Reese Kaplan -- The Hazy 2025 Starting Rotation Picture

During the Mets powerful 10-0 drubbing of the Washington Nationals on Wednesday night brought with it a piece of horrific medical news when it was revealed that long disabled and previously dominant starter Christian Scott is now aiming to have Tommy John Surgery.  All of a sudden that news kind of throws the 2025 pitching picture into a haze.

Stepping back for a moment, know that going into next season the Mets have Kodai Senga, David Peterson and Tylor Megill available to start games.  Converted starter turned excellent reliever Jose Butto is another possibility for the rotation. 

Then there’s Brandon Sproat whose late introduction to AAA has seen him face more adversity than he faced as he soared through the farm system.  During his rookie minor league year he started off in Brooklyn after college days, then onto Binghamton and finally Syracuse. 

In Brooklyn he started 5 out of 6 games in which he appeared.  He was fanning 11.7 per 9 IP but alarmingly walking 5.7.  Still, a 2-1 record with a 1.07 ERA suggested there was a lot more good than bad here.

The bulk of his season was spent in Binghamton where the Rumble Ponies enjoyed his 4-1 record over 11 starts.  He was still whiffing over 11 batters per 9 IP but got the walks down to a terrific 2.2 over the same span.  His 2.45 ERA was more than double what he’d done in Brooklyn but still was among the finest in the AA league. 

Syracuse, unfortunately, did not go so well.  In his thus far 6 starts he is facing a huge drop in his strikeouts to just over 6 per 9 IP and the walks rose but this time to 3.7 which is borderline acceptable.  However, in 26.2 IP he gave up 31 hits and his WHIP was an ugly 1.575.  His record upstate is 1-1 but it’s accompanied by a very ugly 7.43 ERA. 

Going forward everyone certainly hopes that Sproat returns to the dominance he exhibited in A and AA, but it’s highly unlikely he will come north with the big club until he shows he has fixed what’s gone wrong and pitches competitively in AAA.

Consequently, the Mets are a bit thin in the pitching department right now for next season.  If they chose to move Butto into the rotation along with latecomer Megill, that still leaves them with just 4 starters.  That suggests trades and free agency will most definitely need to be explored.  The three in-house options are Sean Manaea (with an opt-out), Jose Quintana and Luis Severino.  The latter two are slated for free agency when the World Series ends. 

On the free agent side of the agenda, Corbin Burnes is the big name and David Stearns has close familiarity with him having been GM in Milwaukee.  There are others, including the likely opt-out of Blake Snell, starter Jack Flaherty and starter Max Fried.  Aside from the joy of giving the Braves a bit of a jolt if they nabbed Fried, the others are certainly credible arms that will come at a hefty price. 

The question facing the Mets in terms of spending big is whether they go after retaining Pete Alonso, hitting the stratosphere with Juan Soto or securing an annual long term pay rate of $25-35 million.  If they don’t retain Alonso, the suddenly at least average defense from Mark Vientos could cross the diamond to man 1B and creating budget priced vacancies at 2B and 3B for Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuna.  It would still leave the outfield rather empty but could free up money to spend.

Sometimes it’s not easy being a Mets fan.