Reese Kaplan -- In House Pitching Option for the 2023 Rotation

A lot of time and effort has already been spent analyzing, predicting and fretting over who will be in the Mets starting rotation in 2023.  Will Jacob deGrom get serious about leaving to make more money elsewhere?  Is Steve Cohen ready to match what he's paying Max Scherzer for his homegrown (but apparently very fragile) ace starter?  What if other pitchers like Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt choose to depart?  

How good is Tylor Megill really?  Is David Peterson past his prospect status already?  Is the better Carlos Carrasco going to appear again on a consistent basis?  What free agents are available to supplement whomever is already in-house to help out at Citifield and on the road?

One name who has gotten relatively little attention prior to this season is 24 year old righthander Jose Butto.  Although he's made a token appearance with the big club, he's still primarily a minor leaguer who has had some quality outings used primarily as a starter while working his way up the ladder.  During his 5 years starting out in the Dominican Summer League and most recently in Syracuse in AAA he's got a 19-25 losing record, but it requires a look at more than the won-lost numbers to see what he has done.  

During his ascension towards becoming a major league pitcher he has a career ERA of 3.49.  His WHIP numbers are pretty good at 1.196 and he's fanning 1 per inning pitched while walking 2.6 per 9 IP.  Extrapolate those numbers at the major league level and he appears to have middle-of-the-rotation potential.  

Over his last three starts he's been pretty invincible, going 19 innings, having given up just 8 hits while striking out 17 and walking just 2.  Towards his year end he's gotten better and it's against a higher level of competition, too.

What makes his presence doubly important to the payroll budget of the Mets is the fact he would make major league minimum pay.  While Steve Cohen's finances are well known, he is a businessman and needs to balance performance with cost and value.  As such, securing another $40 million pitching arm in deGrom may need to find some more modest pay obligations to help the bottom line.  

Look, for example, of the value the Mets got out of Megill, Drew Smith and others while shouldering the costs for Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Carlos Carrasco and others.  

While no one is suggesting that Butto would be every bit as good as Taijuan Walker if indeed he chooses to pursue bigger bucks elsewhere, it may be necessary to consider someone like him to make other more expensive positions of need possible.  Right now the staff for 2023 is pretty thin if everyone who is eligible to leave chooses to do so.  Consequently it would be wise to start analyzing the other folks who are readily available for promotion next season.  

The team is not only under stress for its rotation.  The bullpen is similarly going to cost quite a bit to refresh as well with several folks likely looking to hit free agency.  Right now Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino, Mychal Givens, Trevor Williams and a host of minor additional options are all eligible.  Obviously they want to retain Diaz but the rest are all up in the air.  The club may try to build a pen based on low cost options like Peterson, Megill and low end free agents, but it's unlikely they will retain all of these more expensive options (several of whom exhibited health issues this season).  

Going forward the Mets need to do a better job of building their minor league system and look to external resources in trade and free agency to supplement what they cannot provide in-house.  Right now there are a number of position players getting lots of publicity for their minor league exploits but not many pitchers are flourishing.  For a club built on pitching throughout its major league history, that development is distressing.  It needs to be addressed.