The Mack Report – ROY, Prospects #26-30

The Mack Report


November 16, 2010



National League Rookie Of The Year Voting: - #1 Buster Posey, #2 Jason Heyward, #3 Jaime Garcia, #4 Gaby Sanchez, #5 Neil Walker, #6 Starlin Castro, #7 Ike Davis, #8 Jose Tabata, #9 Jonny Venters



Building the 2012 Team:

26. 3B Zach Lutz – 25/yrs. old - As you can see in the below listed notes I made this year, Lutz is one year away from graduating to the majors; howver, he is totally blocked by David Wright. There is no way Davis is ready to move to first base, even if Ike Davis went along with it… so, that makes Lutz serious trade bait. Remember, we got to the same place last year with Shawn Bowman. Look for the media department to pump up the volume on this kid.


2011: Buffalo


2012: New Team

Notes on Lutz:


1-1-10: - I have never met anyone in the Mets organization that isn’t high on this kid. Lutz’s pro career spans three years at three levels and he has a combined .438 slugging percentage and an .823 OPS. The srtange part is the lack of press he has been getting. If we assume he hits at the same pace in Binghamton this upcoming season, and he plays the season at 24 years old, and he plays 3B, where the hell does he go? I expect to start seeing him play second base soon.


2-10-10 - Zach Lutz – nothing wrong here, either… Lutz is showing the minor league brass that they just might have three major league third basemen in their organization… hit .284/.381/.441/822 for Lucy this year and will join most of his 2009 teammates with the B-Mets this season. Remember this name.


4-22-10: - Stock Up: We talked yesterday about the fact that the Mets have solved their first base problems for the next 5+ years. It’s also true that they don’t need a new third baseman during that same period, but the fact remains that there is a new one developing down on the farm and we might see him branching out to a new position someday to hopefully make this team both as the backup to David Wright, and a quality power utility bat.


5-10-10: - Stock Up: Lutz is one of those minor leaguers that doesn’t seem to get any press, but just goes out and does his job every night. And, don’t be fooled by that baby face… the kid’s got some real power! Lutz was a 5th round pick in 2007 and has produced well in Brooklyn (2008: .333/.442/.514/.956) and St. Lucie (2009: 11-HR, 62-RBI, .822-OPS). The soon-to-be 24-year old (June 3) continues to develop power and currently leads the Eastern League in both home runs (8) but also the best HR-AB ratio (13.13). ETA: 2011


5-24-10: - Stock Up: Lutz is one of those minor leaguers that doesn’t seem to get any press, but just goes out and does his job every night. And, don’t be fooled by that baby face… the kid’s got some real power! Lutz was a 5th round pick in 2007 and has produced well in Brooklyn (2008: .333/.442/.514/.956) and St. Lucie (2009: 11-HR, 62-RBI, .822-OPS). The soon-to-be 24-year old (June 3) continues to develop power and currently leads the Eastern League in both home runs (8) but also the best HR-AB ratio (13.13).


5-26-10: - 3B Zach Lutz placed on 7-day Disabled List retroactive to May 21 with a left foot fracture.


7-17-10: - it’s not that Zach Lutz did anything special on Saturday. What he did was simply play. Lutz was on his way to a great season with Binghamton (8-HR, 17-RBI, .896-OPS in 126-AB), when he broke his ankle. No one expected him back this quick, but, you know Zach. Anyway, he did go 1-3 for the GCL Mets on his first rehab day and we expect him back in the B-Mets lineup this time next week.


7-23-10 – The Mets top third base prospect is now rehabbing with the GCL Mets and got back into gear on Friday. He belted a 2-run homer, knocked in a total of four runs, and went 3-5 in their win. I’m sure he will be returning Binghamton sometime next week, if not sooner. The most important thing about his return is it comes just when the Mets need another trading pawn to hopefully pull off a pitching deal before the deadline.


8-1-10: - Lutz was having a great year before he wound up on the disabled list. Well, he’s been back for five games and now has five home runs in that span, which included two on Sunday. Lutz is one of those secondary prospects we always talk about when we discuss the Mets minor league system. He has a lifetime .285 professional BA goin into this year, and showed the first sign of power last season for St. Lucie (11-HR, 62-RBI). This season, he had 14-HR in 170-Abs and currently has a .612 slugging percentage and 1.028OPS at the AA level. What all this means is the Mets may wind up with a hell of a third base prospect in 2012, esecpailly if he aces AAA next season.


8-10-10 - The Mets have some decisions to make about a prospect that plays only one position which simply is not available on Roosevelt Avenue. 3B Zach Lutz has the talent to play MLB ball and his ETA is 2012 at the latest. He’s going to quickly learn what Shawn Bowman came to realize a year ago… his baseball future is probably not as a Mets. David Wright is going nowhere, and now that Ike Davis is at first base, he’s not even going to that position. Wright is projected as the Mets third sacker through the 2019 season, so whoever is going to dethrone King David someday is probably in middle school as we write. Lutz is a hitter, and his recent injury simply was a broken bone, not a series of nagging injuries. He wasted little time upon his return and let everybody know right away that he was back by hitting seven home runs in his first six games back. For the season, with three teams, he’s hitting: .280/.393/.593/.985 in 189-AB, with 16-HR and 37-RBI. Lutz turned 24 this past June and, if it wasn’t for his recent hiccup, he would have been once of the major names bantered around before the trade deadline. There doesn’t seem to be any plans to move him a round on the field, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got an invite to Queens in September, simply to start showing him off. Regardless, watch for more press on a definite trade bait.


8-30-10: - Stock Up: The Mets top third base prospect, Zach Lutz, went 2-4 on Sunday, which included a two-run home run, his 18th of the season. His combined minor league stats this year are now: .283/.380/.561/.941. We’ve talked about Lutz many times this season, especially the fact that he only plays one position, which happens to be the most blocked in Mets history. Lutz is a hell of a minor league hitter, but he’s never going to move David Wringt off of third base in Queens. Concervatively, his ETA would be September 2011, so it will be interesting to see what the Mets do with him in the off-season. No, please, not another person trying to play second base…


10-8-10: - I think we just finished watching Zach Lutz become a full fledged prospect in 2010. Now, all the Mets have to do is find a place to play him. He will obviously do Buffalo in 2011, but, sadly, he will probably go the route of Shawn Bowman since he is boxed out by King David. This is one of the new General Manager's prime trade bait in the off-season.

27. RP Ryan Fraser – 22/yrs. old – Frazer impressed everyone in the organization with his all-star season in 2010 with Brooklyn. Fraser told me in an earlier interview that there has been some talk of turning him into a starter in 2011; however, for all I know that came from the departed Rick Waits. I’m sure the new Veeps all realize that the 2011 Mets pen will be the weakest link, and I expect guys like Frazer to be kept in the pen… which would be just fine with me/ There’s no reason not to move the kids a couple of pegs in the spring.


2011: In the St. Lucie pen


2012: Binghamton pen



Notes Past on Ryan:


7-22-10 – Fraser is one of those newbie draft picks that we all don’t know much about, but I can tell you this. He’s off to a rocket start at Coney Island. The 6-3 righty Fraser threw his fifth save of the season last night, which brought his seasonal stats to: 11-G, 0-1, 0.63, 0.83, and an incredible 23-K in 14.1-IP. Definitely someone we need to learn more about.


8-1-10: - Frase is one of this year’s draft picks, who’s working as the Borkklyn Cyclone closer. The kid is off to a tremendous start. Last night, he pitched another scoreless ninth inning in his 15th game this season and he still has only given up one earned run all year (20.0-IP). Add to that 0.45, 0.85, 27-K, only 9-BB, and a BABIP of .216… well, as we said before, nice start…


10-5-10: - 2011 Forecast: - Fraser seems to be a very confident young man who has the world ahead of him. It will be interesting to see how the Mets handle him in the Intruction League this month. This would be a good time to stretch him out if they have plans to return him to a starting role next season. Where would he start? It's pretty crowded from Lucy to Brooklyn, so who the heck knows? My guess, if he's a starter: a return to Brooklyn. If a closer: Lucy.

28. RP Brad Holt – 24/yrs. old – If I still ranked Holt as a starter, he would be 68th in the system. Here, I rank him as a reliever, something not confirmed, and maybe very premature, but definitely something someone should try real soon. I can’t find a rotation slot at any level to give this guy another shot in 2011, yet, he could offer a future Mets team an exciting, and very talented option in the pen. One caveat… I talked to someone this week who told me Brad was abruptly removed from his AWL roster and sent home. I asked the person why and he said “you’ll have to find out that on your own, Mack”. Hmm.. details at eleven.


2011: St. Lucie – Binghamton pen


2012: Mets pen


My 2010 notes on Brad:


5-29-10: - Brad Holt got one more shot at starting last night and he past the test. I remember talking to Rick Waits out on the back mounds about Holt in the spring of 2009 and he told me that the emphasis last year would be on creating secondary pitches for Holt. I left that day thinking his ERA would be up for 2009 (which it was) simply because you’re going to have to throw these new pitches during game time condiditons. Well, it hasn’t worked, and now Holt’s velocity on his fastball is in question. Listen, if you’re a one pitch pitcher, it better be a fastball… and if it’s a fastball, you’re a bullpen pitcher… and if you’re a one pitch fastball pitcher with lost velocity… well, you’re playing in the Central Park League.


6-23-10: - Well, sending him back to St. Lucie doesn’t seem to be the answer to Holt’s woes. He pitched last night, giving up five runs, four earners, in 4.0-IP. That’s a 9.00 ERA, still up in the range of his 10.20 in Binghamton. Only two strikeouts and eight hits against him; yes, eight hits in four innings. Boy, if there was ever a pitcher that needs to be shut down…


6-30-10 from: - Holt had a rare good outing Tuesday night, though it was at the A+ level, at least one level below where he should be dominating at this stage in his professional career. Stats were: 5.0-IP, 1-ER, 2-H, 1-WP, 5-K, and still 5-BB. This is the best he’s been all year long and the last thing we should be applauding is five walks and one wild pitch in five innings, but in his case, we’ll take what we can right now. Holt’s A+ record now is 1-1, 5.00… combined A+/AA: 2-6, 9.00. Far from prospect material.


7-17-10: - look, it’s not every day that you get a chance to write something good about a Brad Holt outing. The young man did good last night, going: 5.0-IP. 1-ER, 7-K, 3-BB… forget the yearly stats; we’ll take one good outing and take it from there. BTW… the word from the Mets pitching coaches is there really isn’t anything wrong with the kid’s velocity, or mechanics. He simply is pitching like shit this year. Regarding last night, we’ll take it.


8-4-10: - Holt got off to a decent start last night, but, in the end, this was just another bad outing in a series of many this season. 4.2-IP, 5-R, 4-ER, 2-BB, 2-HBP. He’s started 10 games for the B-Mets (1-5, 10.20) and now he’s 2-5, 5.85 for St. Lucie… add to that a 6.21 ERA last year for Binghamton, and one must now question whey he remains in the rotation. Everyone around him says that Holt’s velocity remains high, but this is a one pitch pitcher that tends to be dominate in the first two inning pitched. They call this… a reliever.


8-21-10: - Stock Down: - SP Brad Holt pitched again Friday night for St. Lucie and didn’t fair well: 5.1-IP, 5-H, 3-ER, 6-K, 5-BB, 3-WP. Holt’s A+ stats this year are 2-7, 6.26, 1.79. These look great compared to his AA stats ( 1-5, 10.20). It’s late in the season and there shouldn’t be much movement in players anymore, so it’s safe to assume that Holt will finish this season as a rotational pitcher for Lucy. The ex-suppliment 1st rounderhas been around long enough now to have developed something other nthan his fastball, which is obviously being sat on. The three wild pitches are simply embarrassing at this point. Mets minor league pitching coach guru has said numerous times that there is nothing mechanically wrong with Holt’s delivery, so one tends to start realizing that this looks to be another wasted high round pick. I’m sure the Mets will move him to the pen next year, especially since he’s not ready for AA, and there are plenty of more successful starters in Savannah and Brooklyn that deserve their shot. Shame. I thought this was a live one.

29. SP – Robert Carson – 22/yrs. old - I’ve been up and down on Carson. He always has been the kind of starter that looks faster than he always is. He pitches ‘heavy” and his movement makes a batter think the ball is coming in around 97-98, but it’s really only 90-92, with an occasional 94. He’s had some hiccups going to new levels, but he still finishes up each level on the upside. Not throwing the kind of strikeouts everyone thought he would (99K/135.0IP in 2010). Robert is going to have to pitch lights out in 2011 to keep out of the pen in 2012.


2011: Will return to Binghamton to start the season


2012: Buffalo rotation


My 2010 notes on Robert:


1-1-10 Forecast: - Carson would have been ranked higher if he finished the season strong, but he didn’t. The Mets should have bumped him to St. Lucie at least two months prior to the end of the season, but they didn’t, and that could have been hanging over Carson. There’s a hell of a lot of talent here along with his confidence and bravado. I look for a tremendous season at St. Lucie in 2010.


5-22-10: Carson has put together three decent starts coming into Friday night, after starting the season all over the place. He did give up 12 hits Friday night, but his overall stats were impressive: 7.1-IP, 2-ER, 3-K. His ERA is now down to 4.95 from a year high of 81.00 on April 15.


5-22-10: - SP Robert Carson: Carson also got off to a bad start, especially his second outing of the year (0.2-IP, 6-ER, 81.00). The good news is, in his last three outings, Carson has stats of: 16.1-IP, 5-ER, 12-Ks. His last outing on May 17 was especially hot, striking out nine in 5.0-IP. Carson is 21-years old and, like Familia, projects out as a possible 2013 starter for the Mets


6-17-10: - A+ SP Robert Carson had another great outing, throwing 6..0 scoreless innings, giving up only two hits and striking out seven. His ERA is now below five, and he's given up only 2-ER in his last three starts (19.0-IP). This is real good news folks and there actually is a chance you may see him move on to Binghamton at some point this season.


6-30-10: - Carson did everything he could to throw a shutout Monday night… his first seven innings were close to perfect, but he eventually tired in the 8th inning, giving up four runs (7.2-IP, 4-ER, 9-H, 4-K, 1-BB). He did get the victory (6-4), and his ERA ended up at 4.54. There’s been a bunch of negativity in the scouting world involving Carson… many question whether he has that “something special”needed to make it someday in the Bigs. No one has every questioned his confidence (his Facebook name is Robert “Imdestinedforgreatness” Carson.) Let’s hope this is another sign that his game is returning.


7-4-10: - Carson continued Sunday night putting his season back together... 7.0-IP, 2-ER, 7-K, 1-BB... ERA down to 4.37. That translates to a 3.41 ERA over the last 10 starts, which, if that was his seasonal stats, he would already be on is way to Binghamton.


9-1-10 – Stock Down – Look, no matter how we break this down, Robert Carson has not progessed enough this past season to be currently considered a top pitching prospect. He was absolutely lit up last night, going 5.0-IP, 9-H, 7-ER, 5-K, 2-BB, 1-WP. His Binghamton ERA is now 8.74, and, if you add that to his 4.17 in Lucy, the year looks like: 8-11, 5.74., with only 97-K in 131.2-IP, plus 55-BB. This hasts not been a great year for three of the Mets top so-called pitching prospects (Carson, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt) and the season seesm to be coming to an end at the right time for Robert.


In 2010, Carson had various levels of struggles. His St. Lucie stint (7-5, 4.17, 69-K, 86.1-IP) was so-so at best and most people thought he got his promotion to Binghamton because he was the lesser of five evils. At Binghamton, he really pitched badly and ended the season 1-6, 8.32, and injured.


2011 Forecast: - The Mets have already announced that Carson will pitch winter ball in Arizona. You and I should be so lucky after a year like this. Carson earns this for one reason; his fastball can sit in the 93-95 range. For this reason alone, the Mets will continue to try and get this "very confident" young man to develop the control and accuracy needed to at least excell in the pen. Carson will repeat the Binghamton rotation if everything goes well in the winter.

Michael G. Baron

30. RP – Ryota Igarashi – 32/yrs. old – thought I’d throw this name in just in case someone was falling asleep. Of cource, there’s no suck thing as a 32-year prospect, but Igarashi did just get his feet wet last year, and he did end the season at AAA. This one’s easy. He has a year left on his contract and he will easily win a pen slot in Queens come spring training, if for no other reason than the fact that there will be multiple holes there at the start of the season.


2011: Mets pen


2012: Same same


So…


Here’s what our rosters look like so far for the 2011 season, based on 2012 need:



Buffalo (8): Rotation: (1) - SP Jenrry Mejia

Relievers: (1) – Manny Alvarez

Catchers: (0) -

Infielders: (4) – 2B Josh Satin, SS Reese Havens, IF Jordany Valdespin, 3B Zach Lutz
Outfielders: (2) – Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis


Binghamton (6): Rotation: (2) – Jeurys Familia, Robert Carson
Relievers: (3) – Nick Carr, Brant Rustich, Brad Holt
Catchers: (0) -
Infielders (1) – 3B, Wilmer Flores
Outfielders (0) -

St. Lucie (7): Rotation (2) – Matt Harvey, Yohan Almonte
Relievers (2) – Eric Goeddel, Ryan Fraser
Catchers (0) –
Infielders (0) –
Outfielders (3) – Cesar Puello


Savannah (4): Rotation: (1) – Greg Peavey
Relievers: (0) –
Catchers: (0) -
Infielders: (1) – 3B Aderlin Rodriquez
Outfielders: (2) – Darrell Ceciliani, Javier Rodriguez