1/27/21

Reese Kaplan -- Trevor Ain't Clever -- Just Say No!

 


A few times now I’ve expressed some displeasure at the prospect of bringing a career 3.90 ERA pitcher onto the team and making him by all media counts the highest Average Annual Value (AAV) contract in the history of baseball.  We are talking, of course, about one Trevor Bauer, but today we’re going to look beyond the dollars and cents.

Currently the king of the AAV list is the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole.  Whether or not he deserves the enormous 9-year contract he got from the Bronx Bombers isn’t the issue here.  He’s paid $36 million per year for a period of nine years.  He was age 29 when he put on the pinstripes and currently sports a career record of 101-55 with a 3.19 ERA and has earned a WAR rating overall of 26 over his eight years in the majors.

Reports filtered out that the Mets allegedly were going to offer Bauer even more money because he’s an even better pitcher, right?  Well…his career record is 76-64 with a 3.90 ERA and a WAR over his nine-year career of 17.5.  To put it another way, he’s had two stellar seasons in the span (including the very short 2020 endeavor) but pitches overall far worse than the guy leading the pack in AAV.


Let’s forget about money for once and instead concentrate on what kind of player Trevor Bauer would be to have as part of the fabric of the Mets team.  First of all, he’s a hard worker.  No one can deny that about him.  However, his methods of exercise and his embracing of thinking-enhancement routines are a bit out of the ordinary.  That doesn’t make them bad, but different can sometimes rub teammates and trainers the wrong way.

Speaking of teammates, Mr. Bauer has had a great many of them over his career.  He’s pitched for three clubs thus far and is now pursuing his fourth.  The first question that arises is why there is so much team to team movement if he was the ace he claims to be?  After all, in seven of his nine seasons he’s been 4th to 5th starter quality. 


The issue today, however, isn’t what he does in preparation to take the mound or in the game itself.  It is a question of how well he’ll fit into the ballclub as he is a very active member of social media . It has not always been good. 

There was an infamous incident of fighting online with the police who objected to how he deployed his drones.  Then there was his active and vocal bashing of anti-Trump people after the man was elected President.  He’s bragged he’s a better pitcher than former teammate Corey Kluber (who has a 98-58 career record with a 3.16 ERA and earned 32.3 WAR).  Bauer can’t sniff those numbers.

The other issue is he’s pretty vicious whenever he disagrees with someone on social media.  It goes beyond the blocking of followers.  In one well-covered case he did not see eye to eye with a young lady who was critical of his arrogance online.  He went and found pictures of the woman drinking alcohol before age 21 and published them.  In the exchange he said he doesn’t perceive of himself as an adult but as a 12 year old child. 


So the question is whether the Mets want the latter day version of Curt Schilling (but worse) on their team?  If he pitched as well as Schilling, maybe you could make a baseball argument.  After all, Schilling won over 200 games and finished with 79.5 WAR.  Bauer’s nowhere near that caliber of hurler plus he brings even more disrespected and distasteful baggage with him.

There’s a reason it’s this far along in the pre-season and no one has yet snagged Bauer and his WWE agent to a contract.  Obviously there are concerns about his personality.  There should be equal concerns about his ability.  I don’t feel it is a smart move bringing a player on board who is more likely to land on the front page than the back page of the newspaper. 

18 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, all true, but in 2020, he allowed an ultra-sparse 43 hits in 81 innings and fanned 115. He may be crazy, but those numbers are crazy good. The question comes down to what part of 2020 be can replicate in 2021 and 2022.

A conundrum - and maybe Kluber is this year's Wacha.

As I noted earlier today, Ramos signed for 1 year, $2 million. Wonder if they feel Nido will be better than Ramos? $2 million for a back up catcher who can hit would not have been terrible.

holmer said...

I've posted before about Bauer and I strongly feel the Mets, because of Bauer's potentially being a clubhouse cancer, should stay as far away from him as they can. I've been a Mets fan since 1964 and signing him would not change that, but I would find it hard to root for this guy.

Zozo said...

I completely agree not to sign Bauer. Unless he is signing for Wheeler type contract it would be ok, but to give him money in the DeGrom and Cole stratosphere is completely unwarranted and dangerous.

He hasn’t earned it at all. Please I hope we don’t make this mistake it would be as big as A mistake as the Cano trade.

Tom Brennan said...

holmer, you could well turn out to be right.

But those Pedro-like 2020 numbers, if he can come close to replicating them, might make him tolerable.

I remember back to Zeile and Ventura actively campaigning to keep Sheffield off the Mets for "chemistry" reasons. He went to the Yankees (or LAD before him, can't recall) and he just totally tore up opposing pitchers.

Tom Brennan said...

Holmer, it was Atlanta, the Mets' arch-rival, that snapped Sheffield up after Zeile and Ventura said to avoid him. He was awesome for the next 2 years with the Braves.

Gary Seagren said...

I am thinking it's for one year because anything longer and we totally blow up the idea of keeping Conforto and Lindor not to mention Stroman and Thor. I could live with that and if he's just good not great he'd still help but if he's great we're probably going deep into the playoff's. Just the idea that were talking about this is exciting to me so lets not forget were we came from guys.

bill metsiac said...

I agree on the length. He may or may not turn out to be great, but we have FOUR current Mets whom we will lose after 2021 of we don't extend. Lindor and 4to are musts, and Stro and Thor are shoulds.

With Squirrel and Polar Bear getting close to Arbi years, how many of them must we lose because of Bauer?

I'd go very high for a One-year deal plus an option. Any more than that is just asking for trouble.

Anonymous said...

One quibble, first:

>> However, his methods of exercise and his embracing of thinking-enhancement routines are a bit out of the ordinary. That doesn’t make them bad, but different can sometimes rub teammates and trainers the wrong way. <<

They used to say this about Black players, and gay players. That it might make others uncomfortable.

I know that isn't what you mean, Reese, but it's a deeply flawed and dangerous line of thinking. Bauer does have very progressive ideas about fitness and training. It's not like MLB has done a great job with all the TJ surgeries. Jeff Passan wrote an excellent, illuminating book about that issue, featuring Bauer in part: THE ARM.

I mean to say: There are many valid reasons to want to pump the brakes on Bauer. That he's "different" is not one of them.

Jimmy

Anonymous said...

I also don't believe in the "clubhouse cancer" stuff.

I can't think of m/any players who have ruined a clubhouse. In my experience on teams, and observing professional teams, it takes all kinds of individuals. If you want a cookie cutter team, as the Wilpons often did, then you will miss out of some talent. There's a range of players, that's part of the beauty of the deal.

I also don't think a pitcher can be a cancer. They only matter when they are on the mind.

I do think that the media, the bloggers, the twitter folks, all of those people could make it much worse. Nowadays, we hate everybody. We would have hated Gil Hodges (he orchestrated the Ryan trade). We would have driven Cashen out of NY (he arrived, traded for George Foster and left Seaver unprotected), and we certainly would have tossed AJ Preller (GM of Padres) out of town after what he did in his first two years in San Diego. It's an ugly world out there, we love to pile on. Brodie lasted a season and a third and was made Public Enemy #1 for the Diaz trade.

Is Bauer kind of a dick? It sure seems that way.

Can he pitch? I think so.

I also think it is deliberately misleading to continually describe him by his CAREER ERA. If you look at him numbers over the last three seasons, he's near the top in ERA+. And he's the best guy available.

It's the not the direction I would have gone -- or would go. This is Sandy's idea. But it's not my money. If the Mets added Bauer, that rotation looks pretty fierce: deGrom, Bauer, Carrasco, Strohman, Syndergaard.

I'm not nearly as amped up on extensions as the rest of the fanbase. Conforto is a year away.

The advantage to an extension is to lock in a player at a bargain rate -- you offer security, he takes a bit of a pay cut. To do this effectively, you decide on a guy 3-4 years before free agency. To do it with Conforto now, you are just paying top dollar on the heels of his best two months in baseball. We have the richest owner in the game. If we really want to keep someone, we will keep him.

On Bauer, I'm not really pro or con. For him to come here, it will be a complicated contract with opt-outs and everything else. Sandy seems to believe in his talent. Cohen seems okay with the cash. I won't be upset if he's on our team this coming season. It's only money, a pure addition.

Jimmy

Tom Brennan said...

Jimmy

I agree that the focus has to be on what Bauer did lately - entirely not due to his fault, 2020 was short. But he pitched like Pedro in his prime.

Can he do it again? Dunno. But how many guys have Pedro in his prime 80 inning stretches? Scherzer, deGrom, Cole, and...?

Again, Sheffield was deemed a cancer - until the Mets brought him in years later than they should have.

And who's to say Cohen won't run a $300 million salary to win, and wean it down as the few young talents in the farm system prove they can play with a superior team.

This ain't Wilpons' Mets any more.

Rick Miller said...

Will the team be better on the field with or without Bauer?
We were happy to get a billionaire owner because his billions could overcome mistakes.
So far, he’s “monitoring” (a very Jeff word), a lot of players that could help the team.
Making it worse’ some are going to rivals.
Weren’t we more excited then this about Cohen?
A 3-5 year projection of a championship is fine.
But what about the team next year?
So far, this team has an outside shot at a wild card.
Thinking 3-5 years from now will not include Jake.
Certainly not the Jake is now.
And he’s irreplaceable.
I was hoping for the drunken sailor billionaire.
They’re fun.
And this is a game.

Remember1969 said...

Jimmy, not sure if your comment "don't believe in the clubhouse cancer" stuff also means that you don't believe that clubhouse chemistry also doesn't matter much.

I am a firm believer in clubhouse chemistry. It seems as the Mets have developed a good clubhouse over the last couple years. That can get upset and things can go south with a team in a hurry.

I actually believe that Bryce Harper is a good example. He had a couple different dugout fights with teammates and his last couple years in D.C. were among the best teams on paper that anyone would want. I smiled when they won the World Series the year after he left.

I posted the following on another site thread regarding Bauer earlier this week. It is still applicable:

I do not want Bauer on this staff making more than Jake. His pitching resume does not warrant that.

I am not one to pontificate about how good or bad a person he is, but I am a huge believer in clubhouse chemistry. . . see Bryce Harper. Because of some of the past incidents (throwing the ball over the wall), I kind of wonder if Bauer is a plus or a minus for the team. Will his whining about pitching every 4 days stop? That is a distraction from the get-go.

I like the Dallas Keuchel reference – a good pitcher for a couple years that has not sustained it.

I really hope they do not push themselves over the cap with this one signing. Walker, relief pitcher (Doolittle for the lefty? Wilson ? McGee?), and even JBJ will cost a lot less and deliver more.

Rick Miller said...

And our billionaire might be distracted.

https://nypost.com/2021/01/27/mets-fans-worried-over-steve-cohens-gamestop-involvement/

Anonymous said...

Remember69,

I'm always glad to read your thoughts.

Harper is a good example of a (cough, cough) cancer.

He's kind of a jerk. Big ego. I'm not a fan.

And he was so awful and overbearing that Realmuto wanted no part of that clubhouse moving forward.

Oh, wait. He gladly re-upped.

There are 25 guys on a baseball team. You have to be a major, unbelievable jerk on a very weak team to upset that apple cart. And as I tried to say, I think pitchers are separate to begin with. They kind of live on their own planet. On a basketball team, when there's only one ball to share, it's much more of an issue. (Kyrie Irving would worry me if I was a Nets fan.)

Does "chemistry" matter? Sure, I think so, to an extent. I don't think that we as fans have our pulse on that. I think a team's culture is stronger than one guy. Seems like the Mets have a very solid core. If there's a self-absorbed dude who pitches every 5th game over there -- and pitches his heart out -- I think it's fine. The history of baseball is littered with those guys.

Mostly I think the "cancer" thing is a fan expressing his dislike for a particular player. My bet is every single one of these guys has had numerous teammates they didn't care for off the field. My original Mets hero, Jerry Koosman, is famously, somewhat obnoxiously conservative. But what a teammate. He's got your back. What a player.

Again: I'm not saying that Bauer is my guy. I wanted Springer. But I don't super care that he's a jerk. I'd prefer he wasn't. I think it's much more problematic for the fans and the media than it is for the guys in clubhouse, who understand the diverse nature of team sports. I might be wrong.

There's also the example of the "Bronx Zoo." Reggie and Thurman and all of that. Goose Gossage, my God!

Give me talent.

Jimmy

Remember1969 said...

Very fair points, Jimmy.

I understand and pretty much agree with you throughout, although I may be a bigger believer of chemistry being the 26th (now 27th) man.

I see some teams - seems like the 2015 Royals were one - where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.

You make a good point about the pitchers club differing from the position players. I would go even further to think that the bullpen guys differ from the starters, but having never been in an MLB clubhouse, I don't know that. That fact alone, true for many of us out here in the cyberworld, makes it impossible to know the true character of a player, let alone an entire team and its relationships. We only form opinions from things we see and read. Ex. I am impressed with Trevor May and think he'll bring a lot to the team. McCann, the same, but a little less rah-rah, maybe.

I do remember the incident with Wright and Thor in the clubhouse in that first spring training for Syndergaard. That is player leadership breaking up a potential problem.

I like to read stories about the cookie club and other off the field relationships.

Also in this light, not just in sports, but I just remember some of the work teams I have been on my past career as a systems analyst for a large corporation. We had some great times and got a lot done together. There were other departments where I worked that were not as cohesive and it seemed like more of a chore to get the job done.

Good discussion - Thanks

Remember1969 said...

Now with all that being said, the primary reason I don't want Bauer is a dual financial discussion.
(1) His salary would blow by the luxury tax and seemingly handcuff other changes from being made.
(2) He does not (yet?) have a good enough full body of work to yield the highest contract in the majors (or on the Mets).

Viper said...

Signing Bauer will be a huge mistake by the Mets. As usual, they are blinded by the light when it comes to other teams stars but fail to see their own.

Is anyone going to be happy if signing Bauer costs the Mets Conforto or Syndergaard?

I read somewhere that Bauer will cost more than extending Syndergaard and Conforto combined. Or was it Syndergaard and Stroman?. Either way, when you factor in the pandemic, the lack of revenue, why would you put yourself in a no win situation when most teams are looking to dump expensive contracts?

Why not wait and take advantage that no team wants to pay crazy contracts to superstar type players?.

Reese Kaplan said...

Some want Cohen to spend with an uncontrolled frenzy to buy a pennant. Some want him to fix the underlying problems and build a perennial contender. The truth lies somewhere in between these two extremes. My thoughts on Bauer are well known, but he's not the worst choice to make. However, with so many other holes to fill, I'd rather see money spread around on several players, not all tied up in the guy with the big mouth and only 2 good seasons out of 9.