Remember1969: 2021 MLB Predictions

 

     Remember1969's  Predictions:  Round 2

Disclaimer:  This is for those that are interested in the rest of Major League Baseball.   Stop here if you only care about the Mets.   It is also a little longer than I initially planned.

A week or so ago, I wrote an initial prognostication article that dealt primarily with the Mets and their players.   Earlier this week I commented on Tom Brennan's "Calling all Mets Experts"  (not sure what drove me to comment as I am not so much an expert as just a random guy with opinions).     The following will expand and expound on that original article and comment.

In my prior prediction piece, I had picked the order of finish in the National League East as:

1:  Mets 90-72

2:  Tie  Braves and Nats  85-77

4:  Marlins

5:  Phillies

 And then this week I have looked closer and really soured on the Nationals chances, so I changed it up and took 15 games away from them.   (Yup, just some random fan with an ever changing opinion).

 So my expanded picks with some thoughts behind them.

 1:  Mets  92-70     This team looks solid from most angles.  The defense is still a little worrisome, and the hitting with runners in scoring position and base running issues from last year are still to be determined, but the offense could score 800 or more runs and the pitching staff is much improved.    Replacing Ramos with McCann is a massive upgrade and signing Lindor long term redefines the character of the organization.   The Mets seem to be built to win now. 

2:  Braves  87-75    Any team led by Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Freddie Freeman will be a force to be reckoned with.   But any team the can keep Pablo Sandoval as one of the best 13 non-pitchers shows some holes. 

3:  Marlins  81-81  This team will be pesky and tough all year.   Their young pitching will be very tough.   There will be some scary road trips through Miami for teams that have to face their top three.

4:  Phillies  79-83    There is just something about the Phillies that I cannot put my finger on.   Perhaps it is that their recent history has shown promise, but not much winning.   I always have felt that Girardi usually got more out of a team than there should be, but I have also felt that Harper does not drive a winning atmosphere.   It will be more of the same in 2021.   Harper will be good on paper, not cohesive on the field or in the clubhouse and the pitching will show its holes.

5:  Nationals  70-92   As I am writing this on Friday after the initial series with the Mets has been canceled due to COVID, I am even more convinced in my earlier statement that much will go wrong with this team and they will really struggle to win games.   The top four starters are 36, 32, 31, and 37 years old.   Injuries or steep regression are quite likely with this crew and there is not a lot of depth behind them.

 The rest of baseball:

NL Central   

1: Cardinals     2: Brewers   3: Cubs   4: Reds   5:  Pirates

This will be an interesting division.    It seemed that no team really wanted to 'win the offseason' and do what it takes to put themselves head and shoulders ahead of the others.  

The Cards made a nice move with Arenado, but they didn't really address their outfield and they could use another mid-rotation pitcher.   They have the makings of an historic infield. 

The Brewers always seem to get better results than I think they should have, but maybe it is just me underestimating their overall roster.   They have a very fine bullpen, an annual MVP candidate in Yelich, and some decent starting pitching.  A couple under the radar free agent signings in Wong and Bradley should help them stay near St. Louis most of the year.

The other three clubs played "How do we tank without saying we are tanking?"   

The Cubs traded their #1 starter and non-tendered their 2020 starting left fielder, but kept some of the other pieces that were thought to have been traded in Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez, all entering their Free Agency year.   They did sign Jake Arrieta for the rotation, but he should be depth, not the #2 guy.  They also signed Joc Pederson who looked very strong in the spring, but has contact issues.      

The Reds traded their closer,  lost their #1 starter to free agency,  let their starting shortstop walk as a free agent, all  without making much effort to sign others to fill those slots, and generally were rumored to be trading their top two remaining starters all winter.  Neither was actually traded, but one is opening the year on the IL.   It seems odd that this is a team that was thought to be making some noise last year, but kind of stalled out in the rebuild.

The Pirates have accumulated a bunch of young players in some of their recent trades and should be a fun team to watch.  They are too short of pitching and experience to threaten in the division

NL West  

I am going out on a limb here and doing something that I haven't seen any other 'expert' do:

1: Padres   2: Dodgers   3: Giants   4: Diamondbacks   5:  Rockies

The Padres and Dodgers or Dodgers and Padres, on paper look to be the two strongest teams in the league (by far).  

The pitching that the Padres acquired over the winter, as well as some of the other younger guys already there will pay immediate dividends and take them to the division title.   A shortstop named Tatis, Jr. will spread the energy around.   This team will be outstanding.

The Dodgers are the Dodgers.   They have spent mucho bucks on the roster and will be very good.   Trevor Bauer, like Bryce Harper on the other coast does not shout cohesive team player and will play into their second place finish. 

The Giants will find it unlucky to be in the same division as their southern competitors, but will hold their own and play around with the .500 mark.   Without having to face SD and LA a total of 38 times, they could challenge for the 2nd wild card, but will fall short of that goal in 2021.    

The Diamondbacks and Rockies just don't have enough depth anywhere to challenge.   Old Mets friend Asdrubal Cabrerra is on the depth chart at all four infield positions for Arizona.   Trading Nolan Arenado did not help Colorado.  Trevor Story is the big guy left there. 

AL East  

1: Blue Jays   2:  Yankees  3: Rays   4: Red Sox   5: Orioles

Again, I'm picking against convention to call the Blue Jays in the East.   Their young core players will mature this year and be a very strong team.   They will have enough pitching to go with their top to bottom strong offense. 

The Yankees lineup again looks strong, but they really need good fortune in the rotation to be as good a team as most of the experts are predicting.    #2 and # 5 starters Corey Kluber and Jamison Taillon, respectively,  have each thrown 37 innings since the end of 2018.    #3 guy Domingo German did not pitch at all last year, and #4 Jordan Montgomery threw 44 innings in 2020 after pitching only 31 combined in 2018 and 2019.    Can they count on these arms to stay fresh behind ace Gerrit Cole all year?   

The Rays are magicians with getting more out of a roster that is mostly unknown than any other team in baseball.   It will be fun to see if Randy Arozarena can continue his exciting play from the 2020 World Series.   Trading Blake Snell and replacing him in the rotation with Michael Wacha, however, was not the way to stay on top of the division.  

The Red Sox pitching will keep them from making any noise, and their offense is not as scary as one with Mookie Betts in it.   They have subtracted and have not added enough

The Orioles are a team on the rise.   They have quite a few good young prospects and the return of Trey Mancini will be uplifting to them.  They will be a tougher opponent than the past couple years, but are still a year or two away from being one of the top teams of the division.   And, I did not realize until doing some research for this article that the Orioles actually finished ahead of the Red Sox in fourth place in 2020.   That is a real possibility again in 2021.  

AL Central   

1: White Sox   2: Twins   3: Indians   4: Royals   5: Tigers

This will be a very exciting division to watch.   I think any of the teams not named White Sox or Twins could actually be at the bottom.   The Royals and Tigers could both leapfrog Cleveland.

The White Sox, in spite of trading Fernando Tatis, Jr. five years ago, have built a great system which will pay off in a huge way in 2021, although losing Eloy Jimenez to injury for the year will hurt.     

The Twins are an annual threat in the division and will be again with a strong line-up and decent, if not deep pitching. 

The Indians have the pitching, but the offense will struggle to score a lot of runs.  Their outfield has a lot of holes and they are priming Amed Rosario to play centerfield.     Look for a lot of 3 to 2 games from this team.

The Royals are an exciting mix of homegrown and acquired talent which can do a lot of damage on offense.  The question is whether they will have enough pitching for the long haul.   They could cause some issues for the other teams in the division as they will be a tough team to play.

The Tigers are up and coming with several recent high draft picks reaching the majors with a potentially very good starting staff.  Ex-Met farmhand and ex-ROY Michael Fulmer (of the Cespedes trade) lost his rotation spot this spring.    They look better than the doormat they have been for a couple years, but are still a player or two and a year of experience away from moving up in the standings.   AJ Hinch, in spite of his past cheating scandal, is still a very good manager.

AL West   

1: A's   2: Angels   3: Astros   4:  Mariners   5: Rangers

Another intriguing division which will be fun to watch play out.  

The A's are the pick here only because they have been hanging around the top for several years and the Astros will fade allowing them to take the division. They have some good pitching and a solid core of everyday players.  

The Angels, ..er  Trouts, will finally get to the playoffs by earning a strong second place finish in the West.   They have done enough over the off season to get there, although adding one more quality starter would have given them a clear advantage to overtake everyone.   They have the best player in baseball leading a fine offense.  

The Astros will finally get knocked down as their starting pitching will be exposed.    Odorizzi will help when he comes back, but it will not be enough to get to the playoffs. 

The Mariners and Rangers will be on the outside looking in in this division.   The M's have a very nice young outfield (Jared Kelenic, anyone?), but lack the pitching depth to challenge the rest of the league.

The Post Season    

National League Wild Cards:   Dodgers and Braves

National League Champion:   Mets over the Padres    

Playoff note:  Noah Syndergaard will be back and throwing very well by October and lead this team through the playoffs.    A starting rotation of deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Carassco, and Walker will be very difficult to face for the other teams.   

American League Wild Cards:   Yankees and Angels

American League Champion:   White Sox over the A's

None of the Blue Jays, Yankees or Angels will have enough pitching to complete the task.

World Series:   Mets over White Sox.    James McCann will be the WS MVP.        

Best NL team to not make the playoffs:   Giants - they are really in a tough spot in that division.

Best AL team to not make the playoffs:   Twins

Biggest NL dive:   Nationals.   They will really struggle in 2021.

Biggest AL dive:   Astros, only because they will fall out of the playoffs.  The Indians could also be in this discussion.

 Player Awards

 NL MVP:   Nolan Arenado     Getting out of Colorado will do wonders for his chances.

AL MVP:   Mike Trout      Not very original or creative - my other choice is Tim Anderson. 

 NL Rookie of the Year:    Ke'Bryan Hayes

AL Rookie of the Year:    Nick Madrigal

 NL Cy Young:    Jacob deGrom

AL Cy Young:    Jesus Luzardo

And finally . . .         

For you Mets fans who have followed this all the way through, Pete Alonso will again lead the majors in Home Runs.