A Brandon Nimmo Smiling Emoji
There's nothing like good health:
BON SANTE, MONSIEUR, as I think they say in Paris.
Ahh, health...I shoveled snow in our snowy, snowy Long Island February, and prior to it had some aches in the shoulder, forearm and back.
Needless to say, I was achier afterwards. I was put in the IL - Idiot's List - for not paying someone else to do it for me.
But, not to worry, I was clocked throwing 96 the other day. I threw two balls at 48 MPH, and that adds up to 96, just to be clear.
Anyway...Baseball players can play injured or play healthy.
They usually do much better healthy.
Mack Mets' writer Craig Mitchell recently reminded us that Tom Seaver had sciatica in 1974 and finished an un-Seaver-like 11-11, 3.20 that season. THE STUFF OF MERE MORTALS. OUCH!
In the case of Brandon Nimmo, how has he played when healthy recently?
Well, in early 2019, he had a bulging disk in his neck, making it hard to react to pitches, and as a result missed much of the season, returning for 26 games late in the season.
In 2020, due to the shortened season, a healthy Nimmo played 55 games. Late 2019 (26 games) and 2020 (55 games) add up to 81 games, exactly the length of half a season.
How did he hit in those 81 contests?
Well, he walked 53 times and was HBP 8 others, so he got on at least 61 times without a hit, and had 12 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 HRs to boot. So far, so good.
And, for those healthy 81 games, he had a robust .412 OBP and a delightful .506 slugging %.
That is pretty darned terrific, if you ask me.
And not a fluke, since his 2018 full season, "when healthy" slash line was a mighty satisfactory .263/.404/.483.
The highly coveted King George Springer the First, in his career, has an OBP of .361 and slugging % of .491.
Hmm...Nimmo's 2019-20 numbers are - huh? - better...Hmm.
Let us take pause so that sinks in a bit.
Heck, the Mets' Gold Standard, Captain America, David Wright, was .376 OBP/.491 SLUG in his career. Less than Nimmo's 2019-20.
Rickey Henderson was pretty good, right? Career .401 OBP, .419 SLUG. But, Nimmo in 2019-20 was higher at .412/.506, and those are Brandon's numbers, not mine, so get mad at him, not me for bringing it up. Get mad at Nimmo, OK?
Am I making my point?
Now, if Nimmo truly can ratchet his CF play up to merely about average, that would make for a fine CF. His arm does not have any Andre Dawson in it, to be honest, and wow, what an arm Dawson had, with 157 career outfield assists, and only that "low" because runners knew the complete futility of testing his howitzer.
But despite Nimmo's substandard rifle, he does have slightly above average speed, so there seems to me no reason he cannot improve that defense to around league average in CF.
He of course is motivated to do so more than any of us fans, as his fielding prowess (or lack thereof) will greatly impact his future free agent (or contract extension) bucks.
I for one am truly happy with a healthy Nimmo. Even in CF.
Maybe everyone should be, if they really consider the above.
Brandon looked happy and healthy yesterday, doing what he does best - getting on base his first two times up. I want crowded basebaths, not crowded dugouts. GO BRANDON!
11 comments:
To quote the great Mr. Brennan who has made my point for me, "Now, if Nimmo truly can ratchet his CF play up to merely about average..." That's the problem. He, like Alonso and Davis, are WELL below average in the field. That's 1/3 of your defense.
Reese, I am just hoping that if Brandon plays a few steps deeper, that will solve a big part of his problem - turning long flies into doubles and triples by not going back on balls well.
Agree Tom but I'm still holding out hope they approve the DH because were MUCH better with Brandon in LF, Smith at 1b and Alonso at DH and by the way why no mention of Johneswhy Fargas? (spell check)
The DH would make tons of sense, but they HAVE to decide soon, as teams look to set their rosters up strategically. Nimmo in left, Smith at first, and (no offense to Pete) Alonso as a most-of-the-time DH would be awesome. Pillar would be thrilled too.
Gary, I think you nailed the Fargas spelling. He realistically is about 7th or 8th, at best, in the potential opening day outfielders' list.
Nimmo is a LF playing out of position until a better (overall) option presents itself.
Reading the last comment, I would modify it to say:
Nimmo is an on-base machine LF playing out of position until a better (overall) option presents itself.
I'm expecting Brandon to have a career year this year - if he stays healthy.
If he does what you say Tom, they better lock him now or he will cost way more than Conforto!
Here's one way of looking at Brandon Nimmo.
PLAYER A (Career)
2,501 PA .259/.358/.484 (843 OPS)
PLAYER B (Career)
1,309 PA .258/.390/448 (838 OPS)
Pretty similar. One gets on base more, the other hits for more power. In the analytics community, it is widely & generally accepted that OBA is worth 1.6 more than SLG. Put simply, computers have conclusively proven that it's more valuable in terms of creating runs.
PLAYER A (ZIPS 2021 Projection)
.264/.368/.475 wOBA .356
PLAYER B (ZIPS 2021 Projection)
.244/.373/.439 wOBA .349
PLAYER A, as you likely guessed, is Michael Conforto.
PLAYER B is Brandon Nimmo.
Not all that different statistically, though personally I'd give a slight edge to Conforto. But I would contend that the difference is far wider in the public's mind than in reality.
Because of service time, Conforto is earning $12,250 in 2021. Nimmo makes $4,700.
Right now, fans appear to be strongly advocating that the Mets sign Conforto at, say, the Springer rate of 6/$150 million. Maybe the Mets can keep that down to 5/$130 or whatever. Seems like an overpay to me, but such is life. It's a gamble. I like the guy.
Meanwhile, Nimmo is under team control for two more seasons. He'll likely make, oh, $10 million next season.
When it comes to extending contracts, my core belief is that it's an exchange: The team offers the player more money NOW, and greater SECURITY & STABILITY moving forward, in exchange for a discounted AAV. In order for this to work for both sides, timing is everything. The sooner you offer an extension, the greater the AAV discount.
For Conforto, under Boras, I believe that ship has sailed. No discounts. He's a free agent in 6 months. Now we're just hoping to extend him out of fear of where this might go in the offseason when every team is able to bid. So there could be a bit of a tiny discount by acting now. OTOH, if he struggles . . . or plays to past averages . . . the Mets may wonder why they are giving him an "elite" contract for "very good" performance. Maybe he's a 5/$100 player.
I think the Mets should be extending Nimmo.
Let's say Nimmo earns $5 and $10 million in 2021 and 2022. You go to him and say, beginning now, we'll sign you to a 5-year deal (2021-2025) at an AAV of $14 millon. That is: 5/$70 million. In the next two years, instead of earning $15 million you'll make $28 million. And for that pleasure, we retain you as a NEW YORK MET at that rate through the next 5 years.
Defensively, Nimmo gets a slight edge over Conforto (obviously, the team thinks he's the better CF).
Offensively, Conforto gets a slight edge.
Now look at the money.
I see Nimmo as a huge asset. A top-of-the-order guy who gets on base better than just about anyone in baseball. He's better than most people realize, IMO.
Jimmy
Jimmy, remarkably well summarized. I first of all think the Nimmi projection is too low. Cut out the bulging neck time in early 2019 and he otherwise has a .410 OBP since the beginning of 2018. Why would he drop to .373? Secondly, Conforto had his MLB-high BABIP last year. Now THAT is likely to recede. I would extend Nimmi either now or this off season, probably the latter, for 2 reasons: a bit injury-prone, and 2) too willing to get HBP, which could cause injuries.
Good job Jimmy.
Post a Comment