write something up and send it to you.