Tom Brennan - IS THAT CESPEDES RUST, OR IS IT CORROSION?

Well, I wrote this article before last night's debacle.  A lot can change in one night.  

Yoenis Cespedes, the subject of the article below, did have a 2 run double on a 1 for 5 nights, with a K, but he was not last night's story - the horrendous pitching was, and it does not at all bode well for this campaign, and the fact that discarded Travis d'Arnaud is hitting .571 for the Braves and destroyed the Mets last night is another topic not otherwise broached today....those are subjects for another day. 

Now, back to today's article:

We know that Yoenis Cespedes has so much power that if he were taking BP in Key Largo, he could probably reach his former homeland Cuba with one of his drives.

But power only counts if La Potencia hits the ball.  

Just ask the O's Chris Davis.  

Through Thursday, Davis had remarkably fanned just once in 12 plate appearances, very unusual for the "Prodigious K" Davis - but he was also just 1 for 11.  He is totally shot until proven otherwise.

In games through Thursday, Cespedes had sent 2 balls into orbit in his 24 plate appearances, but only was 4 for 22 with 12 Ks.

Cespedes in his younger Mets days was distinctly NOT strikeout-prone.  Prior to this year, in was up 1,273 times and fanned just 273 times, or "just" a K every 4.66 times up.  For a power hitter, that is a fine ratio in today's game.  By comparison, through Thursday, everybody's favorite Polar Bear, Pete Alonso, had fanned once every 3.78 times in his career.  Worse - no explanation needed.  Cespedes had been much less K prone than Pete.  (of course, compared to his crosstown bopper of similar power, Aaron Judge, Juge has put up a far worse 3.16:1 career ratio.

One more Met: 

Michael Conforto in his career has fanned once every 4.11 PAs.  Better than Pete, far better than Judge, but not nearly as able to make contact as Cespedes when healthy.

This year through Thursday?  

Cespedes has fanned 50% of his plate appearances. 12 of 24.

Of concern?  

In 2017, he fanned just once every 5.26 times up - excellent - but in his hurting 2018, that rate heavily slipped to once every 3.14 times up.  He may be feeling better now - but he is 2 years older, too.  Maybe he struggles to get his PA/K ratio above 3:1.  If so, the Mets are in trouble.

Just rust?

Or is his 2020 K-strewn start a dashboard warning light alerting us to a guy whose career is corroding?

I don't know - but we will soon find out.

I'm hoping it is just rust.  And that most of the rust is gone.  Or, welcome LF Dominic Smith.  

And to Cespedes, welcome to the bench.