Reese Kaplan -- There's Still a Lot of Work to Do

2024 is almost upon us and the Mets have obtained one theoretically starting capable player in injury rehab candidate Lusi Severino.  Adrian Houser is someone who is being sold to us as a great addition, and while he's no Cy Young candidate, the fact is that his career ERA of 4.00 would push him well ahead of the in-house options.  The bullpen has yet to feel reinforced.  And let's not even think about the offensive side of the ledger.

OK, so as an early New Year's resolution I will look forward to what can be done rather than backwards at what failed to occur.  

There are a lot of improvements already made to the farm system, the development of younger players working their way up the ladder and in particular the manner in which pitching is analyzed at the several month old lab.  These changes should manifest into great positives in the future, but the question remains what is being done to help the present?

Rather than focus on the pitching that the club still needs, today let's look at how to address the need for improved hitting.  The current linup has three well known and predictable bats in Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo.  Then you have recuperating Starling Marte who could play like it was 2022 or again like it was 2023.  

Francisco Alvarez showed great ability for his forced rookie introduction to the majors but the batting average was still nowhere near it needs to be.  Jeff McNeil was having a major letdown in 2023 after winning the NL batting title in 2022, but few expect it is a sign of permanent regression.  

The DH role has been a black hole since the league approved its use.  There are three approaches to take:

Play the Kids

With Eduardo Escobar gone and Ronny Mauricio in rehab, that pretty much leaves the third base job to youngster Brett Baty.  To be fair, Baty has demonstrated during his minor league career an elite level of hitting yet no one saw any of that materialize in 2023.  Some are fed up and say trade him away.  

The problem with this approach is that his value is pretty much in the basement and you wouldn't get much in return.  That move would also make third base another great vacancy that was not answered well between Howard Johnson and David Wright, nor since then.  The better approach would be to show full confidence in Baty but have a spare part on the bench just in case.  

Mark Vientos also has shown throughout his minor league career some serious run production capability.  In his favor came his hot September whe the long balls were flying out of the park to suggest a 30+ homer capability.  The problem is that he has not gotten sufficient with his glove anywhere on the diamond.  He is rigid and unimpressive at third base and he's totally blocked across the field at first base.  He's not fleet enough afoot to think about transitioning him to the outfield. 

Consequently DH may be his most suitable role, but you can't yank him out of the position the first time he goes 0-4.  It's not as if he's trying to outdo the legends of Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz.  He merely has to be better than Darin Ruf and Daniel Vogelbach.  Even the most cynical fans would likely concede he couldn't possibly be worse.

Add 1-2 Year Role Players to Tide the Team Over

Now here's where it gets interesting.  There are still a number of potent bats available in free agency which won't bankrupt the team of its now formidable group of prospects.  Two names shoot to the top of the list -- J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner.  One is much more expensive and one has an early career team affiliation.  Let's have a brief look.

Martinez has long moved himself from outfielder to designated hitter and never looked back.  Save for a hiccup in ability during the 2022 season.  (2020 was nothing to write home about either, but many players around the league didn't adjust well to the delayed and then abbreviated schedule).  

In 2022, though, he had a full year to play like, well, J.D. Martinez and he slipped off the cliff by his elite standards.  He batted .274 which was a little lower than usual, but the power numbers showed just 16 HRs and 62 RBIs.  That output was reminiscent of a full time baseball player earning his living, but not of a then five time All Star with a pair of Silver Sluggers.  Many thought old age had caught up to him and it would be all downhill from there.

Well, the Dodgers in 2023 found out that Martinez during his age 35/36 season was far from finished.  He made his sixth All Star team and finished the year looking like a true middle of the order bat, hitting .271 with 33 HRs and 103 RBIs.  How would Lindor and Alonso like that kind of protection in the lineup?   

His cost and contract duration are going to be higher on an AAV and will likely require 2 years with an option for a 3rd.  He was paid a highly reasonable $10 million for his output in 2023.  Expect him to command a 50% increase in pay which means at minimum a $30 million contract for 2024 and 2025.  That's not chicken feed but if he can approxiimate the same output it would be a bargain indeed.  Starling Marte makes more than that.

Then there's fan favorite Justin Turner who has also shown plenty of hitting ability during his days with the Mets and then later with the Dodgers and Red Sox.  His accomplishments include a pair of All Star game appearances and a pair of top 15 level votes for the league's MVP award.  He's not quite at the J.D. Martinez level of  play, but at a career average of 20 HRs and 80 RBIs he would be a big improvement.  His 2023 was rock solid at age 38/39.  

He would likely be seeking about $10 million for a season in which he'd turn 40.  Some might argue that he is a smarter choice given his age requiring likely a single year investment and he could provide that emergency backup to play 3B in the event Baty stumbles again.

There are other older players available to consider who might command a short term deal but most have shown multi year decline in production and probably not worth consideration here. 

Invest in Long Term Solutions

This approach has probably gotten the least play as folks debate the best way to proceed.  While everyone is aware that the club has access to a lot of solutions in free agency next year, the fact remains that they need to think long term about the team's overall offensive ability.  

As of now Pete Alonso could be leaving as a free agent and you don't find 40 HR/120 RBI abilities from players like Joey Wendle nor year 4 of Starling Marte.  Consequently it might make sense to invest in a younger, longer term option for DH who could help not only in 2024 but in subsequent years as well.

The first name that comes up is Teoscar Hernandez, a proven slugger who could shoehorn into the current lineup but will continue to provide ability for the next 3-4 years.  Right now at age 31 he averages a season of .261 with 32 HRs and 92 RBIs.  He does swing and miss an awful lot, but the positives may outweigh the negatives.  This right handed power hitter will likely command a 4-year $64 million contract.  That average of $16 million per season is not terrible and the run production is for real.

The second one who comes up frequently is Jorge Soler most recently of the Miami Marlins.  This big right handed hitter is good for 30 HRs and north of 80 RBIs, though his batting average has always been a struggle to hit over .240.  

He is a little bit older than Hernandez but likely will receive less money given his more modest production.  He doesn't strike out nearly as much but then he also doesn't produce at the same level.  He was a bit overpriced at $15 million last year and might for a 4-year deal look to get about the same AAV or slightly less.  

While neither of these players are guys you would hit cleanup in your lineup, they certainly seem like they would offer more than previous entries into the DH mold.  The question remains could a near minimum wage Mark Vientos approximate what you would get from Martinez, Turner, Hernandez or Soler?  

Right now it would seem that a Turner reunion is the most likely way for the team to progress, but other options indeed do exist.