12/23/23

Reese Kaplan -- So Who's "Left" for the Starting Rotation?


The media is rife with "what if?" articles right now concerning the prospect of the Mets missing out on Japanese young phenom Yoshinubo Yamamoto.  Rather than dance around the same well trod ground yet again after he decided to go join the Dodgers, let's consider that the Mets still need one to two starting pitchers to join the trio of Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino.  For today's exercise, let's see who's "left" as an available free agent.  After all, southpaw starting pitchers are not exactly a dime a dozen, but there are some relative potential bargains available.

Sometimes you are seeking an innings eater who will give you a chance to stay in the game and not give it away as many 2023 Mets pitchers did on a frustratingly regular basis.  James Paxton is not a kid.  He's already 35 years old but when you look at his statistics he's a winning pitcher with a career record of 64-38 with a 3.69 ERA.  His best season appeared to be during 2017 for the Seattle Mariners when he went 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA.  

He's never been a huge winner, never been an All Star and has bounced around a bit from Seattle twice, the Yankees and most recently with the Red Sox.  He's good for striking out nearly 10 per 9 IP while walking 2.8.  Those kinds of numbers are what you'd like for the back of your rotation and for Boston last year he earned a modest $4 million.  

At his age he'd likely take a 1-2 year deal at a salary of perhaps $10 million for the 2 year contract.  At $5 million per year he would most definitely be an asset even if he's not going to make anyone swoon with his star potential.  He is what he is and that's pretty good.


The most interesting free agent available domestically is the statistically highly impressive Korean import Hyun Jin Ryu.  He has been in the USA since 2013 with the Dodgers when he arrived as a 26 year old (reminiscent of the current infatuation with 25 year old Yamamoto).  

Ryu has been a very capable pitcher during his 10 years in the majors with a career ERA of just 3.27.  During 2019 he won the ERA title with a 2.37 number for the full season and made the All Star team.  His career record is a winning 78-48 and he's good for 8 Ks per 9 IP with just 2 walks.  His WHIP is impressive as well.  

He went from LA to Toronto for the last four seasons and is finishing up his last season of being paid $20 million per year.  Unlike Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, though the money might be a bit high, he's due for a reduction at age 37 and after a substandard season.  He too would likely be a 1-2 year commitment and perhaps might drop to about $14 million which given his track record is money well spent.


A familiar face to Mets fans based upon his brief 2021 trial as a starting pitcher the second part of the year for the boys in blue and orange, at age 44 Rich Hill says he's not ready to hang them up just yet.  For his career he has a 4.01 career though in 2023 he was over 5.00.  

At this age and stage of his career you could likely do a minor league deal with major league option for perhaps half of the $8 million he earned last season split between the Pirates and the Padres.  He's a 5th starter at best and surely would only require a one year conditional type of contract.

We won't reiterate the well publicized prospective deal for Imanaga.  At first everyone thought he'd be available for a Senga-like 5 year $75 million deal, but the wild Shoehei Ohtani contract and the frantic bidding for Yamamoto is going to drive up everyone's price.  Now there are rumors he may hit the $100 million price tag for a five year deal which is not horrible given his career ERA around 3.00.  

The Mets are surely interested but no one knows if it is primary interest or consolation prize interest should Yamamoto decide to go to the Bronx, Los Angeles or elsewhere.


All is not lost yet for the Mets as there are some interesting left handed pitchers still available on the open market who require just a contract and no sacrifice of player personnel.  

12 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Some solid lefty pitching candidates. I'd look for which guy pitches best against the Braves and Phillies.

I still like Joey Lucchesi, but I appear to be a lonely soul in that regard.

Personally, I'd rather see the Mets spend all their money on top tier relievers. Get the ball out of existing starters' hands ASAP.

Gary Seagren said...

Ryu and Paxton make sense but also Hader and more BP adds so if SC saved 325 million this is buy 1 get 1 free additions but don't skimp on the BP please. Look we could sign Ryu Paxton AND Snell or Monty for what we would have spent on Yama Daba Do. I don't want a give up year and with SC's money we shouldn't have to while still staying with the "build from the ground up philosophy". We should at the very least be a competitive team even if we fall short of the post season. We cannot accept another 75 win team as we've been there way to many times in our history and especially with the richest owner in sports at the helm. LGM!

Mack Ade said...

Starting Pitchers

Shane Bieber (30)
Walker Buehler (30)
Corbin Burnes (30)
Luis Cessa (33)
Alex Cobb (37)*
Gerrit Cole (34)* – can opt out of remaining four years and $144MM, though Yankees can void by adding a $36MM salary for 2029
Patrick Corbin (35)*
Anthony DeSclafani (35)
Nathan Eovaldi (35)* – $20MM player option if Eovaldi meets certain conditions
Jack Flaherty (29)
Max Fried (31)
Kyle Gibson (37) – option
Marco Gonzales (33) – $15MM club option (no buyout)
Andrew Heaney (34)
Kyle Hendricks (35)
Merrill Kelly (36) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Yusei Kikuchi (34)
Joey Lucchesi (32)
Jordan Lyles (34)
Lance Lynn (38) – $11MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Nick Martinez (34) – can opt out of remaining one year, $12MM
Wade Miley (38) – $12MM mutual option with a $1.5MM buyout
John Means (32)
Charlie Morton (41)
Freddy Peralta (29) – $8MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Martin Perez (34)*
Nick Pivetta (32)
Jose Quintana (36)
Robbie Ray (33)* – can opt out of remaining two years and $50MM
Colin Rea (34) – $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Chris Sale (36) – $20MM club option
Max Scherzer (40)*
Luis Severino (31)
Drew Smyly (36) – $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout, if he does not opt out after 2023
Mike Soroka (27)
Matt Strahm (33)
Ross Stripling (35)
Justin Verlander (42)* – conditional player option
Michael Wacha (33) – $16MM player option
Zack Wheeler (35)*
Trevor Williams (33)

Mack Ade said...

This is the list of free agents NEXT YEAR

Tom Brennan said...

Hard to think of Zack Wheeler as 35 years old.

Joey Lucchesi could be the first $1 Billion deal.

Kidding aside, you can now see why Yamamoto was so highly sought after.

Anonymous said...

Mr Mack loves his lists. Merry Christmas. Albert

Amazin Z said...

I’m starting to think that Stearns is going to rely on some combo of Scott, Stuart, Vasil, Hamel, Megill, Butto, or Peterson as our #3, #4, and #5 SP’s in 2025. We all know that Peterson and Megill aren’t consistent enough to be counted on for more than a #5 SP. So he’s relying on the others to fill out the #3 and #4 Rotation slots and sign Burnes or someone as the co-Ace with Senga? Dangerous gamble as you never know if prospects will pan out.

Also Burnes is the only reliable Ace that will sign with us with as well as another 8+ teams that bid for his services. Fried will either resign ATL or go back home to West Coast. Wheeler is already in talks with resigning with the Phils and probably won’t come back here anyway. Beiber is trending backwards, Woodruff coming off serious injury and Buehler is injury prone. I wouldn’t rely on next year to sign my FA SP.

Senga is the Mets only SP under contract in 2025. He’d be smart to sign at least one of Montgomery, Imanaga, or Beiber this year to have two SP slots locked up for 2025. We also need an innings eating SP as no one in our current Rotation besides Senga threw more then 110 innings last year. Seems many Mets fans are worried about being in the Luxury Tax almost every year. Well the Dodgers and Yankees don’t seem to be worried about it so why should we.

Amazin Z said...

I meant Giolito not Beiber when signing a FA

Tom Brennan said...

Amazin Z, a few days after Christmas, I have an article speculating on what the starting staff could look like. They likely won't go that route - but they could.

nickel7168 said...

I too, view Lucchesi as our #4 starter...assuming Severino can even hold down the #3 spot.
And Houser as #5 with Megill & Butto as depth.
Of course, that rotation changes if Mets sign a #2, #3, or #4 before the season starts, which I expect them to do, but I still like Lucchesi in the rotation.

Tom Brennan said...

I like Joey's repertoire. I don't know if that is the fan in me, but I also like guys who go thru a whole season without losing.

Tom Brennan said...

Anyone want Cookie Carrasco back? Didn't think so.