Reese Kaplan -- The Pen was Weaker Than the Sword

There were any number of reasons the Mets did not get off to the kind of start they needed last year.  In no particular order you would have to consider health of a great many players that was compromised before they even left Spring Training.  There was the skillset of the sophomore manager, Mickey Callaway.  There was the defense.  Then the baserunning speed.  Let’s not forget some of the members of the starting rotation.  However, if you wanted to pick one bullseye problem you would have to look no further than the occupants of the bullpen relied upon to save victories

How bad was it?  Well, the number are ugly and as they say, they don’t lie.  There are 30 teams in the major leagues, 15 in each of the two constructs.  The Mets overall finished 24^th in relief pitching, coincidentally 12^th out of 15 teams in the NL.  Even for as much ballyhoo as the Nationals got for their pen, they finished ahead of the Mets.  So did the Phillies.  So did the Braves.  The only trailers were the Marlins (expected), the Rockies (also expected) and the Pirates.

To get into the specific numbers, the Mets relievers were not bad when it came to striking out opponents.  They notched 9.63 Ks per 9 IP.  That would actually put them in the  upper echelon, trailing three who broke the 10K per game barrier – the Yankees, Red Sox and Brewers. 

Where things started to get truly ugly for the Mets was the way they handed out baserunners.  They coughed up 3.63 walks per 9 IP.  That’s bad but not horrific.  There were indeed clubs who approached 5 golden rings of free passes.  No, the  truly bad number was how well opponents hit against the Mets’ bullpen.  Where to start…

You hope when you track a player’s BAA with respect to a particular pitcher he can approach a solid number like .280 which suggests he has a pretty good chance.  For the Mets’ relievers, the BAA number was a horrific .312.  Only the Royals and Twins were worse.  That generosity (along with the walks) led the Mets’ pen to 26^th place with a 4.99 ERA.  They were not quite as generous with the long ball, faring 22^nd place overall. 

Any way you slice it, it doesn’t fill Mets fans nor starting pitchers with a lot of confidence that things are suddenly dramatically improved.  We have already recited stats from Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia, both of whom pitched games as if they wore blinders.  Each had some health issues and Diaz was trying to singlehandedly make the dubious trade look balanced.  The hope is that they will indeed revert to career form in 2020.

After that it gets pretty dicey.  Seth Lugo has been terrific out of the pen but prefers to be a starter.  Dellin Betances may or may not be back to full strength.  If he is, that’s a HUGE boon.  Justin Wilson did quite well last year, too, so there may be some life vests in the earlier part of the pen.

After them, however, comes a great many arms of suspect value.  Brad Brach was brought back after demonstrating he had something left to give with a 3.68 ERA which is practically All-Star material by Mets’ reliever standards, though below his career mark of 3.33. 

Robert Gsellman is still counted on being productive despite three straight interrupted seasons in which he did little to distinguish himself.  He teased a 2.42 ERA for 8 games in 2016, but it’s been all downhill ever since with marks of 5.19 for 2017, 4.28 in 2018 and 4.66 in 2019.  (And remember, he’s one of the team’s quality veteran arms!)

Beyond that you have a lot of questionable pitchers or legit pitchers with question marks.  This group would include Paul Sewald, Jacob Rhame, Tyler Bashlor, Stephen Nogosek, Chasen Shreve, Matt Blackham, Daniel Zamora, Drew Smith and Steven Gonsalves.  You also have talented starter who can’t stay healthy, Michael Wacha, slated for the pen.

This whole exercise would be meaningless if Diaz and Familia returned to form, Lugo stayed healthy and Brach supplants Gsellman in the pen.  Throw in a recovery by Betances and all might not be lost.  However, at this time the pen still looks mighty suspect and Luis Rojas is going to have to hope that Jeremy Hefner stocked up on magic beans.