Tom Brennan - Don't Prematurely Judge a Player

 

Recent walk off: surging Matt Rudick’s RBI base hit was a cause for celebration

Often times, the past is not a prologue to the future.

Some guys quickly soar, then crash.  

Other guys scuffle a lot, then, without hint nor warning, they soar.

The latter is the case with Arlison Rodriguez, a 19 year old, 6'5" lefty hurler for the DSL Mets.  Not to be confused with former Mets minors slugger Aderlin Rodriguez.

In hist first 11 games this year, through July 19, he threw 16.2 innings and allowed 25 hits and walked 9.  

Those are not terrific results.  "Not by no means."

Then, they held him out of games for 9 days.  

Then he returned to the bump.

Then he did this:

10 innings, 4 hits, no walks, 1 earned run, 15 Ks.

I don't know anything about the fella besides that.

You just need to realize: 

You can't jump to conclusions.

While on the topic, one other DSL pitcher seemed to have enormous control issues.

Rodolfo Garrido (middle name Junior, as Junior Tilien just pointed out) is a 17 year old who's thrown 40 innings, fanning 46, but walking 28 and (ouch!) hitting 11 batters, with 8 wild pitches.  

SHAKE IT, SHAKE IT, WILD THING!

Yet, he finished at 3-3 with a 4.20 ERA.  Huh?

I told you, didn't I???  

Don't jump to conclusions.  

His last 3 outings, no doubt after someone told him where the plate and strike zone was, and to actually throw it there?

14 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 15K's.  

NICE!

Just who does he think he is, Mighty Mad Max Scherzer?

Of course, there are others who folks may have prematurely judged, like Matt Rudick, who in his first full pro season, in Brooklyn, was hitting .198 on August 9th.  If you judged him prematurely, you probably concluded that he was clearly terrible.  Because .198 ain't good, I get it.

Then Rudick went on an absolute tear and jumped to .240 for the year in Brooklyn, with a .368 OBP.  (The Mets' resident OBP genius, Brandon Nimmo, is at .356 OBP - against much tougher competition, of course - thru Friday, just for perspective). 

And as of yet, no Rudick pro errors - he figures, "why make an error unless you have to, right?"   (By comparison, SS Ronny Mauricio, at a much more error-generating position, mind you, has 69 errors in his first 300 games at SS).  Rudick in 2022 has a 83% steal success rate, too - so he is not only a flawless defender, he is a master thief.  

He's not so terrible at all, unless you pre-judged him and got stuck in your "the guy's hitting .198, he stinks" opinion.  Rudick is actually quite good, if you ask me, and no doubt is ticketed to AA in 2023.

Of course, I am not pre-judging Ronny Mauricio either.  Sure, you, Mr. Skeptic, say that he needs to up his BB rate, and sure he needs to really cut back on his error rate.  

But the 21 year old in AA, in his first 109 games this year, has 24 doubles, 24 HRs and 79 RBIs.  Over a full 162 games, that is 35 doubles, 35 HRs, and 118 RBIs.  He hasn't had consistent line up protection, what with the Baty and Alvarez promotions weakening the line up, but he has put up big power numbers anyway.  

Oh, and he right now is still a month or two younger than Prodigiously Pounding Pete Alonso was when he made his pro debut in Brooklyn rookie ball in 2016, so perspective is important. 

Or Brooklyn's Jose Peroza, sad owner on July 28 of a paltry .215/.296/.327 slash line.  Story has it (OK, it's my made-up story, but go with me here) that he woke up on July 29 and thought to himself, "folks, including Jackie Gleason, are pre-judging me as a bum, so why don't I just go on a 31 game on base streak and prove them wrong?"

Boy a little thing like a 31 game on base streak does wonders for your stats.  On September 2, he had ascended to .260/.348/.385, and was climbing fast.  

As of September 13, he was 73 for his last 210 at bats (.348).  Who hits .348 in Brooklyn for any stretch of time? Ans. Jose.

He also despises errors, and thinks, no doubt, that he is a 6'1", 220 version of Rey Ordonez.  Don't think so?? Just 7 errors in over 110 games at 2B, 3B, and SS?  I'd say he's a Rey of Sunshine on defense.

Heck, I can recall as I was touting a minor leaguer named Jeff McNeil and that some felt McNeil was too old to be a prospect.  Maybe it was just an aversion to squirrels, I dunno. Allergic to chestnuts, maybe.   I guess that they had that "non-prospect" thingie all wrong. Give me 10 prospects like Jeff McNeil.

Wyatt Young?  On base 4 times last night.  One look at him, and he is a little, unimposing 5'7" guy, not an imposing hulk like Aaron Judge.  But somehow, in his first full season, in AA and AAA, Young has been on base 194 times (via hit, BB, and HBP) in 118 games.   Huh.  I guess he's not so little after all. Because no other Mets minor leaguer has come close to that this year.

Morale of the story?  

Correct, my friend, the morale is, don't jump to conclusions.

If you feel you must jump, may I suggest you try a flying leap?

It hurts when you crash-land, but you may learn from it.

Instead, stay safe...how?

Your only jumping should be to jump, daily, to read each and every Macks Mets article.  You'll get the jump on all the other supposed baseball savants who think they can get by without a daily dose of Vitamin Mack, the one essential vitamin.  

ON THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL:

Mets fans were positively euphoric when Ruf, Naquin and Vogelbach showed up in town, bats a-blazing.

But MLB's stat pages show a guy's production over his last 15 games.  

Vogelbach through Monday in his last 15? 5 for 39 (.128).  

Naquin? 8 for 34 (.235).  

Ruf? 1 for 30 (.033).  

So the 3 hombres, over their respective "last 15" thru Monday, are a combined 14 for 103 (.136) with 7 RBIs.  Walks?  Over the last 15, 15 walks, 8 by Vogelbach, who them gets to show the world his blazing speed on the basepaths.

Did we judge them too soon and vote "YES!", based on their early Mets successes?  Perhaps.  And perhaps we pre-judged them.

But guys can bounce back, and maybe they will too (assuming Ruf is even still here as this publishes).  

The previously scuffling Eduardo Escobar's last 15 through Monday? .420/.445/.800.  Wow.

But RBI Machine Pete Alonso in his last 15? .224 with 5 RBIs through Monday.  Hopefully, he is not Petering out.  

In fact, his last 30, he was hitting .213 with just 13 RBIs.  

Is this one of those movies where Escobar and Alonso switched bodies?  Just asking for a friend.

METS CHOKING! 

HEIMLICH MANUEVER URGENTLY NEEDED!

CUBS GET REVENGE FOR 1969.

David “Szapucki” Peterson was awful!

And maybe one whiff of Vientos is one whiff too many.

AND FINALLY:

A Jake Mangum Question just for you:

The AAA outfielder was hurt and missed time this year, but he is a switch hitter with good speed and strong defense, and he is hitting .328 against lefties and .330 in 91 AAA at bats, and .330 after April overall.  Should the Mets dump Darin Ruf and call up Mangum in his place?