12/16/23

Reese Kaplan -- How to Replace Ronny Mauricio at the Hot Corner


The frustration continues for Mets fans and the media that covers the team.  The front office has made quite a few moves but thus far only one major leaguer in Luis Severino.  The remainder of the choices made by David Stearns are players who have exhibited potential or seem well suited to fringe roles on the major league club.  Even Severino comes with a ton of question marks given the precarious state of his health and what it can do to his quality and quantity of pitching.

Now let's take a longer look at the Ronny Mauricio situation and see how the club can, should and likely will handle it.  There are three approaches here:


Work With In-House Options

Right now the three man race between Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos for who gets assigned the starting job has now become Baty, Vientos and reserve acquisition Joey Wendle.  The questions about the first two are about defense and offense while Wendle is a more accomplished fielder with a track record of hitting but not necessarily enough to maintain a starting role on a post season oriented team.

Brett Baty's numbers are not new nor do they get any better with repeated reading.  His majority assignment of the third base role in 2023 was highly forgettable and frustrating for the poor hitting as much as for the unexpected terrible defense.  Now it could be a case of first year jitters or adjustment to a higher level of competition, but you have to remember that Baty was a top prospect as recently as 2022.  Going into the 2024 season it was assumed he would get the first shot at reinventing himself on the field and at the plate.

Mark Vientos' tale is also well known.  When he finally got reasonable playing time in September he launched six home runs and started to demonstrate the type of bat folks in the minor leagues saw as he ascended from level to level.  After a flat period of adjusting to each new level of pitching he adapted and returned to the solid hitting he'd shown before the promotion.  The question here is whether or not the same will happen in the majors, but the other aspect that stresses on-field management is his subpar defense.  Many feel he's slated to be a Designated Hitter with a batting average in the .270+ area along with 20-30 HR output.  Of course, if anything should happen with Pete Alonso, he would be the first call to man that position.

Joey Wendle was recently profiled here at MacksMets and his contract with the Mets is indeed a good thing.  As a career .262 hitter he even once made the All Star Team in 2021 while playing for the Rays while providing solid defense to accompany his 11 HRs and 54 RBIs.  For backup purposes he's a solid choice and a significant offensive improvement over Luis Guillorme, but he's not at this stage suitable for full time duty at third.


Bring in a Seasoned 3rd Baseman

In this case you'd be looking at someone like Matt Chapman whose high WAR scores are as much about his stellar defense as they are about his run production power.  The issue here with Chapman is his batting average and propensity to strike out.  While the four Gold Gloves he's already earned is impressive, his career .240 batting average is not.  There was an outlier season back in 2019 when he launched 36 HRs and 91 RBIs but the .247 average (a career best!) also included 147 strikeouts.  He has never approached those numbers again and his 2023 season included a .240 average with 17 HRs and 54 RBIs.  He is likely good to pencil in for 20 HRs and 70 RBIs which for a .240 hitter is not all that impressive even with a Gold Glove.  He earned $12.5 million last season and going into his age 31 season he'll be looking for a multiyear deal at a higher annual salary.  If the Mets had a solid offensive game throughout the rest of the lineup he'd be more appealing but he doesn't seem like a great fit who would also block the potential development of Baty and Vientos.

None of the other free agents even equal what Chapman would provide.  Earlier in his career Jean Segura was a solid hitter with modest power and terrific base running ability but now that he's in his mid 30s the lifetime .281 average is the only thing that stands out.  Gio Urshela is inconsistent and several others still looking to play 3B like Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson are at the tail end of their careers.

We don't know what third basemen are available in trades, but you also can't rule out second basemen with Jeff McNeil taking over at the hot corner.  Again, this approach would stifle the Baby Mets but it's a possibility. 


Sign or Trade for a DH Who Has 3B Experience

As much as the Mets supporters would like to see them snag J.D. Martinez as their new DH to give the club the kind of bat they've never had in that role, there are countless volumes of words instead indicating that a Justin Turner reunion is preferred way to go.  There's not questioning the Mets irrational expulsion of Turner earlier in his career when he turned into an All Star bat for the Dodgers and most recently the Red Sox.  At age 39 he's definitely on the last gasp of his career and as expected his defensive game has wilted as he spent more time as a DH.  If you look at his last few years you will see he's still swinging a potent bat.  He split time between DH, 1B and 3B for Boston last season and delivered a .276 average with 23 HRs and 96 RBIs.  That's not too shabby for a guy in his age 38 season.

The thinking here is that bringing in Turner to end his career where it very nearly began could be a smart fit as the team most definitely needs more run production out of the DH spot.  The additional benefit of Turner becoming a Met for the second time is that he can help serve as a mentor to the Baby Mets who would play third base.  If neither of them flourished, then the Mets could actually have Turner substitute at that position though you'd probably figure him for at best a 4-5 day per week player.  

There are others who could fit this role, but at an ending salary and another year older you could likely get Turner for about the same $8.3 million he earned in 2023 given the extra money he received for his contractual buyout.  His 2.1 WAR was good but not spectacular which reflects his lack of defensive numbers to add to what he did with the bat.  Your commitment to Turner would at worst be a one year deal with option for a second.  While the club has intended to groom younger players and not execute win-now options for older players, this singular approach could make sense.

Which of these approaches would work best?  I'm leaning heavily towards the Turner acquisition to let Baty and Vientos slug it out for the third base role.    

10 comments:

Viper said...

I see that Mets fans and front office are starting to warm up to Justin Turner.
He is the logical choice because he can backup 1B, 3B and DH. Not sure if can still play 2B.

TexasGusCC said...

A very sensible and logical move that the Mets have already acted upon, according to MLBTR. Let me be the first to say: I hope it doesn’t happen. We all like to win, I get that. But, the Mets are not complete enough to challenge for a title, so where are we going? The Yamamoto move is sort of a future move and a good one. Yes, the Baby Mets may blow up. But, I would prefer to reload and get under the cap. We can’t keep screwing the pooch here. Penalties on talent are hurtful and we took a shot. It didn’t work. Trade Pete Alonso for arms. If Marte is healthy, trade him too and get under the $277 threshold. See what you have and then go for it better next year when the dead money comes off.

Anonymous said...

This is Tom. The Mets’ big move will be Luis Guillorme

Reese Kaplan said...

The Mets had better add some front line players soon otherwise the fans and media will start firing up the torches and polishing the pitchforks.

Woodrow said...

Chapman, Gold Glove,enough power to bat fifth or sixth.

Anonymous said...

I would try and sign Turner (DH/3rd base) as well as Urshela (2nd/3rd). Move McNiel to RF and trade for Yelich to play LF.
Yelich batting lead off with speed and high OBP with Nimmo batting 2nd would be a phenomenal 1-2 punch to start the game.
Have Baty and Vientos start in the minors if they don’t show up in spring training.
At midseason if the young bucks step up, or we are way out of playoff contention then you trade Urshela and Turner to load up our system a little bit more. That’s what the Royals are doing right now with all their influx of free agent signings. They will sell off at trade deadline and bring in some more young controllable talent for their minor spending spree.

Zozo

Anonymous said...

This is Tom. Zozo, interesting approach.

bill metsiac said...

I agree that Turner is the perfect fit. He fits the role of DH/3B "insurance"/mentor perfectly and will sign a short-term deal that doesn't block the "embryo" Mets (Williams, Acuña, et al) who hopefully will be ML-ready by '25.

Mack Ade said...

I have read all of this and I don't agree with much of it

Baby only counts the first year you come to the majors

These 4 are now grown men and need to play every day

Why do you tell the press you value your prospects and then not start them?

Paul Articulates said...

Great thoughts Reese. So many ways they can play it.
I predict that Wendle outplays them all in the spring but doesn't start, because the Mets need to understand if their prospects can become valuable players. If they do grab Turner for a DH, he and Wendle are good options to man third base in the second half.

It is true that the Mets should not be overpaying for veterans, as it was appropriately pointed out that the overage in the salaries is really hurting them in the draft and the international pool.