Tom Brennan - STRIKEOUTS ARE NOT A METS' PROSPECT HITTER'S BEST FRIEND

First of all, I am all in on the Francisco Lindor trade.  Most elite teams in baseball have elite players - we now have a guy in Lindor who immediately becomes the best non-pitcher on the Mets.  How do you spell, "Major Upgrade"?  

Carlos Carrasco also very nicely beefs up the Mets' rotation, in my view.  

Nice work.  Nascent Big Market Team Work!

Now, moving on...

Interesting recent articles on another site listed Jaylen Palmer as their # 8 Mets prospect and Shervyen Newton as their # 12 prospect.

Both are quite athletic.  Good to outstanding in that regard.

Both are projected to have good (or better) power.

But both strike out a lot.

Sherveyn has been around longer.  He was in the DSL in 2016 and 2017, and Kingsport rookie ball in 2018 and Columbia A ball in 2019.

Jaylen? 2018 in the Gulf Coast League, and 2019 in Kingsport.

Newton fanned 89 times in 403 PAs in the DSL, 22%; 84 times in 266 PAs in Kingsport, 32%; and 139 times in 423 PAs in Columbia in 2019, 33%.  Those are very high percentages.

Palmer fanned 27 of 100 times up in 2018, 27%, and 108 times in 276 PA in 2019, 39%.  Those are very high percentages.

So, let's compare them in that regard to (until yesterday) a Mets player development success story, Andres Gimenez.  

His K rate by year and minor league level is as follows:

2016 DSL            8%

2017 Columbia  15%

2018 Hi A/AA   18%

2019 AA            21%

2020 MLB         21% 

What this tells me is that a very good hitter like Gimenez fanned MORE as he climbed the ladder and faced tougher pitching.

His lower minors and DSL K rates were MUCH lower than Palmer and Newton.

Is it reasonable to expect that Palmer and Newton can REDUCE substantially their K rate as they climb higher, when Gimenez fanned MORE as he went higher?

Seems unlikely.

I think better comps might be Ivan Wilson and Vicente Lupo, two fairly recent prospect athletes who struck out a lot and could never solve it.  Both eventually crapped out at Columbia.

Champ Stuart is another recent athletic speedster prospect who could never improve his K rate and fizzled after hitting .200 and fanning 242 times in 709 PAs in his highest level, AA.

I hope Jaylen Palmer's and Sheveyn Newton's K rates were the result of them being extremely raw and we'll see drastic improvement in 2021.  I love to see Mets prospects succeed.

I just think that without drastic contact improvement, they will find the steepening climb tough, and thus not warrant a #8 and # 12 ranking.

Because if they don't fix it, within a few years they may go the way of Wilson, Lupo, and Stuart.

If they do fix it dramatically, though?  Maybe they too can be the next Lindor.  Can't have too many Lindors, at least how I see it.

Last reference: the Mets signed Robel Garcia and he is playing in winter ball right now.  In 2019, he had a strong, but relatively high strikeout, power hitting year in the upper minors. And got called up to the Cubs in 2019.  And fanned an incredibly high 35 times in 80 PAs.  Travis Taijeron stuff.  Strikeouts are career-squelchers for hitters.