Reese Kaplan -- So You're Searching for a Glove-First Outfielder FA...

So if the season started today, you would have some combination of Brandon Nimmo, hopefully healed Starling Marte, perhaps infielder or outfielder Jeff McNeil and perhaps DH more than fielder DJ Stewart.  It's not exactly the kind of depth and breadth to fill opponents hearts with butterflies.  

David Stearns in his Nashville commentary did confess they are after an outfielder (as well as saying that Jeff McNeil should return to second base).  That being said, you have really just Brandon Nimmo until everyone knows how healthy and capable Marte is and despite some nice weeks in 2023, no one who is theoretically contending for October baseball would see Stewart as a regular.  At least one outfielder is most definitely needed.

So who all is out there?   Well, at the top of the market are the QO duo.  This group would include Cody Bellinger and Shoehei Ohtani who is more of a DH than a fielder.  Given the compensation assessment necessary to ink one of this pair, figure the Mets will gracefully bow out.  

That brings us to the next group of contenders for a new employer who may or may not reside in Flushing.Figure the Mets to be looking for someone for a maximum of about two years with one exception we'll consider at the end.  After all, they are on the hook for paying Starling Marte for two more years after which time for sure some of the AA Baby Mets should be ready to perform in the majors.  

Unlike the 2023 plan with Cy Young worthy pitchers who are at the very end of their careers, one of David Stearns' stated objectives is to reinforce the defense the Mets deliver as they finished near the bottom of the game in that regard.  Towards that end, it's a pretty safe assumption to rule out players who are either unhealthy, poor defenders or simply not a good fit.  Let's have a look:

Michael Brantley has had a long and productive career with a good batting average, but already age 36 and fighting various physical aliments most of the past four years he is not an ideal fit.  Throw in his $12 million ending salary and it's simply not a smart choice.

People in New York reacted enthusiastically when the Mets signed Tommy Pham as a spare part for 2023, but he delivered with his bat while not embarrassing himself with his glove.  His ending words about the state of the Mets likely terminated any future prospect of employment here and given his solid play in the second half of the year and post season he's going to want more money in the latter stage of his career.  I'd say no here as well.

Strong glove men are nothing to sneeze at but playing them everyday when they can't contribute above a replacement level on offense is not a good model for a new player.  Harrison Bader has tried and failed in St. Louis, the Bronx and Cincinnati.  He has a Gold Glove in his display cabinet but he's just a career .243 hitter.  Think Juan Lagares.  How much did he help the Mets win?  I'd pass on the younger but glove-only Bader.  

The gifted defense of Kevin Kiermaier is just as desirable as Bader despite being a few years older.  His best offensive season was not any better and in his last  year in Toronto he earned $9 million which was a step down from his past.  He'd likely get that or less going forward in a season during which he'll turn 34.  Again, he's not an ideal fit either.  

Now Joc Pederson has had an up and down baseball career when it comes to what he does with the bat, though his defense is certainly solid.  He's only a career .237 hitter though to his credit he has on 6 separate occasions topped the 20 HR mark (and once surpassed 30).  At age 32 going into the 2024 season he's got probably 4 more years to play, but his one year ending salary with the Giants was for over $19 million whereas in the past he'd never gone into the 8 digit annual salary range.  He'll take a big hit on his payday but he'll want a longer term deal and as such I am not that inclined to offer one.

One guy with good run production skills but suspect defense is Teoscar Hernandez.  During his eight years with Houston, Toronto and Seattle he's hit .261 which is solid while also offering up a 162 game average of 32 HRs and 94 RBIs.  Those numbers are quite good and would serve the team well as a DH but not as a defensive step up in the outfield.  His ending salary before free agency was $14 million and the Mariners chose not to extend a QO to him.  Figure he will get around the same number or a slight increase for 3-4 years since he's ust turned 31.  

Another hitter to consider is Jorge Soler who plays the outfield poorly or can serve as a DH.  Reading his performance numbers suggests less predictability than what Hernandez provides but his highs have been very high, including a 27 HR, 36 HR and 48 HR season during his career.  Unfortunately he already is ending at even more money than Hernandez and would likely be a dice roll as to what he could contribute as a DH, but not as a defensive improvement in the outfield.

Veteran Adam Duvall has always been known more as a hitter than as a defender.  At age 36 he's had five solid seasons during a ten year career when it comes to home runs and RBIs but at the expense of a .237 career batting average.  Pass...not even as a DH candidate.  

A familiar name to Mets fans is the oft-injured outfielder Michael Conforto.  His defensive play was always adequate though he was more known as a right fielder than left fielder.  With the Giants he was paid $18 million to hit 15 HRs and drive in 58.  Now he's a better player than that but how much of a pay cut will he take after having approached the $20 million promised land.  I'm of the been there, done that philosophy on Conforto who is not known for his batting average any more than he is for his health.  Good luck to him where he lands but it won't be at LaGuardia. 

If you did a survey on the most frustrating ballplayers in the game, Joey Gallo would be near the top of that list.  No one disputes the man's home run power.  In parts of 9 seasons split between four teams he averages 37 HRs per 162 games but his career batting average is below the Mendoza line.  His ending salary is $11 million and he'll likely stay in the eight digit range for his next employer not named the New York Mets.

Well traveled Hunter Renfroe is another one who never seemed to hit the upper echelon of the better players in the game.  He's a .239 hitter spread across a half dozen employers and while he's adequate as a 4th outfielder the power numbers are not impressive enough to withstand the strikeouts and low average.  Pass.

Outfielder Randal Grichuk is a .249 career hitter with 20+ HR power.  The numbers aren't that bad but it doesn't seem worthy of an eight figure salary.  He'll be employed but hopefully not in Queens.

The final familiar name on this list is one-time hot prospect Wil Myers.  After a long career in San Diego where he eclipsed the $22 million salary level, he went to Cincinnati where no one wanted to see any more of him at that price point in the future.  He'll take a huge cut in pay as he approaches his age 33 season and again you have to wonder what a .253 hitting outfielder with 20 HR power is worth?  He doesn't appear to be a great fit either.  

Apparently the Mets are one of a few teams in relatively hot pursuit of defensive magician Michael A. Taylor.  He is a Gold Glove natural center fielder but does so at a career average under .240 albeit with occasional 20 HR power massaging an otherwise mediocre offensive stat sheet.  He earns very little  at $4.5 million but sometimes bargain hunting is not the way to go when you are already having trouble plating runs and would then be handing over 1/9 of the lineup appearances to a guy who hits worse than the aforementioned Juan Lagares.  He's a weak choice three.

Relocated Cuban outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been a productive player since arriving in the USA.  He picked a great time to have one of his best seasons in 2023 in Arizona where he made the All Star team.  He finished the year with a .261 average, 24 HRs and 82 RBIs.  That's actually slightly below his career average of .279 and given his age of 30 he might hit that sweet spot of athleticism power and batting average.  Even better, he's become a free agent now with an ending salary under $6 million.  Bringing him to the Mets for perhaps an $8 million salary for 3-4 years would not give the front office any black eyes.  He would clearly be my number two choice for David Stearns.

That brings us to who is number one.  You want solid defense.  How is a multiple Gold Glove winner?  You want good hitting?  How is a career .340 average?  You want some power?  How is 20+ HR capability?  You want youth?  How is age 25?  Korean superstar Jung Hoo Lee is going to be posted at the ripe old age of just 25.  Reports have him estimated to get a 5-year deal for $50 million.  At $10 million per year you're addressing the needs identified at what appears to be a bargain price with relatively little risk as he transitions to the Major Leagues.  He's my number one selection and hopefully David Stearns is on the same page.