Reese Kaplan -- 25 Games Left to Determine Progress or Failure

So the calendar flipped yesterday to September 1st and as the Mets won their series against the White Sox they prepared for the final 25 games home and away for the remainder of the 2024 regular season.

Moving forward the club has three home games against the Boston Red Sox, a day off, then three home games against the Cincinnati Reds.  Next they fly north of the border for three more games against the Toronto Blue Jays, another day off, followed by a visit to the house of horrors AKA Citizens Bank Park in the city of brotherly love to square off against the first place Philadelphia Phillies.  Then they return home for three against the Washington Nationals followed by not three but four against the Phillies.  They need their September 23rd day off to recharge before heading to Georgia for three against the Atlanta Braves followed by the final road trip of the regular season with a reunion of sorts for David Stearns as they finish the year in Milwaukee for the last three games. 

So as of August 31s the Mets hold a record of 72-64.  That’s a .529 winning percentage when extrapolated would translate into a final Won/Loss tally of 86-76.  That’s a winning record for the season but not likely enough to make it into the wildcard round of the playoffs.

Suppose the Mets went on a wild hot streak during this 11th hour gasp at the playoffs and finished September with a record of 18-7.  Depending on whether they won or lost on Sunday afternoon, the Mets would then have finished the year with 90 wins.  That number would seem to be the bare minimum to achieve prospective entry into the wildcard round.  Of course, it also presumes that the Braves, Padres and other contenders for that spot go into a tailspin while the Mets demonstrate they are a better team when it really matters.

Right now it doesn’t seem entirely likely for the Mets to reel off that kind of performance when 10 of the final 25 games are against the Phillies and Braves.  Now it’s possible once the Phillies clinch they rest many of their regulars which might make the competition a bit more even than it would be if they faced the normal starting pitching rotation and regular lineup.  You can’t hope for any help of that kind from the Braves as they are also scrambling to make it into October. 

Suppose the Mets do make it into the playoffs.  Would that be a crowning achievement for David Stearns, Carlos Mendoza and Steve Cohen?  Some would heartily say yes, some would condemn it as lucky leftovers and others would take the, “It depends how far they go!” attitude.  Given the horrific performances from various times by starting pitchers, relief pitchers, slumping hitters and injuries keeping people away from the playing field, it would seem to be a pretty significant achievement when back in May and early June folks (myself included) were ready to do a wholesale selloff at the end of July.  I have personally moved into that mid range approval but not having bought into all yay or all nay until I see how they progress in the playoffs.

If they do not make the playoffs which is certainly possible, I would not write it off as a wasted season.  The club saw a great many positives like the unexpected years from Sean Manaea, David Peterson, Mark Vientos, Jose Butto, Dedniel Nunez and others.  Not making the playoffs in a strange way makes it a little bit easier to part with players when the World Series ends.  If they were all the right answers to the won/lost record then the club would have progressed further. 

For now, however, I am temporarily taking off my pessimistic pith helmet and play New York Mets fan, rooting for improbable victories, counting on miraculous moments and hoping to see postseason baseball in which the Mets are playing and not merely sitting on the sidelines watching.