12/13/23

Reese Kaplan -- Can Small Ball Lead to Big Wins?


The frustration most Mets fans are feeling right now probably has its roots in offense even more so than pitching.  Yes, everyone is well aware of the need for the Mets to bolster both their starting rotation and bullpen, but the fact remains it was the offense that let them down even more during the embarrassing 2023 season that just ended.

Thus far the new front office personnel have been highly active on the bottom, signing pitchers and bench players to major league, minor league and split option deals to help reinforce the roster while replacing many who have departed voluntarily or otherwise.  It seems that every other day we're reading about some fringe player becoming a part of the Mets depth yet the roster remains wide open with 7 vacancies to fill plus the additional one that will develop when the 60-day IL bound David Peterson can later be moved off of it.  

So as well sit here fretting over who the Mets will sign at the top end of the playing roster, the old question about the best way to improve the scoring potential of the roster once again surfaces.  Many are lusting after big home run hitters like Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, Teoscar Hernandez, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler or others available simply for dollars without sacrificing player resources.  


While unable to sleep last night I started pondering a different approach for the Mets to take on offense with some decent roster reinforcements but without the all-or-nothing swinging approach.  Let's just say that as much as it would be nice to know the Mets could use a few guys who can put one over the wall at any time, the flip side is watching the 200 at bats when swinging at strike three creates no positive impact whatsoever.  We don't need any Joey Gallos no matter how appealing 30+ home runs would be when it comes accompanied by a lifetime batting average under .200.


So go with me for a minute in consideration of a player like Jeff McNeil.  Can he hit home runs?  Yes, though he's not going to rival Pete Alonso nor Francisco Lindor for their home run frequency.  Can he avoid striking out?  Yes, he makes contact nearly every time he's at bat.  Is he a dead pull hitter?  No, he uses pretty much the entire field which makes defending against him a bit of a challenge.  Does he get on base frequently?  Why, yes, he does.  Is he dead weight on the base paths?  Well, no one will mistake him for an at-his-prime Starling Marte or uninjured Ronny Mauricio, he runs intelligently and won't hurt you like say a Daniel Vogelbach.  

Finally, can he hit?  Well, the last time I looked he sports a career batting average of merely .298.  Can you think of anyone else on the Mets now or throughout their long history who was that good while swinging the lumber?  Obviously McNeil is a vital cog in the machine and added more to his resume when he showed he could play all around the infield in the corner spots in the outfield. 

So try a little experiment and think what the team would be like if in addition to Alonso, Alvarez and Lindor who can all home with the best of them, they loaded up on more players in the mold of Jeff McNeil who get on base regularly and possess all of the offensive skills outlined above.  Imagine if those home runs and doubles hit by the power hitters actually had men on base ahead of them to increase the number of runs scored.  

The biggest frustration of the 2023 squad after slumps and injuries was watching players get on base and stay there while the hitters were more adept at the long ball than they were at the single.  

Towards that end, everyone agrees that the Mets indeed need more productivity out of the DH spot and at least one outfield spot.  Starling Marte's contributions are a big unknown and the Baby Mets trio of Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have not as of yet established their major league bona fides to ensure that what they provide is written in stone. 


So instead of pursuing an expensive clone of Dave Kingman (offensively), I'd rather see  the Mets consider the prospect of someone like Jung Hoo Lee as the newest outfielder.  Yes, it's well known that Korean ball is not quite at major league level, but it sure is hard to sneeze at a lifetime .340 hitter with strong defensive metrics and solid base running as well as 20 HR power.  

In a way he reminds me of another Jeff McNeil who was somewhat a surprise playing even better in the majors than he did in the minors.  Of course, by banking on Yoshinubo Yamamoto as primary focus, the Mets were asleep at the switch and he went to the Giants instead.  

Factor in a slightly scaled down aggregate of performance stats accompanied by a modest salary requirement and he would seem to be just the kind of player the Mets need to add to their run scoring potential.  After all, the big guys can drive in more runs if there are actually guys on base for them to deliver.  

Believe it or not, these types of solid day-to-day hitters are few and far between, particularly since the steroid era where the infatuation with the long ball infected just about everyone.  Maybe some small ball is a smarter zig to deploy while everyone else continues to zag.    

28 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Well, Ronny is likely out for most or all of 2024…

Contact-wise, there are two seasons. Power talks in Season 2, playoffs.

Kyle Schwarber has 20 post season HRs. Twenty.

I’ll take power guys who can reasonably get on base.

This team leads the majors in disappointments since 1986.

Tom Brennan said...

Victor Scott II, he of the 80 grade speed and 112 steals in 2023, is the type of small ball player to draft, if you are inclined to small ball. The Mets didn’t, and the Cards did, in round 5.

To my knowledge, Victor Scott has never torn an ACL, despite his abundance of sprinting. Mets do that.

Rds 900. said...

Well said, Reese.

Mack Ade said...

Small ball... big ball... or in my case dead ball...

The reality is the goals for 2024 changed overnight once the MRI results came out

The Mets need more than ever to target 2025 as their go to year

In 2024...

Give third to some combination of Baty and Vientos

Sign Justin Turner to back up second and third

Move Jeff back to second

Slightly speed up both Jett and Acuña by starting them out in Syracuse

Sign a multi year deal with a legitimate star outfielder

Mack Ade said...

Took my girlfriend to a baseball game one night

I kissed her between the strikes

........

TexasGusCC said...

While the appearance of being asleep while Lee signed with the Giants gives the Mets a bad look, his lack of power and unfamiliarity with elite fastballs certainly gave the Mets pause; I can’t blame them. The Giants are desperate to have someone take their money: Correa didn’t; Judge didn’t; Ohtani was given the same package from the Giants, according to their POBO but he didn’t. Zaidi has been under heat to bring in a name and has alot of money to use. Interesting that he didn’t go after Berlinger who has a QO attached and may be less appealing.

The king right now of the makes contact and has power department just got traded to the Yankees. The Dodgers have loaded up on them, and now the Mets have to figure out how to catch up.

Anonymous said...

Mack, hopefully you had more time for a better kiss. I would suppose that kissing her between the balls would have been a much shorter one.

Tom Brennan said...

Luisangel Acuna’s big brother should go out and hire the services of recently retired pro pitchers that LA Acuna could face daily all off season. Speed him along hitting-wise.

Mack Ade said...

This team has the talent within the chain

But not next season

Viper said...

This off-season is beginning to feel like the Wilpons are still in charge. They would go big one year and if it didn't work out, basically do nothing the next year.

Jung Hoo Lee ignored.
Very good BP arms, still being ignored.
Justin Turner who, in my opinion, would be a great fit for these Mets, ignored.

Fact is boys and girls that if the Mets don't get Yamamoto, they might as well trade Pete Alonso (I think that anyway) for a nice package, sign Turner and Martinez with the idea of trading them at the trade deadline.

In the meantime, play Turner at 3B, DH Martinez and Vientos and Baty split time at 1B or if the Mets don't sign Martinez and want to find out exactly what they have, play Vientos at 1B and Baty at 3B while Turner is the DH at least for a couple of months. If neither of Vientos of Baty show improvements with the glove, Turner takes over and either Vientos or Baty becomes the DH.

2025? at this rate, it might be 2026.



Gary Seagren said...

Mack is she now your wife? Lee of course was just signed by the Giants so the most disappointing winter in some time continues added by the quote from Sterns about a plan B if Yama signs elsewhere as my misery with both my football teams (nice game by Zach and a few good ones from Tommy touchdown helps alittle) and our Mets once again makes me question my choice of teams so long ago. I too thought Lee would have been a good pick oh well. So lets see we saw Soto go to the Evil Empire, Yama seemingly fade to the backround of 20 other teams in pursuit, lose Mauricio for next season, sign a endless stream of "not ready for primetime" players and although I never saw us have any interest in Ohtani how was "Mr. Richest owner in Sports" so schooled by that dam team on the west coast? Where do I go to sign up for next seasons ticket package? Lets Go Mets???? Go where exactly?

TexasGusCC said...

Viper, I approve your comment.

Viper said...

This is what I don't get from the Mets this off-season.

They need pitching, they need BP, they need a CF, they need to improve the defense, offense and improve the bench.

So far they have managed to fix......yeah, those are crickets sounding in the background.

Bring back Robertson and Ottavino and the BP looks a lot better. You can't expect that all the BP arms signed so far will all rebound. You need arms you can count too.

Lugo would have been nice too. But he probably wouldn't have wanted to come back for fear of being put back in the BP. lol.

Plan B for the Mets should be about singing players like Turner, Martinez, Robertson, Ottavino and others with the idea of flipping them for prospects later on in 2024.

Steve said...

When looking at the numbers, didn't the Mets follow this concept during the 2022 (101 win) season. The Mets were second in both average and OBP while middle of the league in HRs. Tom can probably give the details but if I remember correctly, the DH, 3rd, catcher and left had something like a .210 average. The other core five are still here although there are questions. With Chavez returning to the hitting coach role can the core four return to 2022 output?

Alverez will more than improve the catcher position. Fill the other three roles with higher OBP batters with power approaching 50+ combined homeruns as you are suggesting will greatly improve the offense compared to the 2022 benchmark.

Then the pitching side.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, 2026?

You probably really mean 2036.

Stearns may have to wait on starting pitching until “I’m in no rush whatsoever” Yamamoto stops holding up the starting pitcher market, but BP arms can be signed today. Start signing them and making the team look more attractive to a Yamamoto

Mack Ade said...

You have met Mrs. Mack

True story

Before we were married she had a date with a fanatic Mets fan who took her to Shea

He had a leather bound scorebook that he filled each box in IN INK

Around the 7th inning the hot dogs with onions kicked in and nature called

He gave the book and the pen to now my wife and told her to keep it updated while he was gone

Long session for him... around 6 batters

He came back and instead of Sue (who didn't know crap about baseball) intended of writing things like 4-3 or highlighting the diamond where the batters ran, wrote:

DK
DK
DK
DK
DK DK...in ink

He asked her what did that mean and she told him

"don't know "

He never asked her out again



Mack Ade said...

I know the Mets have changed much of their internals but they never made Lugo happy.

He wanted to stay a starter and they said no

Players remember things like this

Mack Ade said...

There will be a rush of top shelf prospects hitting Queens by 2025

Then a few more in 2027

Then crickets

bill metsiac said...

Why isn't Acuña (and for that matter, Vientos) playing Winter ball to get valuable ABs?

Amazin Z said...

It’s almost as Stearns has put all Off Season signings on hold until Yama makes his decision. (Unless you include all the AAAA players and reclamation projects he’s signed). The Royals are even signing good FA’s (Lugo and RP Stratton). FA’s are coming off the board every day now as the FA pool shrinks. SP, RP, Power bat, or Hitter for AVG. he needs to sign some people. Stearns better wake the F up.

Paul Articulates said...

Lots of discussion here about JH Lee as a "miss". He was massively overpaid for what his past numbers delivered. I don't think Mets fans want to be embarrassed again this season by paying huge money for less than huge performance. If they get enough starting pitching and re-sign Pete then I will be happy with a transition season. It is just getting a little worrisome watching some of the starting pitchers come off the board without any mention of the Mets as they wait for a Yamamoto decision.

TexasGusCC said...

If I may take Dave Stearns’ position for a second:
Giolito is still available; as is Montgomery and Snell; Yamamoto is the goal and a secondary goal is his countryman Imangana. If you sign those two, along with Quintana, Senga, and Severino, Megill, Butto, do you need a Plan B?

As for the hitters: until Mauricio got hurt, things were sort of set. Now, we need to see when he will be back. Baty can get a half year uninterrupted, and Vientos a real shot. We know Mauricio is MLB ready but not sure if those guys are. Yes a hitter or two at the most are needed, but let’s see how the winter plays out because as teams like the Mariners, Cubs and Guardians need multiple big bats, there may be opportunities. Only Bellinger is left on the market.

Lastly, all the good relievers are out there. To quote Aaron Rodgers: “Relax”.

Mack Ade said...

Vientos too busy playing the elf at the Christmas party today at Citi

Tom Brennan said...

I wonder if our future Jung Hoo Lee might be…Nick Morabito. I know, I am crazy.

Tom Brennan said...

“In comparison with American Major League Baseball, ESPN reports that the KBO level of play "appears to be somewhere between Double-A and Triple-A, on average, though the best players are more likely to be MLB-quality than your typical Double-A league."”

Viper said...

TexasGus,

I understand that you wait for Yamamoto but why do you have to wait for BP, Montgomery?. The Mets need more than one pitcher, more than one BP arm, Turner?

TexasGusCC said...

Viper, I don’t want to wait on the BP arms, but it seems none of them have come off the board, except for Kimbrel. There’s something holding up that market as well. I don’t count Chafin as a back of the bullpen arm. Not sure what’s going on there, want to give a good baseball executive a chance without doubting the guy right off the bat. Don’t forget, like the Yankees got from the Dodgers, when some of these teams without any 40 man room want to sign a free agent, they’ll have to discount an arm to get something back and not cut someone.

Anonymous said...

Why isn’t Mauricio. Oh never mind.