Fans are always interested to try to figure out what to expect from the team's top prospects.
Fangraphs compiles 2022 projections for current major leaguers and minor leaguers. A very nice reference tool.
I do not know how Fangraphs calculates those projections, nor do I care, but this is what they indicate for some of the Mets' top minors arms:
Adam Oller - minor league pitcher of the year, 27 next season: 46 IP, 8 starts, 3-3, 4.41 ERA. Let's hope he is available to rack up more innings than that in 2022.
Thomas Szapucki - 13 innings, 1-1, 4.53 ERA - why so few innings? Not sure - my guess is Fangraphs sees most of his 2022 in the minors, which is not a comforting thought.
Joshua Walker - 1 inning. After his 9-4 minor league season, let's hope that there is more to Walker than 1 Mets inning in 2022.
Jose Butto - pitching only as high as AA last season, Fangraphs has Jose at 1 inning in 2022.
Brian Metoyer - 1 inning in 2022. Ryley Gilliam? 1 IP.
It seems 1 inning is a marker for guys that the Fangraphs folks don't anticipate making it to the bigs in 2022.
Anyone I'm leaving out? No, it's too soon for JT Ginn, sorry.
So, if you ascribe to Fangraphs projections as bing pretty accurate, not much 2022 MLB hope above, is there? Few wins, few losses, and few total IP, when a team throws about 1,500 total innings each year.
Hence, we look back at what else was already there from last year.
Jordan Yamamoto is one - Fangraphs has him making 11 starts and 25 total appearances, 77 innings, 4-5, 4.84. Not great, but after his 2021 rocky journey, I'd take that from him, if he’s needed that much.
Tylor Megill? Fangraphs projects 24 starts, 9-8, 3.86. Feels about right, although I am hoping for 30 starts and about 12-10 from the big guy. That's a solid 4/5.
Interestingly, by comparison Norseman, our dearly departed Noah Syndergaard, is pegged at just 9-10, 4.53.
So, Fangraphs thinks our sub $1 million guy Megill is better than their $21 million guy? Interesting.
Trevor Williams? 6-6 in 46 games and 13 starts. 103 IP and a 4.21 ERA. Decent enough - I'd take it. Also better than Noah.
Steve Nogosek? 1-1 in 10 innings, 4.19 ERA. (Well, he was non-tendered).
Yennsy Diaz? 1-1, 28 outings, 28 IP, 4.62 ERA.
Sean Reid-Foley? 2-2, 40 IP, 40 relief outings, 3.83 ERA.
Jake Reed? 2-2, 47 relief appearances, 47 innings, 4.16 ERA.
Antonio Santos, just acquired. 22 games, 22 IP, 4.51 ERA.
Sum and total, I do not see anything remotely close to deGrom/Loup ERAs in the above bunch, so the Mets have a lot more work to do in the pitching department to be ready for 2022.
Billy Eppler, my guess is, will do what needs to be done to make Mets fan exuberance go right off the charts.
6 comments:
Remember's Rankings of the above pitchers:
(1) Trevor Williams. He is my dark horse pick for being a valuable piece of the 2022 Mets, perhaps pitching as well and taking the role of Seth Lugo.
(2) Not on your list, but Drew Smith.
(3) Sean Reid-Foley. He showed glimpses of a decent MLB pitcher in 2022
(4) Yennsy Diaz: I'll take the under on the 4.62 ERA. If used correctly, he can become valuable.
(5) Josh Walker. I don't know whether he'll end up getting much work in NYC this year (I hope not - if he does it means there are a bunch of injury issues),
but a solid year in Syracuse will throw him into the picture for 2023
(6) Adam Oller. Others are higher on this guy. I just find it hard to get excited about guys his age with his history. Yeah, deGrom was a late bloomer too.
(7) Jake Reed. Who knows
(8) Butto - not a chance he smells the bigs this year
(9) Szcapuki - unfortunately, I just feel like he is a 'stick a fork in it' story at this point.
(10) Santos - the next McWilliams
Remember 1969, lots of good views.
And I did not have Smith on the list because I see him as above the rest
This is what happens when you let analytics run wild. Personally, I don't think the technology is at a point where it can anticipate the differences between a minor league environment (where most of these stats came from) to a major league environment. So it is just "fun" speculation and it should end there. The danger comes from people in a decision making capacity doing too much with this data. It was eye-opening to read the Chili Davis account of what was going on in Metsland before he was fired.
As always, there has to be a mix of trained eye, baseball savvy, and informed analytics that goes into making the call on who plays, how a lineup goes together, who gets called up, ... That's why the search for a manager is so important right now. The right person in that job and the supporting cast can influence the success of all the guys Tom mentioned and some others that he didn't.
Choose well, Mr. Eppler.
Paul, good points. Along that line of thinking I am pulling for Oller as a fan. I like out-of-nowhere underdogs. Think RA Dickey for one example. Jeff McNeil for another.
Me thinks the cupboard looks bare. Let’s hope they sign a few more pitchers?
Alex, pitchers will be added. My article tomorrow touches on why.
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