Reese Kaplan -- Who Should Be in the Mets Rotation?

The revelations about James McCann and Jared Porter are old news by now.  The Mets have in reverse order secured their new catcher and the person who would make these negotiations for types of player deals with a new GM in the fold.  There is definite progress being made but now folks are questioning the sequence and the priorities of what will happen next.  

To hear the majority of fans and media types talk about it, all focus should be on the big duo of free agents -- Trevor Bauer and George Springer.  No one will deny that both of these folks can help the Mets in their quest for respectability no matter what price they command.  Springer is a genuine centerfielder at this stage of his career and should be able to hold that role for at least 2-3 years before moving to a corner.  

Bauer is a bit more of a question mark as his major league resume is fraught with mediocrity yet he feels he is in Clayton Kershaw payroll territory.  For folks who only consider what’s recent history, there’s no arguing the magical partial season Bauer put together in 2020 over the course of 60 games.  Over 11 starts with a bad team he went 5-4, but that’s not the metric that should catch your attention (or weaken it).  He performed at a 1.73 ERA with a mind boggling ability to keep runners off base.  He gave up just 41 hits in 71 innings of work and, for the first time in his career, he showed good control walking just 2.1 per 9 IP.  He also racked up very impressive strikeout totals with a 12.3 total per 9 IP as well.  

However, as you peruse his pitching scorecard, this season is very much an outlier.  Yes, he had one good season for the Indians in 2018, but overall it’s a poor resume upon which to expect to be paid north of $30 million per season.  His overall career ERA is 3.90.  For a frame of reference, Zack Wheeler wowed everyone when he landed a $118 million five-year deal for an average rate of under $24 million per season.  To warrant that kind of payday he provided a 3.70 ERA for his career yet the Philadelphia Inquirer called it “a good pitcher on a bad contract.”

No one can criticize Bauer’s desire to cash in on his stellar and short 2020 performance but teams who are considering his services they need to consider the whole picture and not just what he did in an 11-game hot streak in 2020.  He’s always had control issues and his personality which some find colorful, others find downright unacceptable.  By his own admission he’s talented in just two ways -- “throwing baseballs and pissing people off.”  

Granted, during the Wilpon years the Mets were not happy about embracing anyone controversial in the least.  Folks who garnered bad headlines soon found themselves given away for very little in return so as to keep the “purity” of the franchise.  No one knows what Steve Cohen has in mind about his personnel acting unlike Boy Scouts, but that is indeed what Bauer brings to the table.

He’s a bright man and unafraid of trying things out of the ordinary.  While with Cleveland Sports Illustrated ran a somewhat bizarre workout that included Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation, allowing electrical currents to allow his brain better to facilitate its ability to master new facts as he attempts to become a better pitcher.  He claims that this routine is what allowed his slider to become the pitch he hoped it could be and led to his Cy Young contending 2018 season.  

Whether or not you agree with his approach, that attempt was a one-year level of success.  His 2019 full season pitching between Cleveland and Cincinnati was an exercise in mediocrity.  His overall 4.48 ERA included the 10 games at 6.39.  Now folks who are quick to say, “Wait, it was only 10 games” are just as quick to say, “Look at his brilliant 11 games in 2020!”  

I won’t get into the political side of Bauer’s Twitter rants, but suffice to say he is not afraid to be passionate about what he believes.  So if he continues his pattern of a take-no-prisoners approach to articulating his opinions in an unwelcome environment, the possibility exists that fans and team personnel may feel the public relations rocky road isn’t worth what he may or may not do on the mound.

The other side of this question is perhaps to look to secure Bauer on a short-term deal both to see how he performs in a hopefully standard 162 game season and how he fits in as a teammate.  In the past it seemed the club was more concerned about the latter aspect than the former.  Perhaps Steven Cohen and company are ready to take a vastly different approach.  

There is no denying that the Mets need more quality starting pitching.  To look at it right now they have an ace in Jacob deGrom, a solid pitcher (with a career ERA better than Bauer) in Marcus Stroman, a 60-game audition from David Peterson who never pitched in AAA and not much more.  Steven Matz is on the roster but his ice is so thin, ice skaters would plunge right through it.  Robert Gsellman has bounced between the pen and the starting rotation with little to command respect.  Seth Lugo belongs in the pen where he’s one of the league’s best, rather than acting as a starting pitcher more reminiscent of what Bauer did in his many bad years.  

Indeed other free agent pitchers exist who the Mets could approach, several of whom actually have superior track records to Bauer.  Take Taijuan Walker, for example.  His career record of 35-34 is nothing to brag about, but his ERA is lower than Bauer’s, he’s always allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and he exhibits far better control.  In 2020 he was earning just $2 million, so a long or short term deal would cost less than a single year of Trevor Bauer.  

While James Paxton lived through a horrific 2020 for the Yankees, remember it was an oddball short season whose results both good and bad need to be taken with a grain of salt.  For his career Paxton is 57-33, 24 games OVER .500 while pitching for some questionable teams.  His career ERA even with the horrible 2020 is just 3.58.  His control numbers are superior to Bauer, his WHIP is better and three of the last four full seasons kept the number of hits below the number of innings pitched.  As a Yankee he was on about a $20 million two-year deal, so the same rate would be Rick Porcello money, but it’s entirely possible after the poor 2020 he might cost even less.  

The other ex Yankee is Masahiro Tanaka who on paper is far better than Bauer has been for his career.  He is 32 games OVER .500 during his Yankee tenure, an ERA of 3.74 and averaging only 1.8 walks per 9 IP.  He’s twice been an All Star and once finished 7th in the Cy Young Award race.  The Yankees probably overpaid a bit for his services at an average of roughly $22 million per year.  A new deal as he is now going to be age 32 during the 2021 season will likely be shorter and at that same rate or less.  In 2020 he was good through his 10 starts.  His record was just .500, but his ERA was 3.56 and his control was even superior to usual.  

The one pitcher the Mets apparently have investigated is former Twin Jake Odorizzi.  As you look at his numbers they are not eye popping.  His career record is a winning one and he offers up a 3.92 ERA.  His strikeout totals are slightly above average but not one per inning and his walks are a bit of an issue.  His best ever season was 2019 for Minnesota when he made the All Star team on a 15-7 record, but that lone standout suggests he’s at best a 5th starter for a good team.  He earned $17 million in his final season with the Twins but shouldn’t approach that number again as he enters 2021 at age 31.  While I’m not thrilled with his inclusion in the rotation, he’s actually right around number one choice Bauer if you view the metrics with a tick down on the strikeouts.  I’m thinking he’s more in the $13 million per year for three years type of deal.  

There are also a slew of Japanese and Korean pitchers having been posted and available as free agents.  This route is not something the Mets have traditionally done, but now things are very much new and it’s possible that the horizons have broadened a bit.  

There are other options out there as well if the Mets actually use the trade route which Sandy Alderson said they were not planning to do.  However, with a new GM in house it’s possible that that avenue will open up as well.  Before I go pitching a 7 year $31 million contract at Trevor Bauer, I would look under every rock and in every nook and cranny for alternatives.  How would you feel paying Bauer more than deGrom and have him pitch like Porcello?