Tom Brennan: WHAT TO DO WITH STEVE MATZ IN 2020

PC - Ed Delany

I always like to start out articles like the following with this reality - spring training performances can greatly impact team decisions in which players end up in which role.

After a very strong minor league career (2.40 ERA over 398 IP) which was interrupted by a very lengthy TJS hiatus, Steve Matz started his career with the New York Mets like a ball of fire.

The lefty in fact started his Mets career with a 4-0 season in 2015, and a 7-1 record through May 25, 2016, with an ERA of 2.54 to that point in his career through 78 IP.  And that was despite allowing 7 earned runs in 1.2 innings in his first start of 2016.

He looked like he was on his way to greatness after his 8 shutout innings on May 25, 2016 boosted his record to 7-1.

Since then?  A completely different picture, sad to say.

20-35, 4.70 ERA over his past 471 IP.  

Yes, 2019 was somewhat better, at 11-10, 4.21 - not great, but decent.

In 2018, a better ERA but it did not show in his W-L record: 5-11, 3.97.

And, for a guy who allowed just 17 homers in his 398 minor league innings, an extremely low rate (HR every 23.4 IP), he allowed a drastically higher 52 homers in his 314 innings spanning 2019 and 2020, a homer every 6 innings.  

He also, in his career, has found the first inning  to be extraordinarily challenging:

100 innings, 6.50 ERA, and an awful 24 HRs.  In 2019 it was no different: 6.21 ERA.

He's been much better in his career innings 2 through 5: 

A 3.30 ERA over 368 innings, with just 43 HRs allowed (a HR every 8.6 IP).

And much better at home (3.47 ERA) than on the road (4.67).  And none of that was due to banging garbage cans and buzzers in Houston.

And a statistically different level of performance in day games (3.17 ERA) vs. night games (4.53 ERA) in his career.

My thoughts?

He's been a real puzzle.  But he knows the first inning has been his nemesis and is focused on fixing it.  (Cue in the chin music, I'd say).

He seems like he can be really good - his 11-1 career start strongly hinted at such.

Perhaps he is his own worst enemy - perhaps he should be a lot closer to his 11-1 career start than to his subsequent 20-35 performance.

In the battle for the 5th starter's spot, one must consider if he could be effective in relief - his 6.50 career ERA in the first inning is not a strong indicator of what would be a shut-down reliever.

So, competing against Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation, where does Steve end up?  Rotation or bullpen?

We'll find out this spring.  Only Wacha has a fair number of relief innings in his career (29 IP), but has a 6.52 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in those relief outings, so no one will confuse his relief efforts with those of the great John Smoltz.

My advice to Mr. Matz?  

Steve, if you start for the Mets in 2020, attack the first inning like it is your own.  Everything will then probably fall nicely into place.

While his role in 2020 is up to Luis and Brodie, my guess?

Will he relieve, have to figure out how to do it effectively, even dominantly, and start as needed in 2020? Or beat out one of the other two for a rotation spot?  

Porcello and Wacha are  less likely, in my view, to be successful in a non-starter role.

If he does relieve, Matz should look no further than Jeurys Familia, who was far worse than Matz as a starter in the minors, but flourished more often than not as a reliever since being converted to one.  If Matz relieves, let him do it with a chip on his shoulder.