Every now and then you are subjected to one of those mystery
player scenarios in which you’re supposed to put aside your preconceptions and
biases, simply evaluating players on the basis of what they have done on the
field. To any astute fan, these exercises
are usually futile as one of the two is almost certainly recognizable within
the first paragraph or so. The second
might take two paragraphs to identify the individual in question.
Rather than subject you to this type of mild challenge, I’ll
simply come right out and say that Player A is Juan Lagares and Player B is
Keon Broxton. Obviously, you have a lot
more familiarity and experience with Player A than you do Player B. On the surface, acquiring Broxton seemed a
little puzzling in that he was in some ways a carbon copy of Lagares as a
defense-first center fielder. He’s not
had Lagares’ health issues, but then he’s also not had Lagares’ opportunities
to play, either.
Over the course of parts of seven years Juan Lagares has
certainly provided his share of highlight reel catches and throws. It’s the other side of his game that
sometimes frustrates fans. He’s not a
particularly powerful hitter and has shown some occasional bursts of speed, but
never put together enough of a running game to be considered a true threat in
the mold of a Jose Reyes. For his career
he’s a .260 hitter (which is right around replacement level) with 20 HRs and
153 RBIs to go along with 40 SBs. If
this aggregate total was over the course of two seasons with 10 HRs, 76 RBIs
and 20 SBs, there would not have been the need to seek out depth in the CF position. Unfortunately, it happened over the course of
1700+ ABs, about 3 seasons’ worth of production. He is projected to provide 6 HRs, 42 RBIs and
a .260 AVG with 11 SBs. He’s clearly valued far more for what he does
on defense than on offense.
Keon Broxton’s problem has been the strikeout. He has whiffed at a prodigious rate since
entering the league. He’s fanned at a
42% rate for his career, double what Lagares has done. Granted, he’s only been up a hair over 700
times vs. over 1700 for Lagares.
However, he’s made the most of those ABs, providing 33 HRs, 79 RBIs and
52 SBs to go along with a poor .223 AVG.
Projected over the same 1700 ABs, he would have given you 80 HRs, 191
RBIs and 126 SBs. Considering that he’s
doing that with the strikeout problem and the low batting average, he’s still
quite a bit more valuable on the offensive side of the ledger than is Lagares.
Now small samples are dangerous things, but his 88 walks in
703 ABs does not suggest a particularly keen eye. He seemed to be swinging from his heels to
produce the HR and RBI totals. Take a
look, therefore, at what happened under the tutelage of Chili Davis in spring
training. He was up 39 times and went
down on strikes in 14 of them. That
percentage is actually better than in the past – 36% vs. 42%. What is interesting, however, is the number
of walks – 9. Of players on the current
roster, he ranked 4th in OBP with a nice .429 mark.
During his first start on Sunday he surely didn’t do himself
any disservice in that regard with a walk, two hits and a stolen base. It’s certainly too soon to tell if the gospel
of Chili Davis is accounting for the transforming hitter, but the .282 ending
mark in spring training was WAY better than he’d done in his career thus
far.
By contrast, Juan Lagares struggled in Port St. Lucie,
finishing the spring with a .196 AVG and a .211 OBP, by far the worst numbers
of anyone who came north with the team.
He’s started off this season hitting .167.
Just as BVW acquired J.D. Davis as a less expensive and
potential better option off the bench to play multiple positions for the
increasingly expensive Wilmer Flores, perhaps he had his eye on the future with
Juan Lagares set to hit free agency at the end of this season. Broxton makes the major league minimum and
Lagares earns $9 million. It’s way too
soon to say who is better and who is worse in the long term, but it surely
looks as if this deal is starting off in the win column for the GM.
8 comments:
If Broxton can be fixed, strikeout-wise, he could be very good. Big if, clearly.
Chili Davis might just have success fixing him. He is faster than Juan, and his career OBP is higher, even in the majors. But he will have to make the most of his opportunities.
He is right now clearly a 5th outfielder, and when Jed and Todd return, Jeff McNeil, Nimmo and Conforto will leave little time for Juan and Keon to get ABs.
I think MC and the Mets made a major mistake not letting Dom Smith take more OF reps this spring in order to increase his exposure to the position and his versatility to help the team (or as trade bait).
That Lagares started a day after taking a pitch to the hand was hopefully an effort to showcase him, otherwise it's yet another headscratching move when Broxton was available.
I agree, Reese......I think BVW was actually planning ahead with the Davis and Broxton acquisitions, which is different then the past regime (it seems).
I like Broxton as an affordable reserve who offers power and speed off the bench, along with late inning defensive prowess.
Few things:
Those minor deals for Davis and Broxton were exactly the kind of deals that Sandy Alderson never made in 8 soporific years as GM for Mets. Because: naps!
Broxton has more speed and pop than Lagares. I don't know if he'll be good or not, but like the potential. I'd think a number of teams would be intrigued by Davis, who tore up AAA-ball. He might not have a position on this team. Like his versatility.
On Juan, I don't believe he can hit. Giants just traded for Pillar. Too bad we couldn't dump Juan there. If Yankees get really desperate, maybe they go for Frazier -- who has no use to Mets whatsoever.
I generally hate daily complaints about bullpen management, but damn, Calloway has already made some truly egregious decisions. Time for Brodie to have a sternly worded conversation with him. It's April 3rd and guys are confused and getting burned out and misused. Very, very lucky they didn't blow that game last night.
Jimmy P
Reese -
I agree with you about the lack of OF time allotted to Smith in the spring.
Still, I love him as the first PH bat off the bench and then a late inning replacement on first. He also will start at least one game a week there. He will get 300+ at bats.
As for the outfield, hopefully the soon to be return of Frazier will push McNeil out to join Nimmo and Conforto as starters out there.
Jimmy P, my guess is Mickey would say, I already got Diaz up in pen in the 9th Monday nite. Then Petehit his bomb...nevertheless, Diaz should not have gone out there, unless someone else got in trouble. We need to preserve him.
I get the Broxton comments but JD Davis? why do we think he is any good? Looks to be a pretty sub par major league hitter. was terrible last year and so far this year the same. Teams with him batting 5th don't win much unless they play the Marlins. Not sure why he would ever play third with a right handed pitcher on the mound over Jeff Mcneil.
Jon, with Frazier soon to return, and Lowrie hopefully no more than a few weeks behind, Davis will soon be in AAA if this is all he can do. He is not to date successfully grasping his unique opportunity - both Frazier and Lowrie being out simultaneously. Frazier looks like he'd be a major upgrade upon return.
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