Reese Kaplan -- How to Spend $40 Million To Improve the Roster

Word seems to be filtering out from the Mets camp that they are indeed serious about staying underneath the $210 million ballclub salary cap to avoid paying the luxury tax.  Many folks have not yet grasped exactly what it means for personnel moves for the team given the constraints such a move places on payroll flexibility. 

The dreams of Trevor Bauer, George Springer and others may not fit into the plans many have envisioned for the Mets, yet the center field, third base, starting rotation, bullpen, a backup infielder to complement Luis Guillorme, a backup catcher and a backup outfielder issues are still on the table.  Assuming you only grab one more starting pitcher, one more reliever, one backup catcher, one backup infielder and perhaps just one backup outfielder, that’s a total of at least five new bodies to add to the roster.  

Five new bodies at minimum wage would be about $3 million, so filling the holes is most definitely doable, but will the bottom of the salary scale provide the talent needed to provide quality innings and quality at-bats.  I would think not.  

Consequently, the club needs to look at the middle of the pack and see where some well paid but not over-the-top candidates in terms of salary will buttress what is being built while perhaps filling in at the bottom with lesser players who are not planned for long term use but as occasional starters, pinch hitting, lost-game pitching and such until they prove they are worthy of doing more. 

The other similar path to explore is finding folks like they did yesterday with Jose Martinez who is coming off one bad partial year split between two clubs with three solid seasons in a row behind that to suggest the talent is really there, but at a $1 million salary he’s worth exploring.

We’ve all heard the names of the conspicuous centerfield candidates, including Springer, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin Pillar, Albert Almora, Jake Marisnick, Juan Lagares and others.  The problem is they are arguably the cream of the crop.  The other free agents available are not too enticing.  Bubba Starling, Brian Goodwin, Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton and Delino DeShields make up the bottom of the barrel.  In this regard, the Mets might be better off looking to the trade route or other clubs’ AAA prospects.

For the backup catcher, it’s not a whole lot better.  Tomas Nido is currently second on the depth chart, but he’s never shown much of anything with the bat, though he’s supposed to be decent as a ball handler and at throwing out runners.  The free agents after J.T. Realmuto are pretty checkered.  Tyler Flowers, Jason Castro, Alex Avila and Austin Romine are all career hitters in the .230s. 

The best hitter of the bunch is by far Kurt Suzuki who in just 280 ABs for the Nationals in 2019 hit 17 HRs and drove in 63 while hitting .264.  The problem with him is his age -- 37 last season -- and the fact he enjoyed a $6 million payday as a part timer.  He can probably be had for a bit less given his age, but if something happened to McCann do you want to rely on a catcher turning 38 to play every day?  Once again a trade for a current major league backup catcher or a top AAA performer might be a superior approach.

Now the starting pitching names that have been bandied about are as familiar as the top outfielders.  There’s no need to rehash the players set to earn 8 figures.  What needs to be examined are the mid tier hurlers who would cost less but still give decent innings facing a lineup 2-3 times in a start. 

My number one choice with a bullet is a guy who causes major agita for Mets fans -- Adam Wainwright.  Turning 39 this year, he’s coming off a 3.15 ERA and 10 starts last season while sporting a 3.38 ERA for his entire career.  He earned just $5 million for the Cardinals in 2020 and would likely be available for that sum or less.  Remember when people laughed when the Mets went after elder statesman Bartolo Colon?  That worked out pretty well.  

After Wainwright there are a number of older pitchers to consider, but some have had health issues.  Rich Hill seemed to get better and better as he aged, but he’s already 41 and coming off a very solid 2020 for the Twins in which he pitched to a 3.03 ERA, nearly mirroring his career ERA since 2010 which has sat at 3.05.  They paid him just $3 million for that performance so he fits on the quality and price fronts.

Jon Lester is an interesting possibility.  He was bought out for $10 million after a paycheck in the mid $20s.  Consequently he probably wouldn’t be looking for much more than $5 million to total $15 million after two bad seasons.  In 2018 he won 18 games for the Cubs with a 3.32 ERA for the season (and a 3.60 for his entire career).  If he’s healthy, that’s a bargain price but it would be more of the Rick Porcello type of gamble albeit at a lower price point.

Former Met reliever Collin McHugh went from a $5.8 million reliever with the Astros to a mixed role pitcher for the Red Sox.  He’s made 119 starts in his career and holds a 3.95 career ERA which paid him just $600,000 last season.  If he’s healthy, he’s old enough and unspecified enough to keep his price down while delivering out of the bullpen when Noah Syndergaard returns to the rotation.

Mike Fiers has classic 4th/5th starter talent but earned $8 million last year in Oakland.  I’d pass.  Cole Hamels can’t stay healthy and last year earned $18 million.  Pass.  Anibal Sanchez is a Mike Fiers clone.  Pass.  Jordan Zimmerman earned $25 million for 5th starter quality.  Pass.  Jeff Samardzija was worse than a 5th starter for nearly $20 million.  Pass.  Surely there are prospects and current starters worth exploring more than anyone on this list.

The bullpen is another mixed bag of free agent candidates.  Liam Hendriks is now gone but Brad Hand is still available, though for likely less than the $10 million he would have cost had anyone taken him after he was waived by Cleveland.  Bringing him onboard would open up the possibility of dealing away Jeurys Familia and his likely higher salary.  

One position we haven’t yet discussed is third base.  It’s pretty much a given that the hot corner is a two man competition between Luis Guillorme and J.D. Davis.  Some advocate moving Jeff McNeil to third where he suffered defensively to put the very sure handed Guillorme to pair with Francisco Lindor to form a world class double play combination. 

However, others think the position must come from outside the organization. Right now the free agent list of third basemen is not all that impressive.  After the very expensive Justin Turner or the even more expensive D.J. LeMahieu the choices drop pretty dramatically.  The issue here is finding someone who can help in more ways than one but not break the bank. 

My nominee for this opening would be second baseman Jonathan Schoop.  He’s bounced around a bit in his career, but the man has some serious home run power in a role where big offense is not often found.  After leaving Baltimore for Milwaukee and Minnesota he provided a .278 AVG with 8 HRs and 23 RBIs as a part time player for Detroit.  A few years back at age 25 he hit .293 with 32 HRs and 102 RBIs for the Orioles. 

Now at the ripe old age of just 29 he’s projected to hit 27 HRs and drive in 79.  While those numbers are not what he did in 2015, they’re still plenty respectable.  Imagine having him at 2B on a mid tier contract of about $5 million to play second with Jeff McNeil going back to third.  

Remember, until they decide what to do with the future innings and paycheck guaranteed to Robinson Cano, they can’t develop a long term solution unless they want a $24 million per year benchwarmer for the seasons of 2022 and 2023.  Some advocate cutting him but they would still owe him his contractual rate and it would count against the payroll towards the team salary cap.

So how do you all think they should proceed?