I love bounce-back Squirrels - how about you?
Jeff McNeil had a bad year.
I'm sure he'd be the first to agree on that.
He's not alone.
Lots of Mets players had bad seasons in 2021....in fact, most of them did...an amalgam of sub-par performance and injuries.
Lots of frenzied Facebook Mets fans want to move on from McNeil. They tended to be pro-Lindor and pro-Baez, absent of any commentary on the potential downside risk to the Mets to tie up 2 guys to 16 total, very pricey, contractual years.
These FB fans seem to tend to forget that in 2018, McNeil first had 50 extra base hits in 339 minor league at bats in 2018, hitting .342 with a .619 slugging %, and then got called up by the Mets and hit .329 in 229 at bats the rest of the season, good for 6th in ROY voting.
That's .329, folks, with a .381 OBP. By comparison, that's roughly 100 points higher than Francisco Lindor's way-off-normal .230 in 2021. What a 2018 for Jeff.
Then, in 2019, McNeil the Mighty Squirrel hit .318 with a .531 slugging % and .384 OBP. He had the sixth highest average in the majors, and the 22nd highest OPS. He was...a Mets star. And an All Star. What a 2019 for McNeil.
Then, in weird, COVID-shortened 2020, he did not hit well in the beginning of the short season, but then caught fire, and finished at .311 in 52 games with a .383 OBP. A .356/.431/.567 slash line after August that year got him to his 2020 .311 average.
A full season and parts of two others with an OBP close to .385. That's .385, let me remind you, before you read the next sentence. In 2021, a .385 OBP would be the 6th best in baseball among all qualifying hitters. That's 6th best, folks. Out of 132 MLB players with sufficient at bats to be deemed "qualified".
Then, in 2021, he (I believe temporarily) lost his Mighty Squirrel super-powers and proved he was human. He hit poorly in the unusually frigid, cancellation-filled early portion of 2021, then started to hit, then got hurt and missed several weeks, then returned but was nagged by injuries he played through. He was just never right in 2021.
He slipped significantly to .251 with a .319 OBP.
His robust .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in his first 3 seasons slipped badly to .280 in 2021. He was out of sync all season and reportedly hit in some bad luck, to boot.
Conclusion? "Get rid of him, of course. Obvious."
Well, Facebook person, NOT of course. NOT obvious.
Me? I'd definitely keep him.
After all, Squirrels may fall - but they know how to CLIMB.
He's still inexpensive, too - and why the heck can't he hit .300 again? Players often follow off years with ON years.
I think of 2 former Twins of yore, neither of whom I think McNeil is as good as, but I think he is a lot more likely to hit closer to them in 2022 than he is to hit again like he did in 2021.
Rod Carew is one of them. In the great Rod's first two seasons, he hit .292 and .273. Then he took off and hit .332 and .366 the next two years. Then he slipped 59 points to .307 the following year, a pretty big "slump", relatively speaking, with "just" a .356 OBP. But then, after his "down" season, he returned to true Carew form, hitting .318, .350, .364, and 359 over the next 4 years. Keep in mind that Sir Rodney also only hit 9 total HRs in the first 3 of those latter 4 seasons.
Fellow Twin Tony Oliva was a fine combo of power and average. After hitting .323 and .321 in 1964 and 1965, he actually hit just .289 in 1967 and 1968, but then hit .309, .325, and .337 the following 3 seasons.
McNeil so far in his career, even with his bad year of 2021, has an MLB average of .299 and an OBP of .364.
Oliva? Career .304, with a .353 OBP.
Maybe you drool instead over a current day hitter like Freddie Friggin' Freeman. His career stats are .295 (BA) and .384 (OBP), so McNeil, so far, is competitive with that.
Very good hitters hit very good, pardon my English.
It's very good to know that very good hitters hit very good.
Me?
I think McNeil will hit AT A MINIMUM hit what Fangraphs estimates he will hit in 2022:
.278/.344/.425.
Which is much better than 2021. And which is good, period.
Actually the median team in baseball hitting against AL teams (i.e,. without a DH, so inclusive of real hitters only) had a slash of .242/.319/.410. So McNeil projects to hit significantly above league average for hitters.
Last time I checked, above average hitters = above average wins.
And me personally?
I think he'll hit an even better .300/.370/.440 in 2022.
If he hits like that, it works for me, how about for you?
Based on that projection, I'm keeping McNeil for another season. But I'm not Buck and Billy, it's their call.
Just like Carew and Oliva did, McNeil may not only follow up his off year with a strong year, he may have strong rebound results for multiple years.
Don't make the mistake the Mets did in letting strong hitting Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy go. Keep McNeil and watch him rebound in 2022, like Dennis Rodman - without the tattoos and piercings, of course. And I don't expect McNeil to visit North Korea like Dennis did, either.
"After all", I ask myself, "why can't a 2018 thru 2020 .319 hitting machine like McNeil be able to hit .300 again?"
Full disclosure:
I have been a fan of McNeil since he first hit .300 in the minors.
He was my first interview, while he was in AA, and I came away a believer.
That said, I do not work for, nor get compensated by, Mr. McNeil.
This is an unpaid, non-political announcement.
Whither goes Jeff McNeil in 2022?
Into the Mets' line up, a lot - if they're smart.
His early 2021 dust-up with Lindor? It was a tough time for Lindor. His hitting was sub-glacial and the boos were flying.
Both are adults, I expect they'll act the part in a Showalter regime. It's all about the W's. Both players know that.
By 2023, neophytes Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio will be banging on the door for significant MLB playing time, especially Baty and Vientos, and it may be time to re-evaluate keeping or trading the increasingly expensive McNeil then. Kids who are ripe and ready to become MLB stars gotta play.
For now, though, it's a no-brainer for me.
Keep the Mighty Squirrel.
14 comments:
The bigger question is what could McNeil net on the trade market? If he brought a number three starting pitcher, wouldn't you be tempted? If all he could manage was a well worn middle reliever then I wouldn't do it.
I'm so torn on this issue. Until last season he was my favorite Met. I was dreaming of him being this great hitter, a perennial all-star, in a Met uniform no less. Then 2021 happened and it looks like he turned into a Greg Jeffries clone. Crying and throwing things every time he made an out.
I don't know what actually happened between him and Lindor but I will say it was extremely disappointing to hear he wasn't listening to the coaching staff regarding his positioning. He also totally changed his approach to hitting. How times last year did you have to watch him take a low inside pitch and hit a little nubber back to the pitcher or second base (at least 100 times).
I feel if he doesn't revert back to pre 2021 form he's a goner and he's of no use to the Mets. I agree with Reese on this. I would trade him only if I got a great deal, if not I'd keep him.
Tom, I also totally agree with you on this subject. I believe he will rebound and have a solid year. But he seriously needs to grow up and stop wining after every at bat...that nonsense really grows old fast. I really do hope he reverts back to pre 2021, I loved watching him play.
McNeil and Cano,at least one will hit,maybe both.DH and 2B are covered.
McNeil knows he had a terrible year. He knows his future income stream will be dramatically hammered if he does not have a bounce back year. I therefore think he fixes all that went poorly in 2022.
They traded too-intense Steve Matz a year ago, and look what he did. I think McNeil is better than Matz.
That said, Reese, if there was a legit, healthy # 3 pitcher to be had for Jeff, I'd consider it if the contracts made sense.
The attempt to change his launch angle last yr just about ruined one the best pure hitters in the game
Stop that and let him return to his slap hitting to all fields.
Also, work on choking up and last minute redirection of stance to punch hits to opposite fields
Joe P, I agree on reducing whining. I think a lot of that will occur when he bounces back, but it should happen regardless.
I can relate, though. I'd be just like him :)
Alex, I am very concerned as to whether Cano can play 2nd, a position that a soon-to-turn 40 year old (May 3) could find very challenging, to put it charitably. Kind of uncharted territory.
Mack, correct. He knows what he did right to get here in 2018 and 2019. He just needs to go back to that. He was smart enough to do it once, I'd be shocked if he cannot go back to his successful formula.
I'm a big McNeil fan as well and don't want to see a 3.0 version of the Murphy / Turner situation happen here.
I think McNeil should get 500 - 600 at bats moving around the diamond / DH role to keep the other starters fresh or to play match ups this coming year.
I would have to listen on trades for an impact SP but baring that he can bring huge value to this team, both with his bat and his versatility. Starters get hurt during the year and having a guy like Jeff McNeil who can play LF, RF, 3B, 2B as a regular is important.
At the end of the day if you told me Mets would keep/start Mcneil at his minimum wage salary and used that Bryant level saved money on a pitcher I would say sign me up. If you could find a taker willing to give you an innings eating arm I might go for that too. To me he certainly has more overall value than a JD rounding put roster one way or another.
McNiel needs to remain on the team Depth and flexibility is the key to winning and winning big. Guys like Chris taylor are the key to winning in the post season,, Mcniel could be that for us...
The return if we trade for him should be no doubt a move we cant say no to.
After hearing from Dan, Eddie, and Ernest, the consensus is McNeil stays.
I say he stays - and hits .300. It's what he does. He can be our Pete Rose.
With the final verdict in...he stays. I can get on board with that.
Mack: you are 100% correct. The launch angle change in his swing basically destroyed his season. I didn't actually think of him as a singles hitter. In 2019 he was spraying line drive doubles all over the field. That's the McNeil we need.
Tom: I agree I think he will bounce back.
Reese: again I agree with you. If you overwhelm me in a trade I would consider it.
Now Uncle Stevie, I want one more starting pitcher, 2 relievers, and a bench bat under my Christmas tree and we are ready.
Happy Holidays all.
As many of you know I've been a big Jeff McNeil fan. Thought he was misused by the prior administration. In at least one of my posts last year i felt he was treated as an outsider. Think he will do well with an improved lineup and a new regime.
Post a Comment