Paul Articulates – More on the numbers

Last week I published an analysis of the Mets’ playoff chances based upon a number of factors that included teams’ records, their home field advantage, and their momentum.  It met with many different comments, from full support to total rejection, as fans loaded up on the analytical and emotional sides of a baseball projection.  I loved the dialogue that ensued, so it needed a follow-up.

Tuesday I re-ran the numbers using the same formulas but updated results.  As can be expected, the results changed because teams heat up and cool down without warning. This is what I think attracts everyone that reads this blog to the game of baseball.  It is driven by skill, but is such a difficult game to master that unexpected turns occur frequently.

Last week, the formula had the Mets falling just short of a playoff berth.  This week, due to momentum swings with the D-backs and the Braves, the Mets are projected to tie for the second wild card berth!  Now both the numbers and our emotion-driven hopes are aligned.

Now this is just a prediction, not a certainty.  Things that look real turn into fantasy, and dreams sometimes come true.  As of Monday night, based upon the Pythagorean formula, the season will end with the Padres on top of the wild card standings with 90 wins, with the Mets and Diamondbacks tied at 89.  The all-pitch, no-hit Braves fall to 87 wins and lick their wounds during an off-season of uncertainty.

The Cubs beat the Dodgers with PCA patrolling a lethal outfield, but can’t amass more than 83 victories, so they fall below the Braves in the wild card race.  Oh, if the Mets only had PCA in their potent outfield – just think about what could have been!

But this article is not so much about analytics as it is about “fanalytics”.  The baseball season is rich with emotion as we live and die with every at-bat in the playoff races.  We as Mets fans are very fortunate to be part of one of those seasons where every game matters, every start matters, every play matters, and the outcome can literally turn on a single pitch.  Witness the game yesterday where the Mets were stymied for eight innings, but with a single swing of Francisco Lindor’s MVP bat on an 0-2 count, their fortunes changed.  Boom-Boom, out go the lights! (Pat Travers).

A great moment, but beware: the Mets have a long history of building their fans’ expectations but crushing them in the end.  It doesn’t always happen, as the miracle Mets of 1969 and the best team in baseball in 1986 would attest.  If you are a Mets fan AND you have a sense of humor (must have both, not just one), then I would strongly recommend the book, “So May Ways to Lose” by Devin Gordon.  This book is a great read, and brings you through the folly, and the reward, of being a Mets fan from their inception to the present day. Gordon will bring you to tears of joy and tears of agony as he explains why the Mets are the “best worst team in sports”.

We are in a race that will define this team for years to come.  Has David Stearns masterfully manipulated the roster to build the winner, or has he watched a called third strike in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded?  

I thank all of you for sticking with this team through thick and thin.  Every day spans the "thrill of victory through the agony of defeat" as old-school Wide World of Sports viewers would say.

It will be an exciting conclusion, and as Mack himself said the other day in a comment, “I have been a Mets fan since 1962 and I can count on my hand how many seasons have excited me more than this one.”  Enjoy the ride, and Let's Go Mets!