THE METS' ARNOLD CAN'T SHAKE THE "T2" BRAVES - OR CAN HE?
STUNNING LATE GAME METS RALLY FROM 4-0:
SEPT. PLAYER OF THE UNIVERSE EDUARDO ESCOBAR DRIVES IN ALL 5 RUNS IN 5-4 WIN.
8 HRs, 24 RBIs, .330 FOR THE E.E. IN SEPT!
METS PITCHERS FAN 18 MARLINS!
BRAVES LOSE TO NATS! METS 1 GAME UP!
Now, catch your breath, on to rest of article.
LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION:
Cleveland, with ex-Mets Amed Rosario and (.303) Andres Gimenez, clinched their division on Sunday.
It is amazing how a team's division can make-or-break them. The Guardians are in the very weak AL Central, and for this final year, each team plays 45% of its games "in-division". Thru Sunday, Cleveland was 16 over .500 in their division, just 3 over .500 outside of it. If they were in the NL East, my guess is they'd be 4th, behind Philly.
Still, they've made it in, and congratulations to them. Being the 3rd seed, they do not get a bye, and presumably play the weakest wild card team.
Next year, the "crappy division opponent advantage" will be greatly reduced by much-needed rescheduling improvements. 45% of games in division will become just 30%. To succeed, the Guardians will have to get better, or this will be a one-season visit to the playoffs.
TERMINATOR T2:
I loved the movie Terminator 2 when it came out; the good guys just couldn't shake that T2 machine, no matter what they did. Finally at the end, the good guys prevailed. As the Mets did last night to go 1 up.
That Terminator flick feels like the Mets and Braves. The Braves keep getting derailed, only to relentlessly come right back. And, sadly, Jake deGrom has been no Sarah Connor. Sarah got it done.
Jake has his big chance to have the final say this weekend by proving he is GOAT and the Braves belong in a moat. To me, Max is GOAT, but that is just how I see it. Jake has too much lamb in him to be a GOAT - more on that below.
PLAYOFFS START THIS FRIDAY:
The rules state that the playoffs start after 162 games. This Mets-Braves weekend, though, is every bit as much "the playoffs" as are the the playoffs themselves.
It is also Ali v. Frazier. Mets are Ali, just depends which of the A v. F fights happens here. Will Ali win...or get pummeled by relentless Joe.
(Perhaps they start tonight, instead, to avoid devastating Hurricane Ian?)
"MANY" CAN SOMETIMES BE ONE TOO MANY:
As disappointed as I am in Jake's failure to clutch the throat of severely sub-.500 teams and win those 4 starts this month (instead, just 1-2, and a ND), the Mets have been badly impacted by setting a dubious record this season:
HIT BY PITCH
One of them, in particular, was one too many:
Starling Marte and his broken-by-HBP finger. You see, Starling was a total rock star after a cold April, hitting .307 from May 1 on. He made the Mets lineup formidable. Then the HBP and fractured digit.
I blame Buck - and Jake. This Mets team should have had their pitchers retaliate forcefully, to let other teams know our hitters are not pinatas or pin cushions. Also on Jake again (no, this is not Pick On Jake Day, stay with me here). Why?
Well, Gentleman Jake has hit NO batters in 58.1 IP. Why not? He gave up two big HRs recently - are hitters too comfortable settling into the box against Jake, knowing he just doesn't plunk? Just 21 plunks in 1320 career innings, which, broken out over his many seasons, works out to be about 3 per full season.
Max in 2022 has nailed 11 in 139.2 IP, Bassitt 12 in 179 IP. Walker? Just 6 in 148 IP (not enough HBP either, pal).
Meanwhile, the Mets have been nailed once every 12.5 at bats, an astonishing rate. Problem with HBP is...bones can break. So you need your pitchers to send statements as frequently as needed...you put our great hitters in jeopardy, intentional or not, we will reply in kind.
And that is heavily on Buck. Retaliation is essential to sending a message on HBP. Mets' pitchers are -40 (with 70 HBP) - not enough retaliation.
And NONE from Gentleman Jake, who leaves the dirty work to others.
It cost them Marte - the Star. Just when he was hot and vitally needed for the stretch run. They were extremely fortunate that it did not cost them Alonso and Francisco (you know, the guys with 234 RBIs, which in most Mets seasons in their history took them 4 or 5 guys to compile), when they were hit in their respective noggins.
No biggie, though - the Marte in-game alternatives?
A whole lot more of Ruf and Naquin than we should have needed to see.
A big deals. And clearly less ability to generate enough offense to win.
The result? Braves caught up to our heavily plunked guys.
Mets? Plunked 110 times.
Rangers just 46 times, Dodgers 53 times, Braves 63 times.
Ouch! HBP Matters.
By the way, career-wise?
Gentleman Jake has plunked a scant 21 batters in 1,320 career innings - one every 63 IP. Max has twice the career innings (2,676) and has nailed 107 hitters (2.5X Jake's rate - i.e., 5 times as many HBPs in just twice as many innings).
Max, I surmise, shrewdly knows it worked for big-winning intimidators like Don Drysdale and Bob Gibson, and so Scherzer employs the HBP in his tool chest, to "keep hitters uncomfortable".
Jake (in my opinion, and to his detriment) does not. It shows up, as I see it, in Max's far superior win % after his first few seasons than Jake's career win %. But that is just me speculating. Or is it?
As I see it, if hitters know they might get hit by 100 MPH nastiness, they are less apt to crowd the plate, and more vulnerable to outside corner FBs and sliders. Sounds like a winning approach to me.
It just requires one thing: JAKE TO BE BE LESS OF A GENTLEMAN.
Good for your win % - and for your at-risk teammates, like Marte.
ELIGIBILITY NEWS
Per the NY Post:
“…it will be curious to see whether manager Buck Showalter opts for Ruf or Vientos. If neither steps forward, the Mets could give an audition to Francisco Alvarez, hitting well at Triple-A (the Mets had players who met MLB’s injury criteria, and thus, Alvarez would be eligible for the postseason roster)...”
PROSPECT PLAUDITS
BRYCE MONTES DE OCA: Last 2 AAA outings, 3 innings, 7 Ks, no runs. A NO-doubter for the Mets’ 2023 pen.
Francisco Alvarez: in game 1 of a DH Wednesday night, the aforementioned Alvarez had 2 hits, and 2 walks. He's just 2 good.
Despite his highly observed early AAA slump, his AAA line now includes a .382 OBP.
AND.362/.483/.596 in Sept. So...should it be Ruf...Vientos...or Alvarez?
HE’s just 2 good.
13 comments:
Morning
1. Thank you for the update.
2. I think the "shortstop trade" has turned out to be a win-win situation for both teams. Good.
3. I find myself scratching my head lately regarding both the lack of Mets bats and the dear in the headlight approach by Buck lately.
4. Is anyone still seriously thinking that Ruf is going to contribute this season?
5. Got two new writers on the site. Mets articles should be picking up soon.
On the subject of who should be on the October roster, does everyone forget the ignominious starts for both Brett Baty and Mark Vientos? There is time necessary to respond to both the increased level of competition and the pressure of being in the big leagues. Add in a pennant chase coming down to the final six games and it makes a difficult situation that much more formidable to tackle. Consequently thinking a 21 year old player should make his major league debut in the post season is likely not a formula for success (any more than playing Darin Ruf is). Now if you advocated bringing in Dom Smith who has significant major league experience and finished with a power surge, that could make some sense, though the issue at hand right now is offense in general and right handed hitting in particular.
I am also happy for Rosario and Gimenez - they were good guys with lots of potential. And yes, they were a fair price for Lindor who has been heart and head for the Mets this year.
Interesting point by Tom about the HBP. I was going to argue that everyone is getting hit this year, with 1,966 HBPs in baseball so far this year. Yes the Mets have been hit by everyone, but there's plenty to go around. The Cincinnati Reds' staff has hit 105 batters this year. Tom argues that Jake should come up and in more and I agree. Jake has been the master of the glove side this year, and he has become so entrenched in being able to graze the black of the plate that he does not come in enough to keep batters honest. Good time to start that on Friday by putting some fear into the Braves' relentless hitters.
Reese
I now agree with you
Let the rookies go home and bring up seasoned experienced vets who can handle this pressure
Paul
Hitters have gotten better at controlling the zone.
The only way a pitcher can deal with this is pitch back door or inside.
Thus...
Brush Back Some Braves! Remember Syndergaard in the 2015 World Series? His brushback was a HUGE message.
Jake doing that will make them quake. Edwin and Max do so - so should he.
I agree, it is late to call up Alvarez. I would not rule it out - let's see how the weekend goes. I would not rule out Dom, either.
They NEED a healthy Marte back. He was a truly vital cog.
Jump on a guy when hes down. I maybe let DeGrom walk and use the money somewhere else but. The guy has been great. Injuries brought him down and might be playing a part now. But the guy has been great.. it reminds howfans turned on Harvey.
The great deGrom is just .594 lifetime. The whole is less than the sum of the parts.
U,mmm, have you watched the games?
I've seen .594. I've seen him win less than 40% of his starts. I've seen him not retaliating when our hitters are treated like pin cushions. He can do more to win. Max does more to WIN. Jake needs to do that. During his peak time, there were many fine NBA players. There was only one Michael Jordan, who simply refused to lose. That's my conclusion, Woodrow, you are entitled to yours.
And I am NOT turning on Jake. He is great in many ways - except wins. I want to see him completely unwilling to lose. To win just 1 of 4 against dreg teams, while Koufax was 31-4 against the drag Mets and Astros, something just comes up shorter than it should with him. He should be GOAT - but GOATs win.
GOATs do this: Max Scherzer took the loss Sunday to the Philadelphia Phillies, ending his unbeaten run to 24 consecutive starts, which dated back to May 30, 2021.
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