Reese Kaplan -- Could There Be Roster Surprises?

Perhaps the sign of a good team is when there are few position battles up for grabs.  In years past the Mets weren’t clear who many of their starters would be, let alone their role players.  This year a lot of it was predetermined before spring training began, though there is still room for surprises to occur.

Infield

Let’s go with the easy ones first.  You have the returning Asdrubal Cabrera at 2^nd base and the hopefully healthy Amed Rosario at SS forming an interesting double play combo with somewhat similar offensive profiles (a tad more power from Cabrera and significantly more speed from Rosario).  Todd Frazier will provide power, defense and a good clubhouse presence at his familiar spot on 3^rd base. 

First base, however, could be something of a surprise.  The Mets have taken a pretty much no-risk gamble in bringing former All-Star Adrian Gonzalez to camp at minimum wage with the Braves picking up his $21.5 million salary.  He is coming off an injury-plagued year that saw his ailing back take a tremendous toll on his offensive output.  Normally a veteran with his resume would not have to audition to get his spot in the starting lineup, but he’s not generated the offense in his short spring sample to suggest his back injury is completely behind him (or that age hasn't simply caught up to him).  No one likes a bargain more than Sandy Alderson and his bosses, but if Gonzalez doesn’t start kicking it into gear, then he may get the Bobby Abreu treatment.

Who then takes over at 1^st base?  Personally, I think if they do part ways with Gonzalez, then the job is initially handed to Wilmer Flores while Dominic Smith works his way back into hot prospect form in AAA.  Getting a home run yesterday had to help his cause.  That situation may change when Michael Conforto returns as it opens up the possibility of Jay Bruce shifting to 1B to give some ABs to suddenly hot Brandon Nimmo.  The main beneficiary of a hypothetical Gonzalez cut might be Gavin Cecchini as they would need another spare infielder if Flores is starting at 1B. 

On catcher, Travis d’Arnaud had better start looking over his shoulder.  He may have more power than Kevin Plawecki, but defense and a higher batting average potential may mean Plawecki gets more starts than d’Arnaud.

Outfield

While everyone knows that four people are set in stone – Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo and Juan Lagares – who is the 5^th outfielder?  Now it’s understandable in a Terry Collins camp that you would sit Jose Reyes or have him play the infield positions while declaring him a spare outfielder.  I was thinking Mickey Callaway would be a bit smarter than that, but thus far I haven’t seen the fleet footed role player taking any fly balls in the outfield. 

It’s entirely possible they will muddle through the first several weeks of the season short-handed in the outfield while awaiting Michael Conforto’s return.  That move would enable them to carry an 8^th pitcher in the bullpen, one of whom would be dropped when the All Star outfielder is set to return. 

Pitching

Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey are locks.  Jacob deGrom is certainly going to be there once he has been medically cleared from his back stiffness.  After that it’s actually fairly murky.  Steven Matz has been flat out awful until yesterday when he turned in the kind of performance they'd been hoping to see.  Until recently Zack Wheeler has not dominated either.  Wheeler will likely get a shot to start and see how it goes.  Seth Lugo has pitched to sub 2.16 ERA thus far while Robert Gsellman may have put himself back in the mix with 3 strong innings vs. the Yankees on Wednesday.  Rafael Montero had been cruising along until he imploded on that same day.  Given the fact Gsellman and Lugo both have options I would expect one of them (likely Gsellman) to be in AAA.  I’m actually thinking that given Matz’ health issues in the past, he might benefit from steady work out of the spotlight in the warmer weather in Las Vegas. If that happens, then one of Lugo or Montero will temporary get the nod for the rotation.  The other likely goes to the pen as a swingman.  Montero will be on the thinnest of ice, only earning the call north due to being out of options.

In the bullpen I have Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Anthony Swarzak, Jerry Blevins, Paul Sewald, Rafael Montero/Seth Lugo and Jacob Rhame.  Conlon has adapted well to his new role as a reliever and conventional wisdom would state that they do need a second lefty.  Jamie Callahan could push Jacob Rhame, but I think Hansel Robles has rapidly dug his own grave (even before he gave up 4 runs yesterday).  Corey Taylor had been quite good until giving up the grand slam that Montero set up for him, but there’s likely only one more spot on the 40-man roster once they put David Wright on the 60-day DL and they need the southpaw more than another righty.  Would it be Matt Purke who doesn't have Conlon's pedigree but who has pitched at the ML level before?  Could a last minute effort from lefties Kyle Regnault or David Roseboom happen?  Not likely, but there's no clear lefty answer for the pen.  Some would say stick Matz out there, but I'm thinking someone coming off multiple health issues needs steady rather than erratic work.  That's the same reason I think Wheeler doesn't belong in the pen either.  Now Jason Vargas..nah, that would represent too much out of the box thinking for this team.  .  

So my roster would include:

Flores

Cabrera

Rosario

Frazier

Plawecki

Cespedes

Nimmo

Bruce

Lagares

Reyes

Cecchini

d’Arnaud

deGrom

Syndergaard

Harvey

Wheeler

Montero

Familia

Ramos

Swarzak

Blevins

Sewald

Lugo

Rhame

Conlon (but more likely Purke)

What do you think?