Mack – Q&A’s – First Pick in Draft, Luis Guillorme, Revisit Prediction, Top 5 Prospect Pitchers, Astros

Harry asked:  Mack, who would you pick in the first round of June's draft?

            Mack - Thanks for the question Harry.

First. This might be the deepest draft, talent wise, since the early 2000s. We should get four quality picks in the first four rounds.

Second. You never approach a draft by having a specific position in mind, especially since the player picked isn’t going to make it to the majors until around four seasons in the minors.

You pick the spoken about often 'best player available' at the time you make the pick.

And third. You do your due diligence and make sure this kid is going to sign with you.           

In the case of the Mets, 18 teams are going to pick before you do. It is impossible to determine your pick until the ones above you are made.

I will say this... my tie breaker would be a power starter. The system is weak in the lower levels for this position and I would make a velo pitcher as my tie breaker.

Frank S. asks:  Mack, do you see Luis Guillorme ever cracking the starting lineup for the Mets?

           Mack  - Thanks for the question, Frank.

Luis has done a great job in becoming a valuable member of the Mets 25-man squad. He consistently hit over .300 the past two seasons at the AAA level and raised his major league bating average from .209 (2018) to .246 (2019). Add to that his plus defense and there is no better infielder in the chain that can currently back up the starters.

But look at the math. We have a future HOFer at second, a rising star at short (Amed Rosario), and an all-star at third (Jeff McNeil). Luis’ main position is short and he also has to deal with the fact that Andres Gimenez is right around the corner.

Adding to that, his utility position may also be in jeopardy after the Mets signed veteran infielder, Eduardo Nunez, to a minor league contract.

To answer your question, no I don’t, and since he is turning 25 this season, he may be best served being traded after this upcoming season to a team that will give him a fair shot at starting.

Noel asked:  Morning Mack. You have been a real Debbie Downer in the past when it comes to predicting where our beloved Mets will finish in 2020. I seem to remember you predicting a 4th place finish. Now, with others saying that the Mets may have the best overall lineup in baseball, do you still stand by the 4th place prediction?

           Mack: Thanks Noel for a good question.

I may be wrong, but off the top of my head I think I said they will be fighting it out with the Phillies for a 3^rd place finish.

Lineup projections means nothing. Results matter. And for every plus like what Pete Alonso did in 2019, there is an Edwin Diaz blowup to balance it off.

It always comes down to injuries and it is hard for me to believe that the Mets rotation will have another injury free season.

I stand by my prediction of Atlanta and Washington going to the playoffs as division winner and wild card #1 and the rest is up for grabs.

One new prediction. Watch for wins by Miami in key division games that would determine the fate of the wide card #2 pick.

Matt S. asked:  Mack, who do you, right now, consider the top 5 Mets starters in the chain… and in order?

            Mack – Another good question.

            First, let’s put the elephant back in the field to feed… I do not currently rank the most talked about ‘prospect’ these past few weeks… 16-year old Robert Dominguez. Sure he hit 99 but I’m not sure he hit the barn with those pitches. He hasn’t thrown one professional pitch and comes with no ‘cred’. I hope he quickly runs up the chain, but not yet.

1.     Thomas Szapucki  -  I never doubted his ability. All he needs to do is stay healthy and this is a lefty Jake deGrom in the making. He has started in 33 minor league games and has a combined 2.42/1.10 stat line over 4 seasons. He will be ready in 2021.

2.     Matthew Allan – big time draft pick last year… pitched in 6 games (5 starts) last year for the GCL team and Brooklyn, posting a 2.67/1.49 stat line. 14-Ks in 10.3-IP, but also 5 walks. Needs to work on that. Will be 19 years old this season and my hopes is he will pitch in only 3 more minor league seasons and will be ready in 2023.

3.     Josh Wolf – The other big pitcher in last year’s draft. Will be 19 this season. Pitched in 5 GCL games last season: 3.38, 1.25, 8-IP, 12-K, 1-BB. Would love to see him in Columbia this spring but that might also be a stretch. Could also be ready in 2023.

4.     Jordan Humphreys – Like Szapucki, only injuries stands in the way of this guy. Lost the entire 2018 season to TJS. Prior to that, had a remarkable season for Columbia (11-starts, 10-1, 1.42/0.72, 80-K, 69.2-IP). Pitched 2 rehab innings last season for the GCL team. Have no idea where he will open up at. Rave reviews of his off-season progress.  

5.     Kevin Smith – The 6-6 lefty, out of Georgia, has a 2-season stat line of 2.76/1.18, with 158 strikeouts in 140,7-IP. Will pitch 2020 as a 23-year old. ETA could be sometime next season.

Willie B. asked:  Mack, how do you see the 2020 season working through the Astros mess?

Mack – The Houston Astros cheating is tragic, both to the game and the pitchers that had their stats bloomed due to facing this team. There are actual pitchers that were demoted after ‘failing’ to get the Houston batters out.

I am afraid we haven’t seen the last of this. Fan reaction in opposing home fields will be deafening. And, I expect the amount of HBP efforts by the pitchers that had bad outings against the Astros to increase dramatically.

2020 could be ugly in the American League.