Both the Mets and the Braves had an off day yesterday (9/29) as they head into a battle tonight that has major playoff implications. If you are anything like me, you may have woken up in a panic several times last night going over playoff scenarios. That said, let’s break down how each game could impact the Mets and their quest for their first NL East title since 2015. As it stands today, the Mets are 98-58, while the Braves sit 1 game back at 97-59.
Scenario 1: The Mets Sweep (3-0)
- Let’s start with the fun one. If the Mets sweep the Braves this weekend the division is clinched. The Mets are currently 1 game up on the Braves for the division lead. However, they have the tie breaker so you can think of it as a 1.5 game lead. Should the Mets take all 3 games this weekend that puts the Mets up 4 games with 3 left to play. In this scenario, the Braves could go sweep the Marlins and the Mets could get swept by Washington and the Mets still win the division. Buck and the boys are giving it their all to make that happen this weekend putting out Degrom, Max, and Bassitt.
Scenario 2: The Mets win the series (2-1)
- Taking 2 of 3 from the Braves puts the Mets in a very favorable position to win the division. Winning 2 of 3 puts the Mets at 100-59 (I know, 100 wins right?!) and the Braves at 98-61. The Mets would come out of the series with a 2 game lead on the division with 3 left to play. In this scenario, the Mets would just have to avoid the sweep in Washington to win the division. If the Braves sweep Miami and the Mets take 1 in Washington, they would end the season with the same record which the Mets have the tiebreaker for (tiebreaker explained below).
Scenario 3: The Mets lose the series (1-2)
- Taking only 1 of 3 from the Braves would be disappointing to say the least. This situation is not quite doomsday. Taking 1 game is almost essential to the Mets winning the division because it clinches the season series at 10-9. Only taking 1 game puts the Mets in a tie record wise going into the series with Washington. In all these scenarios, but especially this one, losing 2 of 3 truly puts the Mets destiny in their own hands. If both the Mets and Braves go on to have the same record versus their respective opponents next week the Mets would clinch the division on the tie breaker.
Scenario 4: The Mets get swept (0-3)
- This is truly the doomsday scenario I mentioned earlier. Getting swept by Atlanta would put the Mets down 2 games heading into the series with Washington. This means the division is, for the first time, out of the Mets control as the Marlins would have to play spoiler and beat the Braves at least 2 of 3. Should the Braves get swept, the Mets have to go 2-1 vs. Washington. If the Braves go 1-2 the Mets would have to sweep.
*As an interesting side note*: Buck pushing up Degrom’s start to tonight puts him on regular rest to start the last game of the season next Wednesday should that game matter. This is worth noting as this would take Jake out of the Wild Card series entirely should the Mets be in it.
Maybe I am getting greedy but as far as this team has come this year, I will be extremely disappointed if they can’t get over this last hump and win the division. It’s theirs to win or lose. LFGM.
9 comments:
Nice synopsis, JD. I know it will be a tough series, but these scenarios say that the Mets can maintain control of their destiny by doing what they have done well this year - win. With their three top pitchers in line, they are positioned as well as they can be. Just wish they had Marte.
What a great first post
I choose to believe deGrom the ace comes through and I think between Max and Bassit the Mets can get the 2 wins and get that last win needed in final series for sure.
Welcome, JD. NICE JOB. Yes, time to clear that hump. It’s just a hump.
That’s the clarity I needed. Hope Jake brings his A game!
The Mets are putting their best pitchers on the line in this series. If they don't somehow come out at least 2-1, it's their own fault.
We played all season for this so it's time for the big boys to be BIG BOYS and put this thing to rest LGM!!!
Good summary of the chances...nice article. It is nice to have the top three pitchers going in this series, but the bats have to do the job to get the wins.
AMEN. Fantastic synopsis. You sound like you’ve been writing about the Mets for ESPN for a decade. Thanks for breaking it down. I don’t know if you have sisters or brothers, or a cousin with a dog, or a dad with a sea-do, or cousins across the country who are yankee fans, but they would all be proud of this article. LGM!
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