Paul Articulates – Are the Mets pitchers as good as we think?

As the Mets head into a pivotal series with the Atlanta Braves to determine the NL East leader, Mets fans are confident that the team holds an advantage with their stellar pitching staff.  This was the ace in the hole that if healthy, the staff could be the difference maker in this series and in the playoffs.

I have written with confidence that this Mets team - this Mets staff - was going to tilt important contests in our favor.  I’m worried.

After the Mets won 3 of 4 against the NL-best Dodgers in their late August series, they were faced with the most favorable remaining schedule of all playoff teams.  “Don’t worry about those hard-charging Braves”, we said, “we are going to load up against the bad teams.”  Well, it didn’t happen.  The Mets went 9-7 over 16 games against the lowly Nationals, Pirates, Marlins, and Cubs.  The Mets pitching gave up 61 runs, including 43 in the losses to teams batting a combined .235.  How can this happen for a staff that has a 3.58 ERA, third in the NL?

During that stretch and continuing through last night, we have seen another Max Scherzer stint on the IL due to “fatigue on his left side”, a very human performance from Jacob deGrom, declining performance from Carlos Carrasco, and a revolving door in the bullpen.  Here is some information to consider:

• Max Scherzer has only thrown 17 innings in September.  They have been very effective (1.06 ERA), but because of his health, most of his outings have required multiple bullpen innings to complete the game.  The bullpen has a 4.14 ERA over the month of September.
• Carlos Carrasco has a 4.15 ERA over the month, with an opponent batting average of .284.  In his losses, he has been lit up in the early innings.
• Taijuan Walker has a 5.11 ERA since the all-star break with a 1.35 WHIP over 56 1/3 innings.  In the first half, he had a 2.55 ERA over 91 innings with a 1.09 WHIP.
• Jacob deGrom came back strong from his long hiatus on the injured list, but as he has slowly built up his pitch count, the last inning always seems to be his undoing, quickly disintegrating from spectacular to hittable.  His last start in Oakland saw him tagged for 6 hits and 5 earned runs in 4 innings against a squad that has scored the 2nd least runs in baseball this year.
• A long list of pitchers has moved through the bullpen without making a mark – Tommy Hunter, Alex Claudio, Stephen Nogosek, Rob Zastryzny, Yoan Lopez, Sam Clay, Nate Fisher, and Bryce Montez de Oca have all thrown innings since mid-July without evidence that they should be on the post-season roster.  David Peterson and Tylor Megill, both used as starters earlier in the season are hopefuls for filling relief roles now and in October, but they have failed to string together effective outings out of the pen.

That is a scary list of facts for a pitching staff that was hailed as the strength of the roster.  This was the neutralizer of potent offenses in those cold fall days when the ball doesn’t fly as far and fingers hurt when hitters get jammed.  This is the staff that should have posted a 1.5 ERA against that segment of games against ineffective teams and won better than 80% of those games.  They should not be degrading from overwork - Buck has done a great job at preserving arms, with no starter exceeding 180 innings and the only reliever over 80 innings has been long man Trevor Williams with 83.

There is still hope in short series like the upcoming Braves series and a hopefully-not wildcard three-game series.  But in a five or seven game series where you need a fourth starter, can Carrasco or Walker rise to the occasion?  Can the middle relievers hold a lead until trumpet time when a high-pitch count starter has to leave after five innings?  The answer to these questions will determine the Mets’ fate in this so-far-exceptional season.