Paul Articulates – NY Mets player arbitration status

Salary arbitration is an important feature of the MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that allows accomplished players that are under team control to negotiate fair compensation.  

Before we talk about how arbitration affects the 2024 Mets team, here is a quick primer on the process:

From the MLB.com glossary, “Players who have three or more years of Major League service but less than six years of Major League service become eligible for salary arbitration if they do not already have a contract for the next season. Players who have less than three but more than two years of service time can also become arbitration eligible if they meet certain criteria; these are known as "Super Two" players. Players and clubs negotiate over salaries, primarily based on comparable players who have signed contracts in recent seasons.”  

There are deadlines associated with the process.  For this season, players and teams must have exchanged salary figures by January 13, 2024.  By January 29th, if the two sides have not agreed, then the dispute is settled by arbitration hearings that run from the 30th through February 17th.

Based upon service time, seven New York Mets were eligible to go to arbitration:

• Pete Alonso (3rd arbitration year)
• Brooks Raley (2nd arbitration year)
• Joey Lucchesi (3rd arbitration year)
• Drew Smith (3rd arbitration year)
• David Peterson (1st arbitration year)
• D.J. Stewart (Super 2: arbitration year)
• Phil Bickford (Super 2: arbitration year)

Brooks Raley agreed to a 2-year, $10M deal with the Rays before he was acquired by the Mets.  In that deal, there was a club option for $6.5M for 2024 which the Mets have exercised, avoiding arbitration.

D.J. Stewart accepted a 1-year deal for $1.38M in 2024.

That leaves five players that must settle before January 29th of this year or they leave it up to an independent arbiter to decide.

At the top of the list is the center of many conversations to date: Pete Alonso.  This is his final season of “team control”, meaning that he is still obligated to play for the Mets unless released, but becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.  Current estimates put an arbitration settlement above $21M for 2024.  However, many of us have opined that the Mets should have already offered a contract extension to the star to lock him up before becoming one of many in a bidding war for Pete’s talents.  No one really knows what has been discussed between the Mets, Pete, and his agent Scott Boras.  However, an extension will surely be discussed by January 13th as part of the arbitration process.  I am hopeful that they can get a deal done to retain Pete, but it already doesn’t feel very good based on the lack of any news, the involvement of Boras, and the fact that the deadline itself falls on Friday the 13th!

I am very happy that the Mets came to terms with Brooks Raley, who was one of the better performers from last year’s bullpen with a valuable left arm that the Mets sorely need in 2024.  Raley was tops among Mets’ pitchers for hard hit %, meaning that he consistently induces soft contact.  The next two on the list, Lucchesi and Smith are also going to factor heavily into the Mets’ plans this coming season.

Lucchesi has filled the role of long reliever and spot starter for a couple of years, and his starts last year were solid.  In fact he performed well enough in those games to be mentioned among the options for a fifth starter this year along with the likes of Tylor Megill and Drew Peterson.  Like Alonso, this is his final year of team control, so the Mets should consider extending him as well.

Drew Smith is a little tougher call.  He has shown great promise in the last few years, but it has not yet translated into results.  That will cost him in the pre-arbitration negotiation, but will become a bigger dilemma for the Mets front office as they consider what to do after the 2024 season.  Smith has all the “stuff” to convince the Mets to keep him, but has not been able to locate the fastball and mix in the secondary pitches well enough to keep batters off balance.  He threw 56 innings last year with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.  The ERA is in the average range for most relief pitchers, but the WHIP is not good when the primary role of a reliever is to get out of innings without letting people get on base.  In my opinion, Smith is better than Paul Sewald was at this stage.  Sewald got that guidance that put him over the top and Smith needs the same.

David Peterson is good enough to raise our expectations and inconsistent enough to underachieve our expectations.  Only in his first year of arbitration, this player still has a few more years to work things out.  Unfortunately, the Mets as a team seem to be running out of time to put something together that works so hopefully they can convey that sense of urgency into Peterson’s career growth.

Phil Bickford gets the “super 2” designation, meaning that he is in the top 22% of performers in his category.  It must have been a tough year for all relief pitchers.  Like Peterson, he has a ways to go so the Mets will likely give him a low offer that will force things into arbitration.  With a 4.62 ERA, 2:1 K/BB ratio, and a 1.34 WHIP, he was sufficient to fill a role last year when there was a deficit of quality arms in the Mets’ bullpen but not what I would consider a building block for the future.  According to Baseball Savant, he was among the worst on the team for exit velocity allowed for pitchers that faced more than 50 batters.

Circle Friday the 13th of January on your calendar, folks!  That’s when the negotiations begin on our five arbitration decisions.