Once there was a very bright Dark Knight, followed by dark nights
“… you can never have enough starters, a wise man once said.”
Consider the Metropolitans’ current reality.
Iron men like Seaver, Koosman and Doc are no longer around.
Guys pitching here of late spend as much time on the operating table as on the mound.
Let’s recap…the Fab Five we’re going to dominate for a decade, but…
Harvey was just so awesome as a Met - for so briefly.
deGrom was often fabulous - but has made an average of just 11 starts the past 3 seasons. Two Cy’s, and many more sighs.
Matz started out his career like a house on fire, going 11-1 in his first 14 career starts - shades of Kershaw - but thereafter a lousy 43-57 in 7 1/2 seasons since early 2016, when the brilliance suddenly ended.
Syndergaard went from Thor to Snore, going an electric 37-22 in his first four seasons (one of which he missed extended time in), then just 12-17 from 2020 to 2023, much of that involving injury downtime.
Wheeler has been pretty great the past 6 seasons, but he was just 18-16 his first 2 seasons, then missed 2 full, long years due to arm issues, and in the next (return) season, was just 3-7. (Has he really been around that long?)
He debuted in 2013, so 11 seasons have transpired including 2013 since then. He has 87 wins, which is 8 wins per season, whether he pitched in a given year or not.
Beyond the Former Fragile Five:
Cookie was good for a while, and then got cookie-old crumbled.
Megill and Peterson have had their share of injuries. Peterson, drafted in 2017, threw his most pro innings ever in 2023…a mere 148. Megill, drafted in 2018, holds the bragging rights…he threw 153 pro innings in 2023.
Max showed some 2023 mortality, and Verlander missed several starts.
Matt Allan vanished,Tom Szapucki was oh-so rarely healthy….
I could go on and on. So, I will, for a bit longer…
Minors starter Calvin Ziegler threw 1 inning in 2023. Innings limit a wee bit low there.
Coleman Crow will miss all of 2024 after missing most of 2023.
No doubt whatsoever that I left some starter Studebakers out.
Even soft-tossing Jordan Yamamoto recently missed a big chunk of time.
Your viable Mets starters as of today, heading towards 2024, are:
1) Quintana (missed lots of time in recent years, including half of 2023)
and
2) Senga the Sertainly Sensational. But “just” 166 innings in 2023.
They are not “Spahn and Sain, and a day of rain.”
You’ll need more than 100 days of rain for those two to pitch the whole season without help.
(Spahn, just to point out sheer greatness, threw over 300 innings twice, and averaged close to 280 innings per year over a 17 year span from 1947 through 1963. In 1963, at age 42, he threw 260 innings and went 23-7).
Moving on…
Lesser starter lights in Metsville are 4 starters:
Joey, Tylor, Butto, Peterson.
All are IMO 5th to 7th starters talent-wise. And, naturally, Peterson got an early start to the 2024 IL, as he will miss at least the first 1/3 of 2024 with his hip surgery.
Sturdier guys like Stroman, Bassitt, and Taijuan, meanwhile, were not kept.
And Wobbly Wacha waltzed away, only to be a brilliant 25-6 spanning the past 2 seasons - elsewhere. (25-6 sure beats 6-25, huh?)
I came across an unofficial front office recording’s tape recording discussing those 4 departed hurlers:
“Sturdy?? Nah! Let’s go with old, injury-prone arm instead. Who needs sturdy? Let’s overpay Grandpa instead. Hey, let’s overpay TWO Grandpas!”
Back to Starter “prospects” - they should provide only very limited innings backfill in 2024, per Steamers. Fewer than 100 innings from Vasil and Hamel in 2024 in Queens. And Steamers is likely correct there. So…
Massive starter upgrades this off season are needed, yes?
Luis Severino is a good start, I think. Still….
HELP! SOS! HELP!
Winter meetings start Monday.
Forget bringing home the bacon.
Bring home the “Help” instead.
16 comments:
How many are truly sturdy anymore?
Let me reword this
Does any team gave a mega healthy rotation?
This is a great rationale for going with a 6-man rotation for most of the season, Mack, which I have a sneaky feeling the Mets are considering - though that means bringing in two more SP’s (Yamamoto and Montgomery?) and maybe even a swing guy to add depth. It could also get your starters to go later in games. Promising to do so might also be an advantage in signing Yamamoto - keeping him closer to the once per week outings he (and Senga as well) is used to. It probably wouldn’t hurt the oft-injured Severino or the 35 yr/old Quintana either. Just a hunch.
The Mets made a good call on letting Matz go. They made a terrible move letting Wheeler go. I don’t have a problem using a six man rotation, but only if they go 7 innings each. I’m not paying my $25MM and still need to add a starter…. Further, I believe a strong bullpen is more important than stud starters. I could live with five #3 starters if I have a strong bullpen. A #3 starter will give you five good innings, or two times through the order. An ace goes at least three times. So, with teams not wanting pitchers to throw a third time through, give me five #3’s and a strong bullpen. Bet they win a lot of games.
Great article . Which SP’s would you like to see Stearns bring in?
I could definitely see a 6-man rotation for ‘24.
Texas, I'm with you. NYM have also lacked a strong ‘pen for years . We’ve been told that Stearns’ specialty is finding -stud under the radar arms . Let’s see him go to work while adding via free agency .
The Mets didn’t make a good call letting Matz go, Matz chose to leave..: it would have been another Mets blunder if they had it their way.
Eddie
The Mets didn't let Wheelerbgo
He had no desire to remain a Met
Ok guys, let’s get real:
Mack, the Mets never made an offer. Let’s not act like Wheeler had a choice. We defend the Mets a bit too much. They did not feel he was going to stay healthy.
Anonymous, Matz’ ERA was almost 10 and they traded him to the Jays. He then was a free agent and they didn’t pursue.
That was me.
Offer or not Wheeler did not want to be second fiddle on the Mets
I know this
My thought is that the best bullpen is built by extending the workload of the starters to at least 7 innings. There is no bullpen in the country that can handle 4 guys being used every day of the week. They have to thing about how to get 27 outs a little differently than they have in the past few years.
A six man rotation with starters averaging 7 innings or more is one way to do that. The other way is to have half your bullpen guys be able to throw three or four innings at a time so they can finish a game with only two pitchers.
The occasional extra inning games really kill the one and done pen.
I know Stearns is aware of this all, and a decent rotation and strong (top 5) pen is the likely best chance of success. Anxious to see what he builds.
Baseball Ref projects Severino at 6-7, 4.90 for 2024. I sure hope he does better than that.
If the rotation is Senga,Gioloto,.Severino, Quintana and Luchessi the bull pen better b good!
I.may be crazy but Seth Lugo is a Free Agent?
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