This week, Nashville will host the MLB winter meetings. This is a week that Mack's writers circled on the calendar some time ago, as there are some very notable things that occur each year at the event.
One thing that will happen on Tuesday is the draft lottery. The eighteen teams that were not in the 2023 playoffs are entered into a lottery to determine the first six picks of the draft. Our New York Mets have a 4.3% chance of winning the first pick given the odds in the lottery, but unfortunately there are penalties associated with their 2023 spending beyond the luxury tax threshold so the best they can get is the seventh pick. The Tuesday event is just the lottery – the actual draft occurs in July, 2024.
Another interesting facet of the meetings is Thursday’s Rule 5 draft. This draft enables teams to “poach” a minor league player from another team that had not protected them with a position on the 40-man roster. For more on that, please refer to my previous article on the subject, “The Rule 5 Draft”.
New rules will be discussed and either enacted or rejected. Last year was a very significant year for rules changes, as the pitch clock, sizes of the first and third base bags, and pickoff attempt limits were imposed with very noticeable impacts on the game. This year should not to be as dramatic, but a slight shortening of the pitch clock will be discussed and the future of “robot umps” in MLB should be a hot topic.
The thing that I most look forward to is the big name free agent signings and trades. Even though the signing period has been open since the World Series ended, the winter meetings are typically the time that some of the off-seasons’ big announcements are made. Teams have been busy up to this point, mostly signing fringe players to minor league deals, offering some contract extensions, and participating in minor trades.
The Mets as you know have been very focused on building up their infrastructure, signing Scott Havens as their President of Baseball Operations for the business side of the team, adding leadership for their scouting and player development organizations, and shoring up the coaching staff. But that doesn’t mean they were inactive on the players side – we have already seen several moves at the marginal end of the player spectrum with some minor league deals, a one-year contract for utility player Joey Wendle, and the addition of an SP5 in Luis Severino. This is the tip of the proverbial iceberg, as there are signs of much bigger deals in the works, some of which may be announced during this coming week.
This is the first off-season of the David Stearns era, and he has a tightrope to walk, balancing the long term competitiveness of the team with the short-term (read 2024) success of the Mets. To date he has been using some of the techniques he learned in Milwaukee, using inexpensive minor league contracts and spring training invites to take a flier on some fringe players. But don’t underestimate his ability to craft the big deals with his new budget. I expect a notable addition or two in the big name category this week.
Another superb thing Stearns has done was to purge the 40-man roster of many of last year’s minor contributors. Many were surprised that the team passed the deadline for protecting players from rule 5 with only 28 players on the 40-man roster. This is a “fresh look” perspective that new leadership can bring to overcome that tendency to over-extend the welcome to players whose value to the team have diminished. For those of you familiar with the “Stockholm Syndrome”, it is a psychology term that describes how prisoners sometimes spend so much time with their captors that they feel empathy towards them. The “Stockholm Syndrome” analogy in baseball is hanging on to players that contributed greatly to the team in the past, but retain their role long after their productivity wanes. Stearns had the independent viewpoint that allowed him to make a more objective assessment and cut loose guys that others couldn’t. Now there is room for rule 5 additions, trades, and free agent acquisitions that build towards the goal of a sustainable winner.
Look for some noteworthy Mets news this week – I am hopeful that it will propel Mets fans out of the negative feelings from a failed 2023 season.
16 comments:
I remain optimistic that 2024 will be a good season for our team
My guess is a quiet week with a max of two Rule 5 relievers coming aboard
Big guys ain't moving until Ohtani is done
Stockholm Syndrome is an excellent perspective. Mets need to rotate the produce, and this year they have done so, as you note.
Let’s win Lotto.
Hopfully the pitch clock will be lengthened by 3-5 seconds. Protect arms, give pitchers a bit more of a breather.
To,,the shortening not lengthiness the pitch clock.
Taylor,Gallo,Giolito,Hicks,Robertson
I’m surprised that no one has spoken about the Kelenic trade to the Braves. Complete highway robbery it was called by Braves fans. The Braves got three players of note, though their value is somewhat low but all have much upside, for two pitchers that just have NEVER produced. If this was fantasy baseball, that trade would be blocked, it’s that stupid.
Yeah, I didn't get that trade that the Mariners made. Somebody up there must think that Kelenic doesn't have the stuff to really make it. I'd have to believe that Gonzales and White were just salary dumps.
They were dumps, but Gonzales is a lefty starting pitcher… that has some value. And White is often injured. I could see White and Kelenic if Seattle was so sour on White getting hurt and still want more than those two AAAA pitchers, but include Gonzales?
Anybody else think Kelenic hits 20 HRs and/or plays GoldGlove defense in LF? Maybe 2-3 years down the line he’s a MVP candidate. Can see it coming just
Things I’ll be looking for these next few weeks:
1. Do the Mets sign two more SP’s or three, and head into the season planning on a 6-man rotation.
2. Do Stearns et al see Nimmo as a CF or corner OF? That decision could be put off a year if they are hoping that Jett or Gilbert can step up to be their CF long-term.
3. Will they bring in another IF - someone like Turner - who can bounce between 2B/3B/DH on a short-term deal - to take some pressure off Mauricio/Baty and add some pop to the lineup, or is Joey Wendle already that guy (better D, minus the pop).
4. How many relievers will they sign to deals of more than one year? They just brought in some projects, and they actually do have a bit of a stable of potential impact relievers down on the farm. Might they roll the dice a bit this year in order to maintain flexibility for those guys’ potential development?
5. Will they trade anyone off the expected 26-man?
(Sorry, forgot to add my name above). Lastly, where can I get some money down on Kelenic making the All-Star team and hitting 5 or more HR against us this season?
OMG Alyssa Rizzo is hot! Too bad they can’t get her as a sideline reporter.
Adam Smith .. good list. I'll add some discussion to it with more questions and my amateur opinions :-)
1) I am hoping for 2. And I am hoping the two are Yamamoto and either Imanaga or Montgomery. The only way I'd like to see 3 is if they sign 'moto, Montgomery AND Imanaga. Other than those three, I am not sure there is a reasonable cost alternative that is any better than the group of Severino, Megill, Luchessi, Butto (and Peterson later). I hope they don't look at Snell.
2) The rumors are that they are looking at an outfield defense upgrade. It will be interesting to see whether that will be a full time starter or a late inning specialist. I think this also works its way into a question about whether Marte will be back as a starter.
3) My thinking is the only way they bring in Turner is as a full time DH and Vientos is out. Turner does not have enough position flexibility to take a roster spot to be a utility guy (IMO).
4) I only hope they sign a couple of established arms that have walk rates less than 15%. Who knows how that bullpen will shake out. I'd like to see Megill moved out there as the long man permanently.
5). Interesting question. I got thinking that if they bring in a starting outfielder (Lee? Gurriel?) that McNeil could be on the block for some young pitching (Seattle??). I am trying to figure out the 26 (really 13) man roster. There are too many bodies now.
I had a number 6 to add to this list a bit earlier, but now I can't remember what that was :-( Getting old suckx.
As for Kelenic, his strikeout rate has remained over 30% and the word is that he can hit fastballs, but cannot handle spin. If that is true, the sliders and curvves will chase him off the field. He does have a huge advantage in Atlanta over Seattle in that he will be protected by the other hitters in that lineup and will probably see better pitches to hit. I doubt he will ever live up to his original hype - that strikeout tendency does not generally get a lot better.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. 😊. A couple of comments.
1. I have a feeling that the three you mentioned are their targets. They’re certainly the three I’m hoping they land. But even if they got two of them, you’d have 2 and possibly 3 Japanese SP’s who are used to getting longer rest, a 35 yr-old Quintana, with some injury history, and Severino, who’s always hurt, who might both be helped by going to a 6-man. If they get two of them (and I agree they should stay far away from the QO guys) I think they would - and should - still go after someone like Lugo and try to maintain a 6-man for most of the season. I actually think that more teams are going to try to go to 6 over the next few years.
2. Agreed. They’re going to bring in a strong defensive OF who can play CF. Not sure either if that’s a starter, but I also think that it will be a 1 or 2-yr deal because I think they want to keep flexibility for (hopefully) both Gilbert and Jett, maybe by the end of this season. I think that a lot depends on whether Baty impresses enough (or the FO decides) to put Mauricio at 2B, making McNeil more of a full time OF. 🤷
5. I’ve been looking at the 13 myself, and since I don’t think they’ll trade McNeil this offseason (his value is down and they very much may need him in ‘24), Vientos’ spot is the big question mark, followed by Stewart. With them both on the 26 (and with Wendle here) there’d be one spot left, which would absolutely have to go to an OF who can play CF. If one or both of them aren’t there, you get more flexibility, and I could see Turner as an option (if Vientos isn’t in their plans) who you can play at 2nd or 3rd with a straight face, DH a lot, provide some veteran leadership for the IF kids (tho Wendle may already be that guy). I think McNeil is a candidate to be traded after ‘24, and I can’t see them trading any of the other core guys now unless it’s for someone they can’t pass up, so a trade from the big club would surprise me. But who the hell know? I’m wrong all the time. Thankfully, we finally have a FO that I trust. The reduction in stress and aggravation is going to add years to my life.
Dessert is on his way.
This Rile 5 is big. We big time.
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