Well, it’s been a whirlwind of rumor and activity lately for
the Mets!
First came the acquisition of lefty reliever Aaron Loup. As an effective sidearmer who gets
out lefties with aplomb and holds his own against righties, he’s a good
consolation prize for the closer Brad Hand who will find out whether or not he’s
a fan of Capitol cuisine.
It’s understandable that Hand wanted to continue in the role
in which he’s excelled for the past several seasons since converting to the
bullpen full time. With Edwin Diaz
having turned in an amazing season last year for the Mets and the fact he earns
a small fraction of what Hand does, it didn’t make sense for the Mets to push
hard to try to miscast Hand the same way they did with Jeurys Familia.
The other thing to bear in mind is that not only is Loup a lefty, but he’s also a VERY different look for opposing hitters to master. How many of you remember the righty version, Jeff Innis? He pitched for the Mets for 7 years from 1987 through 1993. During that period he racked up a lot of appearances, including a high of 76 games in 1992. Even if you include his injury-plagued season in 1993 that ended his career with a poor 4.11 ERA, his performance level for his entire career was just at 3.05.
They haven’t released numbers for the Loup loot,
but given what he’s earned in the past and factoring in a slight bump for his
fine 2020 campaign, most folks are speculating in a deal less than 25% of what
Hand would have cost. It was a good
move.
Of course, that wasn’t the only move the Mets made this
week. Steve Matz apparently wore out his
welcome despite all the feel good stories about how he would improve with his
off-season catching partner, James McCann, now on the Queens payroll. He was awful last year, holds a significant
losing record over the past few seasons and has suffered a number of stints on
the IL due to an assortment of pitching arm maladies. At age 29 he had had plenty of time to make good
but has not really done so.
If you analyze the deal a little further, it calls to mind
the end of the 2017 season when the Mets unceremoniously sold off Jay Bruce,
Addison Reed, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda and others in what were clearly cash-infusion
deals getting other clubs to pay their remaining salaries. No one the Mets got back in any of those
trades amounted to much, but the goal was payroll savings, not improving the
ballclub.
Look now at the Matz trade and the three younger players the
Blue Jays gave up in exchange for the veteran lefty. None of the three righties were in the Toronto
Top Ten lists for minor leaguers and although there’s been some occasional
positive news on all of them, it doesn’t suggest the Mets made a steal
here. No one is dancing in the streets
about who they acquired, and it is very reminiscent of the 2017 trade deadline
dumps.
The one key difference this time around is that the money
saved will be applied to bring more significant resources to the Mets. The Matz departure means $5.2 million is
flying north of the border. If they can
find a taker for Jeurys Familia, then another $11.66 million will fly the coop. That nearly $17 million gone from payroll can help
finance the cost of an athletic center fielder or a loudmouthed pitcher. It could also pave the way for more trade
transactions to take place that bring back salary which is offset by ridding
the team of current obligations to people who were not considered part of the
core.
As an example, the much ballyhooed trade to bring back Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez from Cincinnati would add $10.166 million for the hurler
and $10.78 million for the third baseman.
Think that one through for a minute.
If the Mets can dump $17 million in salary for two unwanted players and
bring in two wanted and needed players for less than $5 million more, that’s
indeed smart front office procedure.
No one knows what to expect from newly minted acting GM Zack
Scott nor do they know how to interpret the whole GameStop thing with Steve
Cohen. However, there are still a great
many holes to fill on this team and people need to realize that putting all
your eggs into one Cy Young Award winner’s basket is not the only path
available.
6 comments:
Addition by subtraction. If we can move Familia and replace him with something cheaper, that would be great.
It appears the Loup deal is for $3M guaranteed. Seems a little high on the surface, but. . .
My problem with the Matz 'salary dump' is that it seem like he could have been used as better value to improve the team in other areas. Other than the idea that Cincy might not want him, involving him in a trade for Gray would seem to make more sense. Now if they want to make that trade, they have to include other pieces. More than what they got back from Matz? Probably, but who knows. .
If you compare stat for stat, Gray is a far superior pitcher to Matz. That is why I characterized the Matz transaction as a salary dump to help pay for someone better. As I laid out in the article, moving Familia and Matz comes within $5 million of paying for the solid starter in Gray and the slugging third baseman in Suarez. I have no problem with either move if they can make it happen. It doesn't have to be the Reds. They could do a bundle to Milwaukee around Lorenzo Cain and reliever Josh Hader or a similar deal for someone else. Freeing up money makes those kinds of deals possible.
Good piece, Reese. I doubt very much they'll find a taker for Familia without paying a good deal of that salary themselves.
The issue I have that without Matz, they have less pieces to trade with unless they trade only prospects, and they are already short. Matz in a trade for Cain would have made some sense - he was making about a third of Cain's salary and Milwaukee could/should have been expected to pick that up along with getting a servicable MLB left handed starter in exchange for their own salary dump.
And let's face it .. i'll go a little stronger on Mikes point . . Familia ain't going anywhere without either (1) eating the salary, which doesn't help, or (2) getting back a big contract (Bryant or Arenado) in return. I cannot see any scenario where Cincinnati would take Familia in any trade.
Lastly, Arenado (and even Suarez) is unneeded at this point - the closet Mets prospects from MLB are left side infielders in Mauricio, Vientos, and then Baty.
Having Arenado and hopefully Lindor tied up for 6 years causes a jam there by 2023. As some people point out, you can't fix everything in one year. Let's try to fly at third base with a combo of J.D. Davis and Guillorme for a year or so and see how those prospects develop before spending a ton of money and creating a clog.
Gentleman we are living in a whole new world and I'm loving it. No longer are we thinking that every move has to do with dumping salary or finding the cheaper player. Steve Cohen has changed our thinking and we are not used to it yet. We lived in a world were Jeff Wilpon thought he was the smartest guy in the room (fill in laugh track here) to a world were Steve Cohen IS the smartest guy in the room. We go from having our first two ownerships being fans of other teams when they bought the Mets to finally having a passionate MET fan as an owner and by the way he has some extra cash to spend to improve this club. I really believe anything's possible now going forward and if he has to go over the cap so be it. For me I like the Cain/Hader move but I'll leave it up to them and love what's in store for us.
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