Tom Brennan asks -
The Mets' season record
for home runs after 56 seasons is shared by Beltran and Hundley, a relatively
paltry 41.
Question: Do you think
that the outfield trio of Cespedes, Bruce, and Conforto could AVERAGE 41 homers
this year?
Or, if not, will the entire outfield hit at
least that many (123 homers) this season?
Jack Flynn says –
If the Mets' outfield combines to hit 90 home runs next
season, we should all be celebrating.
Yoenis Cespedes has only reached the 35-homer mark once in his career, and
has only played 150 games or more twice. He's a good bet for 25 to 30 homers in
the 130 games he's likely to play, but asking for 40 is just too much.
Jay Bruce reached his career high with 36 home runs last season, and
despite the fact that he is more durable than Cespedes, he is nevertheless
unlikely to make it past that mark this year. He has reached the 30-homer mark
five times in his career, and Bruce has certainly bought in on adjusting his
launch angle to hit more fly balls. A healthy season means he could challenge
the 35-homer mark again.
That leaves Michael Conforto and
the adjustments he will make after shoulder surgery. No one knows how his power
numbers will bounce back, since his injury was a relatively unusual one for a
position player. Frankly, it strikes me that he more likely to turn into Josh Reddick than he is to ever hit 40 home runs.
Mike Friere says –
I think statistical benchmarks always come with an
asterisk......not the Barry Bonds asterisk, but
one that signals the reader that the issue isn't as black and white as a
numerical comparison. There have been a
variety of "eras" within MLB's history, some have favored the long
ball and others have been referred to as "dead ball" eras. With that said, the number of home runs a
team (or a player) generates, or a particular record is relevant to the era in
question.
Furthermore, the relatively low total you referenced in your
question probably has a lot to do with the Mets consistently playing in ball
parks that ranged from neutral to suppressive towards home runs. However, it
seems that MLB is currently in a "home run" heavy era, so I would not
be surprised if one or more of the players you listed emerge as real threats to
the Mets' single season home run record of 41 (despite CitiField's dimensions).
I think Yoenis Cespedes has
the best chance (say 50-50), so long as he stays healthy and gets enough at
bats.
As far as the trio is concerned, I am more pessimistic that
ALL of them will threatened 41 home runs (in order to get to 123 collective
bombs), but would love to be proven wrong.
Mack says –
Tom, I have always appreciated your optimism when it comes to
the Mets… not to be confused with your thoughts on the Long Island Railroad.
I do expect all three to hit a lot of homes this season, but
123 combined is, in my opinion, a stretch.
Over 100? Yes.
Reese Kaplan says –
Bruce has topped the charts at
36. Cepedes' high water mark is 35. Conforto's best is 27 in an injury shortened
year. Assuming health, the answer would
be no. Assuming Mets' health, the answer
is a resounding no. I hope I'm wrong,
but even if Conforto (starting late) could hit 40, that would still leave them
well shy of the total you're seeking to eclipse.
David Rubin says -
Tom: I was wondering myself if a healthy outfield of
Cespedes, Conforto and Bruce (w/Nimmo) would set the team's all-time record for
homers this year, and I think if ever it was going to happen, it would be 2018.
I can see either Bruce or Yo! breaking the record, especially if Cespedes stays
healthy and motivated as he has been all spring long. With the homer trend not
going away any time soon and with Frazier in the line-up as well as a
hot-hitting catching tandem (which hopefully looks like this all season long) I
could also see the team threatening their all-time homer mark in a season. Now
if our rotation and bullpen can KEEP from letting too many get launched against
us, this could truly be a very exciting season!!
1 comment:
How fascinating that on the day this article's question came up, all 3 had hit a homer just yesterday.
I really do see Conforto as a home run hitter in ascension. After the shoulder operation I had doubts, but he hit 2 homers in a minor league game, then hit for the cycle, then hit another homer in the spring, and now this one. Despite missing several weeks last year, I heard he has the second most opposite field homers since the start of 2017.
Bruce is a very solid power hitter who was on track for 43 or 44 before the Mets traded him. Can he replicate that pace in a dangerous line up this year? Ya never know.
Every homer Cespedes hits shows freaky power, and I think he has enough skill in that bat to get a lot of flies and liners in the air. For a normal power hitter, like Bruce and Conforto, that would net him 30 homers - but he has freakish, lightning power. He does not seem to sneak homers over fences - other guys hit a ball that just sneaks over, but Cespedes hits the same ball the same way and it travels much further.
I'm sticking with 50. This is the year for him to do to the Mets' low homer record what Lance Johnson did to the Mets low team season's hits record of 191 in the 1990's - demolish it with 227 hits. For him, his prior career high was 186. I think Cespedes has a similar leap year in him.
Reyes had 204 hits one year with the Mets afterwards in 2008, as close as they'd ever get - and if I am right, only the 2nd and last time a Met has had over 200 hits in a season.
I want that record of 41 not just to fall - I want to see it obliterated.
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