Tom Brennan - DAVID PETERSON COMPARED TO CURRENT METS HOMEGROWN STARTERS

"HOW THE HECK DOES PETERSON STACK UP?"

David Peterson and his left arm hold the answer.

Peterson did not have a great year last season from the standpoint of wins.  Three in 24 starts, to be precise, pitching for a punchless Binghamton AA team.

But the tall former first rounder is progressing up the ladder nonetheless.  This year is most certainly to be spent in AAA.

Is his progress too slow?  Can we divine his ETA?

Let's compare his minor league progress to that of three current Mets starters...Jake, Noah and Steve (I'm on a first name basis with them, but for some reason they think my name is Tom Who?)

David Peterson has had 49 career starts since being drafted. He has a record of only 10-16, but as Jake surely knows, a pitcher can only do so much to rack up W's.

Peterson (whose career started at age 21) has the following stat line:

49 Starts, 10-16, 3.63 ERA, 248 IP, 243 hits, 243 Ks, 1.26 WHIP.  0 IP in AAA. Current age 24 years, 2 mo.

By comparison:

Jake deGrom started his career at age 22 - he also had to recover from TJS - his minors went:

58 Starts, 21-11, 3.62 ERA, 323 innings, 333 hits, 267 Ks, 1,28 WHIP, 24 starts and 104 IP in AAA, MLB Debut 25 yr, 11 mo.

Noah Syndergaard started his career at age 17, and naturally, the age factor meant more minor leagues training and seasoning was needed.  He rolled as follows:

93 Starts, 10 Relief, 35-20, 469 IP, 430 hits, 528 Ks, 1.20 WHIP, 31 starts and 163 IP in AAA, MLB debut 22 years, 9 mo.

Steve Matz was also, like Jake, a TJS victim, which delayed his rise, but he had the by far superior ERA of this quartet:

69 Starts (excl. rehab), 25-21, 2.40 ERA, 398 IP, 327 hits, 413 Ks, 1.14 WHIP, 14 starts and 90 IP in AAA, MLB Debut 24 yr, 1 mo.

David Peterson could explode this season, but what can be drawn from the above comparison?  

Several things:

For Jake, other than being superior to Peterson in wins and losses, his stats were pretty similar to Peterson - but Jake did have that TJS recovery cycle and was learning his trade, having pitched a lot less than Peterson prior to his being drafted.

For Noah, he started a lot younger in the minors, but the payback is he made his MLB debut far faster than Peterson will.

For Matz, his numbers as a fellow lefty are far superior to Peterson's, and he had already (despite a prolonged TJS absence) made his debut younger than Peterson's current age.

Most significantly, Noah, Jake and Steve averaged 119 innings in AAA, and Peterson has none.  The lowest AAA training stint was Steve Matz, who still required 90 IP and 14 starts.

And lastly, on a sheer velocity scale, the rank is Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz and Peterson - and being the least of the 4 in velocity is not a plus for Peterson.

All that says to me is that Peterson most likely is a late season call up and member of the 2021 rotation - if he proves to be good enough.  He has to be good enough to be at least an SP 5 for a contending team, which is a high standard to reach.

Step one for David is to at least double that 10 career win total with 10 or more wins this season in AAA. The ability to win starts is essential at the big league level to be a starter on a contender.  If he were still here, Mr. 363, lefty Warren Spahn, would say that is exactly right.

I wish David godspeed in 2020.  Effective AAA innings, lots of wins, and a late 2020 debut.