Paul Articulates - Heading into the gauntlet

The New York Mets took care of business this week, sweeping the Washington Nationals in a series they needed to sweep.  They now stand at 84-68, tied for the second wild card slot with Arizona and 2 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. 

Now they enter the gauntlet, with their remaining ten games against some very tough competition.  It starts with four home games against the league leading Philadelphia Phillies.  The Mets recently lost their three game series in Philadelphia, but the two they lost could have gone either way.  

The Mets will send Severino, Peterson, and Manaea to the mound in the first three games, and the fourth starter has not yet been named.  The pitching staff for the Mets has been on a remarkable roll, and they will have to bring their best against a Phillies team that has the third-best OPS in the National League (.751) helped by a .425 team slugging percentage.  At least the games are at Citi Field and not in Citizens Bank Park where the fences are among the friendliest in the league.

After that four game series against the Phils, the Mets go on the road for three against the Atlanta Braves and three more against the Milwaukee Brewers.  The Phillies and Brewers have already clinched playoff berths and as we well know, the Braves are hot on our heels for one of the remaining spots.  I guess you could say that the Mets will have to earn their playoff berth.

The Mets are 3-6 against the Phillies so far this year, 5-5 against the Braves, and 0-3 against the Brewers.  It does not look like an easy task, but in baseball momentum means a lot.  The Mets arguably have the strongest momentum of the bunch, but in just the last ten games, all four teams are pretty close.  The Phillies still have a lot to play for, the Braves are desperate to catch up for a wild card slot, and the Brewers may rest some players having already clinched.

Here is what I like about the Mets’ chances:

• The starting pitching.  As mentioned before, they are on a serious roll with not only exceptional stats, but also deep outings lasting seven innings or more.  This is what they needed all year and it showed up in the stretch.

• The relief pitching has also been very good.  Suddenly the relievers are well rested thanks to the starting pitching and when they do come in, they are holding the opposition to very few runs.

• The contributions from many.  Despite the dominant season by Francisco Lindor, this team wins when everyone contributes.  Guys like Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Iglesias, and Mark Vientos are all coming up with plays when we need one.  And how about LuisAngel Acuna?!  Two home runs and a .500 batting average to go with plus fielding while filling the biggest shoes on the team!  Not missing Max Scherzer anymore.

• Nimmo has been invisible since the all-star break, but in the last few games he is getting a lot of barrels.  It was only a matter of time before those hard hits would find grass (or the seats).  JD Martinez is also having some high velocity outs.  If those two start hitting like they are capable it will help propel the team to many more runs.

• Starling Marte is healthy and fresh and he is playing like it.  Six for his last ten, stealing bases, finally patrolling the outfield again like the player he used to be.  This is what we needed in September of 2022, but I’ll take it now.

Here is what I don’t like about the Mets’ chances:

• Francisco Alvarez and Pete Alonso are still chasing too many bad pitches.  They just can’t seem to recognize the breaking pitches and their desire to hit the ball overcomes their swing judgement.  If either or both got hot, it would change the probability of success.  Unfortunately, chasing pitches is not easy to solve with a few adjustments.

• Edwin Diaz is still a great relief pitcher, but he is not what he was before his knee injury.  He gets into ruts where only one of his two pitches seems to work and he overthrows that pitch.  It is still hard to hit, but easy to predict.  That is not desirable late in close games.

• Francisco Lindor needs to lead this team through the ten game stretch.  Unfortunately he tweaked his back, which is one of the most difficult injuries to heal on the fly.  It may have an effect on his swing, his base running, and his defense.

• Truist Park is like a haunted mansion after that horrible season ending series in 2022.  That team headed to Atlanta with a one game lead and the three top pitchers lined up and came home devastated.  This Mets team is very different than the 2022 version and so is Atlanta, but it is hard to ignore the impact that stadium will have on the team’s state of mind.

The interesting part of this ten game gauntlet is that the outcome will not only be determined by the Mets’ play, but also the play of the other three teams vying for those last three spots.  As of last night, the Mets were tied with Arizona and only 2.5 games behind the Padres.  

The Mets hold the tiebreaker against both clubs based upon their head-to-head season records.  Arizona has been stumbling against the Rockies and they also have a gauntlet to run with series against the Brewers and Padres.  The Padres have to play the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks.  

I think we are all hoping the Mets will prevail, so I won’t ask you “if”, but rather “how”.  Who do you think will be the player that has the highest impact on the Mets success in this 10 game gauntlet to end the season?