Reese Kaplan -- You May Not Recognize the 2023 Mets Roster

With eight games left on the schedule the Mets need to decide what went right and what went wrong during this 2022 season.  Obviously the starting pitching, when healthy, was quite good.  Keeping them healthy is not really an issue as it may turn out that the existing rotation is gone with the close of the season.  It appears that the potential impending free agent opportunity for pitchers with good stat sheets on a winning ballclub means a payday potential that might indeed be too tempting for players to ignore.

Then there is the bullpen which has been mostly horrific due to injuries and slow recoveries.  Look down the list past Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino and it appears that there will be quite a few players that contributed to the relief pitching malaise.  Some of them won't be here at year's end, some shouldn't be here and some may be worth retaining.  

How would the Mets have fared without Joely Rodriguez, Tommy Hunter, Chasen Shreve, Adonis Medina, Trevor May, Mychal Givens and others?  Some arms are incompletes like Drew Smith, Tylor Megill and David Peterson.  Some are sure free agents like starter wannabe Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams. 

Take a look at the curious case of Adam Ottavino.  Overall he has had a terrific season for the Mets (despite his recent hiccup along with all other pitchers against Oakland).  He is 5-3 with a 2.10 ERA over 61 games with a 1.000 WHIP and nearly a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At just $4 million for his age 36 season, the Mets couldn't have asked for more.  The question becomes how much is he worth at age 37 and onward?  

I could surely see him getting the kind of contract Trevor May commanded for his two injury-plagued and mediocre years in Queens.  With the many others slated to leave it's better to hang onto someone who proved what he can do in New York.  Seth Lugo earned just $2.925 million for his efforts so surely at age 32 he's going to try to cash in big time.  

On the offensive side of the ledger you have to be very happy with what production you received from Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil.  Mark Canha's power was down but the RBIs were there and the batting average is up.  He's a keeper.  Eduardo Escobar mostly struggled but should finish the year in the 20+ HR range with 65+ RBIs.  It's under what they wanted but the hot late season surge suggests that he might be decent value in 2023.  The catchers are still an offensive mess and Francisco Alvarez is not yet ready for a full time gig.  

The player the Mets really need to analyze big time is Brandon Nimmo.  Yes, he's an on-base machine and for the 2022 season he's been uncharacteristically healthy, appearing in 143 of 153 games with power and RBIs.  The defense has taken a big step forward from barely adequate to solid.  The question is how much is he worth?  

Right now he's earning $7 million as he approaches free agency in his age 30 season.  For comparison's sake, Starling Marte was signed at age 33 for $15.75 million in year one of a four year deal that pays $20.75 million for each of the next three seasons.  He averages 5.0 WAR per 162 games whereas Nimmo is at 4.4 over the same metric.  

That would suggest Nimmo is worth perhaps $15 million per season, below what Marte makes despite being younger.  Injury history should also suppress his value.  He may simply look to sell himself to the highest bidder, in which case the Mets need to find a new player to stand between Canha and Marte.  

The other position that's hard to read is DH.  Needless to say, the Mets did not get out of Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf the aggregate performance they expected.  Brett Baty obviously started off with a bang over the fence in his first AB then struggled before getting hurt.  

Mark Vientos struggled but of late seems to be slowly adjusting to a higher level of pitching.  It is indeed possible the Mets might want to obtain a high value DH for the future going forward which would render some of their younger players as trade bait.  

On the whole, you have to be happy with what the Mets accomplished on the field, enjoying a postseason berth for the first time since 2016.  Bringing in Buck Showalter and spending Steve Cohen's money has helped deliver competitiveness when the club was mostly sleepwalking through the past several seasons.  Do expect a lot of new faces for 2023 out of roster construction necessity.