Today we’re going to face off on a controversial topic when
it comes to professional athletics. Who
gets to play vs. how much is the player paid?
It’s rare but not unknown for clubs to bench someone who is not
productive despite a sizeable paycheck, but more often we see the big money
guys getting continual opportunities in order to prove their owners and GMs
right in having conned them into forking over the fat paycheck. How many games did the Mets give to folks
like Juan Lagares and Todd Frazier who were simply not getting it done? Paycheck had to be a big part of that.
The flip side, of course, are younger (or second-time-around
older) ballplayers not making much money, but also not getting many chances to
show what they can do if given the chance.
I’m not advocating that Luis Guillorme should be starting over Jeff McNeil
or Amed Rosario or even Robinson Cano.
However, to be Mr. Guillorme it has to burn a little to see guys like
Jed Lowrie getting babied to make sure they can earn their big paychecks while
he collects splinters sitting on the bench.
The topic today is not middle infielders or catchers or
centerfielders. On this fine Friday we
will instead look at the starting rotation and try to make some sense out of
who belongs there and who should learn how to bide his time out in the
bullpen.
Three of the pitchers are etched in stone in the starting
rotation. Having won back-to-back Cy
Young awards, Jacob deGrom is the best shortstop ever to pitch for the
Mets. Behind him you have the big man,
Noah Syndergaard, who has demonstrated what he’s capable of doing when he sets
his mind to the task. The third member
of the triumvirate is diminutive hurler Marcus Stroman who took a few starts to
get things right after crossing the border to the USA, but he demonstrated in
several starts why he was worth the price paid.
Now it starts to get interesting as you have three more
experienced starting pitchers but only two available slots for the taking. Steven Matz has always been one of those
tease-you kind of pitchers who can go from unhittable to unwatchable without any
warning. At his best he posts about a
strikeout per inning pitched, with 2.8 walks over the same interval. Those numbers are indeed pretty good, he’s
left handed (which helps), and he’s finally shown some stability without major
time lost to injury. His career ERA of
4.05 is respectable for a 4th or 5th starter and he’s
homegrown. He earns relatively little at
$5 million and many would expect it’s his southpaw hurling that will pretty much
ensure he gets one of these spots. He
did put in a few games out of the pen last year and Justin Wilson would likely
enjoy having another lefty out there.
The next pitcher to consider is Michael Wacha who has
delivered from the right side a Steven Matz type of career – very good when he’s
healthy, but staying healthy has been the challenge. Over his seven year career he’s logged just 9
games out of the pen. His career marks
of 59-39 with a 3.91 ERA are pretty impressive, and there’s no guarantee he
would pitch as effectively out of the pen.
He earns a modest amount of money on a one-year deal, so he’s likely
itching to prove his worth.
The tough one to swallow is Rick Porcello. Yes, he is a former All Star and Cy Young
winner, but that was back in the dark ages of 2016. He’s been flat-out awful for the three years
since then, including an embarrassing 5.52 ERA for the Red Sox last year. It’s no surprise they let him walk away when
his inflated contract expired. The Mets
jumped on him, bringing the NJ native “home” for less than half of what he used
to earn, but he’s still at double what Matz and Wacha will get. His prior history suggests he will get a huge
leg up to be in the starting rotation, but is that the right move? He has a big winning record of 149-118 but a
career ERA of 4.36.
Baseballreference.com has him projected to throw a decent number of
strikeouts and walks this year, but at a 4.99 ERA. I sure hope I’m wrong, but he appears on the
surface to be a somewhat less expensive gaffe in the mold of the Seattle deal
last year. The good news is that he’s
also on a one-year paper and hopefully he will turn it on to ensure more big
bucks in the future from whomever wants him.
There are a few warm bodies who are starters, including
Corey Oswalt, Walker Locket, Franklyn Kilome and others, but you wouldn’t think
they would have a shot at the big club except as fringe players out of the
bullpen.
My desire would be to see Matz and Wacha in the rotation
with Porcello serving as the emergency fill-in starter, refining his game out
of the pen, but that’s not typically how the Mets do things. For this club paycheck usually dictates
playing time, so expect right handed Wacha to be the odd man out with a $3
million salary (before incentives) giving him the least heft when it comes to
starting.
7 comments:
Reese, hopefully they will let the best performance dictate who pitches. Porcello could go either way I think. He could be great like his Cy Young season or struggle like last year. If he struggles hope they don't just keep him in just for the contract
Porcello actually did go 17-7 in 2018 with 190 strikeouts in 191 innings. Yes, the ERA was in the mid-4s, but it was a decent year. Last year may have been a post-season burnout year, and he has been good in even-numbered years.
I think it will be:
1. Jake
2. Thor
3. Stroman
4. Porcello
5. Wacha
Add Matz to the bullpen? It could be ultra lethal.
Yes
He won't be happy. Starting pitchers earn more than middle relievers.
I think Porcello will be a mid 4's ERA guy, having gotten away from the DH and the Green Monster. Not great, but not terrible. He seems to have winning in his DNA, so hopefully his DNA will outweigh his ERA.
All the starters sound healthy, honed, and ready. It will be tough to figure out who goes to the pen.
If David Peterson had been ready after his 49 minor league career starts, they'd have only acquired either Porcello or Wacha, but not both.
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