Paul Articulates – Close the deal

As the New York Mets close in on a division championship, leading the Braves by 1.5 games with 8 to play and both teams having clinched at least a wild card, it is worth a peak into how the upcoming weeks may play out.

There are four National League teams that are locks for the playoffs (Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Cardinals) and three (Padres, Phillies, Brewers) fighting for the last two spots.  The Dodgers and the NL East winner will start with a bye while the other four teams will face off in three game series hosted by the team with the best seed.  That will be followed by a five game NLDS and then a seven game NLCS series to qualify a team for the World Series.  

The numbers 1, 2, and 3 seeds are the division winners so the NL East runner-up will become a 4 seed even if they finish with a better record than the Cardinals. The 4 seed is then on a collision course with the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Against the seven teams contending for the six playoff spots, the Mets have had very favorable results.  They have accumulated a record of 38 wins and 23 losses, outscoring their opponents 277-253 with three games left to play against the Braves.

The Mets are 9-7 against the Braves so far

The Mets were 4-3 against the Dodgers this season

The Mets were 5-2 against the Cardinals this season

The Mets were 2-4 against the Padres this season

The Mets were 14-5 against the Phillies this season

The Mets had a winning record against potential playoff teams in every month this year except July when they only played the three game series in San Diego, losing two of three.

All this amounts to nothing but a confidence builder heading into October, as you win in the playoffs or go home.  So what are the chances for the Mets to win in October (and November)?  They have proven that they can play against the good teams from the aforementioned statistics.  They have a solid pitching rotation with two of the best pitchers in baseball that can be a decisive advantage in a playoff series whether it is 3, 5, or 7 games.  They have a fairly healthy roster, with fewer injury issues than most of their competition.  The only thing they don’t have right now that is necessary for a run at the title is momentum – they have continued to win the games necessary to stay ahead of the Braves, but have also lost some head-scratching games against bad teams.  

Here’s how their NL competitors are stacking up:

The Dodgers continue to win a lot of games, winning six series in September, but only sweeping one (Giants).  Pitchers Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Daniel Hudson, and Blake Trienen are on the injured list while their starting position players are all fairly healthy.  Probably the biggest piece of adversity they face is the recent demotion of Craig Kimbrel from closer.  He has been ineffective in that role and manager Dave Roberts has chosen to use a “closer by committee“approach.  That’s pretty dangerous going into the tight games that playoff series typically feature.

The Braves are showing some cracks, as starter and rookie of the year candidate Spencer Strider has now been placed on the 15-day IL with oblique soreness.  Pitcher Mike Sikora ended his comeback from a long bout with injuries when he was recently shut down for the season.  Meanwhile on the field, Ozzie Albies broke his finger one day after coming off the IL and he is now down for at least the regular season.  Ronald Acuna has been missing games recently, as he may have been activated too soon from a variety of lower body injuries.  Matt Olsen is in a prolonged slump, Kelly Jansen is blowing saves, and the incredibly hot Braves seem to be cooling off recently.

The Cardinals have had a solid month of September, expanding their lead in the NL Central division, but against potential playoff teams, they have gone 3-5 this month.  St. Louis may be the healthiest of the playoff teams, as only lightly-used pitcher Drew VerHagen and Left Fielder Tyler O’Neill are on the injured list.  We all know about the resurgence of Albert Pujols in the second half, and the pitching seems to be very solid.  The Cards do not have a closer problem like the Dodgers and Braves, as Ryan Helsey is sporting a 1.32 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.

The Padres are in good shape to make the playoffs although they have probably been the biggest MLB disappointment in the 2nd half as they continued to load up on star caliber players at the trade deadline but could not translate that into a winning surge.  The Padres are 21 games behind the Dodgers in the West and are clinging to the second wild card by 1½ games over the Phillies.  One of the big trades back in July sent the Padres closer Taylor Rogers to the Brewers for Josh Hader.  Hader had been a dominant left-handed pitcher for years, but upon arriving in San Diego he failed to perform, losing his closer role.  Meanwhile, Juan Soto has not played like the generational player that everyone coveted and acquisitions Josh Bell and Brandon Drury also have not impressed.  They still have a dangerous team, but just can’t find the mojo.

The Phillies are up and down lately, struggling to find some momentum.  They are 10-11 in September, but that included a five-game winning streak and a five-game losing streak.  The Mets dominated the season series against the Phillies 14-5, but most of those games were in the first half of the year.  Bryce Harper is back in the lineup and most of the lineup is healthy with the exception of their bullpen.  Brad Hand and Corey Knebel are both on the IL.

The Brewers are 13-11 in September and are also struggling to find some momentum, though they have recently recovered against the Reds.  They have a losing record against all of the potential playoff teams, and if they didn’t have six of their remaining eight games against the Marlins and D-Backs, I would write them off as a playoff team.

So here we are in the stretch run, with 8 games to go and the Mets with a slight lead against the suddenly vulnerable Braves.  Their three games series this coming weekend will be a pivotal match-up as it will likely determine who gets a first-round bye and who has to face the Dodgers and who faces the Cardinals.  The Mets seem to have many factors in their favors when considering team health, starting pitching, and their closer.  However, history has shown that the team that makes it through the playoff gauntlet and succeeds in the World Series is often the team that is “on a run”.  The Mets can build that kind of momentum with some big wins in Atlanta coming up so they are going to have to put their best forward.  Let’s go Mets!