12/3/23

My Spin - the 2024 Draft and Emerging First Basemen


 It is very rare that first baseman are even projected to be a first round pick no less actually drafted in that round.

It's just stupid projecting five of the top 20 players drafted as ones that play that bag.

First of all, let's just say this out front. In the past, most first basemen are horrible in the field.  There's a reason your fat friend Jimmy played that position on your schoolyard team. He couldn't catch a cold.

But that tide is turning. These guys are not only grown men with a bat in their hands, but they can hold their own with a glove as well.

Let's face it. The days of Pete Alonso being a Met may be numbered. Can Brett Baty make the conversion to first? Will JT Schwartz find the power that's missing in his game? Or should the Mets be looking for a long term solution at first with one of these guys?

(player profiles from Prospect Live)

Noah Francis - 1B/LHP - IMG Academy (FL)


Another reclassified player from the 2025 class, Franco has some of the best two-way upside in this class. He's got a physical frame with very broad shoulders and plenty of athleticism that plays well on both sides of the ball, though there's a bit more upside with the bat. There is some swing-and-miss to his game, but he's not afraid to rack up walks and doesn't chase a ton, plus he's been able to hold his own in left-on-left matchups. 

There's plenty of bat speed present and he swings with serious intent, spraying the ball to all fields and showcasing solid power up the middle and to his pullside. That'll get better as he becomes physically mature. He's likely limited to first base with his size, though don't let that fool you. He's rather mobile and shows quick twitch at the position, letting his athleticism shine. 

On the bump, he's been into the low-90s with easy, athletic mechanics and it's easy to project him into the mid-90s by next summer. He's got a high spin slider that has some teeth in the low-80s with late sweep, as well as feel for a change-up.

Nick Kurtz - 1B/OF - Wake Forest


Coming in at 6’5, 235lbs, Nick Kurtz is a monster of a human being at the plate. The size, strength, and power Kurtz possesses is a scout's dream. The Wake Forest first baseman has a scary good offensive profile. He is going to draw his fair share of walks due to his patience at the plate while also hitting for massive power thanks to his near 70-grade pop. On top of that, he’s got a well advanced approach at the plate and is able to use the entire field. 

Shockingly for his size, he is fairly athletic and can more than hold his own at first base. He’s one of the best defenders at first base and easily grades as a plus defender. Kurtz is a likely frontrunner to be the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and should be providing plenty of offense as the anchor for the Demon Deacons lineup. He has the makings of becoming a force in a big league lineup and will likely be a fast riser through the minors.

Jac Caglionone - 1B/LHP - Florida


Dubbed the "Ohtani" of college baseball, Caglianone is one of the most well-known players at the amateur level with legitimate two-way potential. There's a bit of rawness to his game, but the power on both sides of the ball are rather impressive. 

We'll start with the bat, which might have the best power in this entire class. It's easy double-plus at the present with extremely quick hand speed and torque, generating a ton of bat speed and all fields power. He's producing some of the loudest exit velocities in the country as a result. 

The hit tool could use some refinement, as he's rather aggressive and expands the zone frequently. On the defensive side, it's a first base profile. 

As an arm, Caglianone has loud stuff, but the command holds him back. The fastball has flirted with triple digits with some life, paired with a bullet-esque slider with solid potential. The change-up has excellent velocity separation and fading life, boasting a high whiff rate. The jury is still out on if he has to choose one or the other, but the upside on both sides is enticing.

Charlie Condon - 1B./OF - Georgia


The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year, Condon's unexpected emergence was a welcome sight. After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon exploded onto the scene with a .386/.484/.800 slash line and 25 home runs in 56 games. Condon has a towering, physical frame at 6'6, 211 pounds with plenty of strength throughout his body and there's quite a bit of projection to it still. Condon has plus raw power to all fields and got to it often in 2023, posting healthy exit velocities and even getting into the 110-115 MPH range. 

It's a ton of bat speed and very quick hands with the barrel exploding through the zone with little effort. There's some hitterish traits with Condon, as he has solid bat-to-ball skills, though he does have his struggles with spin. Defensively, Condon has enough speed and athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, though if he outgrows the position, he can handle first base. The bat would have to continue to perform in that case and that's the selling point right now.

Tommy White - 1B - LSU

One of the key pieces to LSU's national title in 2023, White is a certified slugger. He lives up to his "Tommy Tanks" nickname with legitimate all fields power that comes extremely easy and it grades out as plus, maybe even double-plus, at the next level. It's incredibly quick hands and a ton of bat speed that allow him to punish the ball all over the field. While the power certainly deserves the attention it gets, White's pure bat-to-ball skills are quite promising. 

There's not a ton of swing-and-miss for the slugger that he is and there's impressive in-zone contact rates present in his profile. However, he is quite aggressive and the chase rates are a bit alarming, expanding the zone rather frequently. Scouts would like to see him tone it down and improve his overall patience. Right now, he's manned third base for the Tigers, though at some point in the future, a move to first base is inevitable. He's certainly a bat-first prospect, but it's a bat that is very tough to pass up.


My favorite is Jac, but thats just me.


21 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

All 5 of these look great, with Jac being really intriguing.

Noah Francis, being a two-way high schooler, seems to be next behind Jac.

Reese Kaplan said...

Nick Kurtz is the one who really caught my eye. Thanks for putting this set of profiles together, Mack.

Mack Ade said...

Regarding Pete and Boros

There is one big difference between Boros and other agents.

Other agents negotiate the best deal for THEIR CLIENT

Boras negotiates the beet deal for HIS OWN BANK ACCOUNT

Mack Ade said...

Two things about Francis

1. He will probably go in the top 5 picks

2. A high schooler will slow down getting a replacement in Queens for Pete

Remember1969 said...

I'm with Reese - As I read through these, Nick Kurtz was the one that got to the top of my list and stayed there.

Mack Ade said...

Kurtz is a grown man and should move quickly through the minors

Good chance he too could be top 7 pick

Anonymous said...

Mack how would you rank these 1b men
Eddie

Koos said...

Pitching

Mack Ade said...

Well, right now they are in the order they are projected to go.

The top 2 should go in the top 6 picks of the draft

But things could change

Mack Ade said...

Koos

Tom asked me to add draft posts to my Sunday series.

I agree with you but the hot topic is whether Pete should be traded

Thought I would start with this one

Remember

Taking Pete could bring you back a top prospect AND an established starter

Rds 900. said...

I have no problem drafting Pete's replacement.

Mack Ade said...

Remember

The Mets are probably going to be kicked back 10 slots in this draft making it impossible to wish any of these five will be around with the second pick

Plenty of pitching available then

TexasGusCC said...

Good morning kids! On Tuesday we find out the Mets draft slot; hope they can get some good luck! Whoever is drafted, Ryan Clifford will still be in front of him. Clifford may not be ready when Pete departs, but Vientos and Baty can hold down the fort.

It has been said that Boras works for his clients, not the other way around. But, for so many guys to want him, there’s a reason.

TexasGusCC said...

Thanks for the list Mack! I like Jac too!

Mack Ade said...

Ya know you're right

Clifford could make a great first base replacenent

Mack Ade said...

You are welcome Gus

Let me know what other positions you want me to dig into

Paul Articulates said...

Five studs, all looking like they have the skills to make it. But strange things happen on the way up the ladder. Must try to retain the ones we have.

Amazin Z said...

Mack if the Mets think they can’t resign Pete and do get lucky and pick in the top 6 would they take Kurtz as a fast track 1B replacement? His 70 Power number sounds like Pete and sounds like he could hit for good AVG as well.

Mack Ade said...

They could and should inder these conditions

I like Jac only based that I think Kurtz will be gone when the Mets would pick at 6

Mack Ade said...

Gus has a great plan here for Clifford

Amazin Z said...

Thanks Mack. I’d be fine with either. With Boras I just have an uneasy feeling that Pete may not be our 1B in 2025.