Paul Articulates – Mets biggest rival may not be all you think

Mets fans have that worried look again.  With 14 games remaining in the season, the Mets are leading the Braves by a mere 1 game, tied in the loss column in a white-knuckle finish to the season.  Both teams are on pace to win 100+ games, the Mets have a softer remaining schedule, but it still seems like the Braves are in the passing lane and we can’t roll fast enough.

We are worried that Scherzer went back on the IL with more discomfort on his left side.  We are worried that Marte fractured a finger and isn’t strengthening the top of the lineup when Nimmo is slumping and Lindor has slowed down a bit.  Where is Drew Smith?  Where is Tylor Megill?  Is there any DH that can get a few hits?

I’m not here to whine about the above issues – there are enough people on social media to overreact to every bit of adversity that confronts this very good team.  I want everyone to know that misery loves company.  Even though those streaking Braves have won 68 of 96 games (.708) since June 1st, the grass in Atlanta is not necessarily greener than it is in New York.  There are several issues looming over the franchise that could affect their final 16 games and playoff run.  Let’s explore.

1) Kelly Jansen is struggling in the closer role.  He has blown several saves, including one in Seattle that thwarted a huge Atlanta comeback that could have stolen the series against the Mariners.  In fact, in Jansen’s past seven appearances, he has an 11.12 ERA with three homers and seven earned runs allowed. He’s blown three saves in that span and appears to be getting worse with each appearance.  He has saved only 82.9% of his opportunities, which is not in the top 10 of closers with 20 or more saves.  (By the way, Craig Kimbrel is at 81.5%) That affects the confidence of the entire team late in close games, especially in important series like the upcoming 3-game set with the Mets and then the playoffs.

2) Atlanta’s starting pitching has been great this year, and the top of their staff includes two very young pitchers, Spencer Strider and Kyle Wright.  Wright has thrown 164 innings so far this year, which is already more than he has ever thrown in his professional career, topping last year’s 143 (137 of those were in AAA).  Strider meanwhile is 131 innings into the season, having never thrown more than 96 innings (MiLB and MLB combined) in any season.  So although one might think pitchers can throw 200 innings before wearing out, pushing well beyond prior limits can have an adverse effect, and it shows up suddenly.  We’re not hoping for injury here, just saying that Atlanta’s luck can run out just when they need their top 3 starters.

3) Ozzie Albies came back from his foot surgery only to break a finger on his throwing hand Saturday sliding into second base.  This will cost him the rest of the regular season.  When he came back, Vaughn Grissom got pushed aside even though his hot streak while filling in did a lot to help the Braves win.  Can he summon the magic again?

4) Matt Olsen has gone 4 for his last 65 in a prolonged slump.  Once a powerful home-run engine that spurred the Braves’ winning streak in August, he has now gone cold with no multi-hit games since August 27, dropping his batting average to .234 while the guy he replaced (Freddie Freeman) leads MLB with a .331 average.  

I could go on, but suffice it to say that every team struggles with similar issues during a long 162-game season.  The Braves have a few more cracks these days than the Mets with closer issues, star players out, and question marks surrounding the ability of their staff to continue to perform.  Yes, they are still bashing home runs more than anyone else in the National League, but they are getting huge contributions by a couple rookies (Harris and Grissom) that might perform a little differently under the pressure of the pennant chase.   I just think that there is a good deal of risk that their remarkable run is not going to last much longer.